NY Yankees vs. Oakland A's: MLB Picks

The NY Yankees and the Oakland A's meet for tonight's series opener. Join us as we break down the game's odds and share our MLB picks.

Get ready for some late nights the next few days followed by a Sunday matinee as we bring you all four games in the Yankees-Athletics series. SBR has spared no expense in stocking my 5-Hour Energy supply, plus has agreed to fund part of my martini tab in order to preview this entire set for the masses.

In all honesty, I'll just take short naps after dinner then get up and watch Thursday, Friday and Saturday games with a couple of glasses of sweet tea, but the other bit sounded more exciting.

This is a big matchup in all seriousness, and it pits two of the hottest teams running in a classic David vs. Goliath confrontation. Oakland bounced back from just its second loss of the month to gain an exciting split with the Rangers on Wednesday in walk-off fashion, and New York has been blowing and going the last 50 games, the AL East lead ballooning to 10 games following a rain-shortened win to lead into this 7-game road trip.

The set gets underway Thursday night, and baseball odds makers have opened with New York a -115 favorite and a 7.5 run total priced about 15 cents OVER. Oakland rookie AJ Griffin will toe the rubber for the A's against Freddy Garcia. 

Trends between the two suggest that the New York Yankees are in great shape to continue their torrid ways this weekend while the Athletics' surge back into the picture comes to a crashing halt. New York's recent record in Oakland goes beyond mere mortal descriptions like amazing, stupendous and unreal. The Yanks have swept the A's their last three trips into town and have won 17 of the last 21 played in Oakland. Not only have they cashed the moneyline the last nine games, the Yankees have cashed the run line each of those clashes.

Griffin got the call when Oakland lost Brandon McCarthy to the disabled list with a bum shoulder, and the 24-year-old has been remarkably consistent since making his big league debut June 24. Consistency also led to a rather rapid ascent through the minors after being a 13th-round pick out of San Diego University in 2010; the righthander posted a 3.13 ERA in 280+ minor league innings, and is half a run below that in his first four big league starts, each quality efforts that lasted six innings. 

He grabbed his first win the last time out at Minnesota in what is his worst showing so far (6 IP, 3 ER). A bit odd that his worst game was against the Twinkies following excellent outings vs. more formidable lineups in the Rangers and Red Sox. But that's baseball, and as far as we're concerned when it comes to betting baseball, the most important stat is a 3-1 record for the A's when he pitches, good enough for $2.50 on the return.

Facing the Yankees for the first time is always a big adrenaline factor for a rookie like Griffin, and the good news is Griffin will be going up against a pitcher who hasn't exactly been a ball of fire this year, and one the Athletics have had some success against in the past. 

Garcia has certainly been better since moving back into the rotation for an injured Andy Pettitte than he was back in April when he posted a 12.51 ERA in four starts. The Yankees are 2-1 in his three July assignments and Garcia has lopped more than a run off his season ERA in that span. Still, those five walks in five innings to the Angels last Saturday weren't too comforting, and the Yankees bullpen plus their home run power deserve most of the credit for that victory. 

Oakland has consistently hit Garcia from his early days with the Mariners in the late-90s. Some of his 5.22 lifetime ERA (182 IP) was inflated during the Steroids Era, and his last two starts at the venerable Coliseum were feast or famine (nice outing in 2011, one of his worst career starts in July 2010). 

Having recently suggested in a short-term fade/follow article that Oakland might be a good team to follow, I find myself in a bit of a conundrum with this game. Do I buck the recent New York dominance in this stadium and try a spin on the A's train, or do I follow the Yankees and expect them to continue their winning ways in Oakland? In the end I'll do neither and add a play the OVER to my MLB picks for the first game of this series.