The inconsistency of Cole Hamels coupled with the current state of the Phillies' bullpen makes the Washington Nationals a solid play tonight as big dogs at Citizen's Bank Park in Philadelphia.
I’ll get this out of the way right now: The Philadelphia Phillies are probably going to win this game. That said, sometimes the odds dictate betting on a team you don’t always expect to win. If you make 100 bet at +270 odds, you will have to win only 28% of them to turn a profit.
So the question tonight is, do you believe the Nationals have a 28% chance of winning this game? Going up against a starter that hasn’t been consistent this season and one of the shakiest bullpens in the sport right now, I’d have to argue that they do.
Cole Hamels is going to be a star pitcher in the MLB for years to come if injuries don’t slow him down. He has the stuff, and when he’s on he’s downright lethal. But with one of the best offenses in baseball behind him, Hamels is only 9-9 this year. Some of that has to do with the bullpen’s shakiness, but Hamels hasn’t really been his “sure thing” self this year, either.
Hamels’ last eight games give a pretty good picture of his inconsistencies this season. In half of his last eight games, he’s been damn near untouchable; Sept 11 (6.2 IP, one run, six Ks), Sept 1 (nine IP, zero runs, nine Ks), Aug 26 (eight IP, zero runs, seven Ks), and Aug 16 (six IP, two runs).
The other half? Four earned runs surrendered in six innings or less on Sept 6, Aug 21, and Aug 8; and six earned runs in five innings on Aug 2.
Maybe today will be one of those off days.
For Nationals starting pitcher Ross Detwiler, 2009 has been a disaster; in 10 starts and one relief appearance Detwiler has an 0-5 record with a 6.17 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP.
Detwiler was the sixth overall pick in the 2007 draft, and while he clearly has a lot of work to do, he does possess plenty of raw talent. This will be his first start since being sent back down to Triple A back in early July, and he may have a few new tricks up his sleeve this time around. He pitched two shutout innings in relief against the Marlins on the 12.
Both Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge have been extremely shaky in the closer role of late, and the Phillies face a very serious issue as they head towards the playoffs; how are they going to get outs in the late innings?
As bad as Detwiler was the last time he was up, he did give up four runs or less in six of his 10 starts, and three runs or less in four of them. Even if he doesn’t pitch wonderfully tonight, there is a good chance that he can keep the Nationals in the game if Hamels isn’t on his best tonight. And if it’s a close one down the stretch, I’ll love having the +270 against an imploding bullpen like the Phillies’.
Feel like a long shot? Of course. But at this price, I think it is one worth taking.
Free Pick: Nationals +270