The New York Yankees have fallen flat since reeling off a season-high 10-game win streak, but there’s reason for optimism in the clubhouse due to Saturday’s pitching matchup.  It’s time to take a closer look at Ivan Nova, and see if he’s worth backing as one of our MLB picks.

Two teams headed in opposite directions (for the time being)

The Yankees have dropped three consecutive games, including a 6-4 setback in the series opener on Friday night, but still hold a 1.5-game lead over the Baltimore Orioles in the American League East standings. On the other side of the diamond, the Mets have rattled off four wins in a row, with the pitching staff limiting opponents to just seven combined runs over that span. It’s still important to note that the Bronx Bombers have won nine of the last 14 meetings in Queens.

Ivan NovaThere’s no place like the road for Nova

You’re going to have a hard time finding a more dominant stat on Saturday than Yankees starting pitcher Ivan Nova (9-2, 4.32 ERA) being undefeated in his last 15 starts away from the Bronx, posting a 12-0 record and 3.17 ERA in that situation. The right-hander has also managed to win his last five starts overall, including a 4-1 road victory over the Washington Nationals last time out, giving up one run and seven hits over 7.2 innings. In two career starts versus the Mets, Nova is 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA, but has allowed them to hit for a .360 average.

Chris Young (1-1, 3.06 ERA) will be making his fourth start of the 2012 MLB campaign for the Mets, coming off a 3-1 home loss to the Cincinnati Reds, surrendering three runs (two earned) and nine hits over seven innings. In two lifetime starts versus the Yankees, the tall right-hander is 1-0 with a 6.23 ERA, but hasn’t faced them since 2005.

Hard to find a situational edge on either side

Both teams enter Saturday’s affair with a winning record in interleague play, but the Yankees are 5-5 as a road favorite of -125 to -150 this season, while the Mets are 11-13 as a home underdog of +125 to +150 since the start of the 2010 campaign.

 

Young has suffered greatly in McClelland’s zone

Sports bettors should definitely take into consideration that Young has lost both of his career starts with umpire Tim McClelland behind home plate, allowing 12 earned runs in 10 innings of work.  Nova didn’t earn a decision in a 8-6 home win over the Tampa Bay Rays in his lone outing in this situation on Sept. 20, 2010, giving up three runs (two earned) and three hits over 5.2 frames.

Prediction

There’s no question that the MLB betting odds are inflated in this Subway Series matchup, but it’s hard to ignore that the Yankees are 18-4 in Nova’s last 22 road starts. The visitor also holds a massive edge in terms of the bullpen, ranking third in the majors (2.75 ERA), while the host is dead last in that category (5.34 ERA).

Pick: New York Yankees -146