The Yankees should struggle scoring runs vs. left-handed pitchers until Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada get back in the lineup. Meanwhile, Andy Pettitte has been steady as usual. Stay Under here.
By calling for this contest between the New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers to reach double figures as the “coin toss” level for this one, the oddsmakers are projecting this game like a warm summer afternoon with each of these teams having all hands on deck. That is far from what we have here. Instead the projection is for a cool and dreary afternoon in Detroit with the wind blowing in, and a pair of offenses that are not capable of living up to their reputations right now will be hard-pressed to get this one near the high Total.
The Yankees show a clear vulnerability to left-handers, and it will be that way until they can get Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada back in the lineup. That means a chance for Nate Robertson to begin to get his base numbers down near where they belong, and it is the out-of-sync season by Robertson that helps to bring us this value. The pitching forms show Robertson at 1-4/6.64, and that looks like quite a fall for a guy that worked to a 4.34 tune over 583 innings from 2005-07. But is that really the case? Over the last three seasons, Robertson created the 4.34 by producing a 1.38 WHIP,with 3.0 Walks-Per-9; 5.8 Strikeouts-Per-9; and 1.2 Home Runs-Per-9. Yet so far this season his WHIP is 1.55; walks are 2.4; Strikeouts 6.9; and Home Runs 1.3. In other words his stuff has not fallen off at all, but an inordinate percentage of runners that have reached base against him have scored. That is the sort of thing that can happen over a short sample in baseball, but the bottom line is that Robertson has thrown the ball at a rate that could call for an ERA two full runs lower than where it is. We get value when that happens.
Meanwhile Andy Pettitte continues to be Andy Pettitte - a solid and dependable 3.77 over his first 43 innings this season, with good command of the strike zone (12 walks), and an almost 2:1 ratio of ground-ball outs to fly outs. And we can expect the Yankee veteran to work with a special chip on his shoulder here - two starts back he carried a lead into the 5th inning vs. these Tigers before seeing it slip away, and in his last outing he left with a lead against Cleveland that the bullpen did not hold. That bullpen is well-positioned to handle the latter stages here, much like they did yesterday, when Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera only needed 21 pitches to retire the side in the final two innings.
Neither of those two bring a fatigue rating to this one, and it is worth noting just how good Rivera has been this season - 10 saves already, not having allowed a single run.
Free Pick: Yankees, Tigers Under 10 (-120)