5* graded play on the Oakland A’s as they take on the Minnesota Twins in Game 2 of this three game series set to start at 7:10 PM ET. Find out why John Ryan is expecting the Oakland to upset the MLB odds this evening.
The A’s got off a solid start for the second half and if
they want to challenge the ‘big boys’ on the block in the American league West,
they have to put together something close to the Money Ball 20-game run. Yet,
they don’t need to win every game in succession, but they do need to defeat the
losing record teams, like the Twins, when the play them.
Oakland has won seven of the last
10 games and are nine games back of Texas in the AL West division. The A’s
though are just 1 ½ games from achieving an American League wild card berth.
There are seven teams in the American League bunched together and separated by
just 1 ½ games. An eighth team, Toronto, is just 2 ½ games behind. So, yes,
Oakland has realistic expectations to make the playoffs.
Supporting my graded MLB picks is a
system that has produced a record of 128-139 for just 48% winners, but has made
70.3 units per one unit wagered since 1997. The beauty of this system is that
it has averaged a +163 dog play to make the small fortune in profits. Play
against American League home favorites with a money
line of -110 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on
Here is a second system that has
produced a 111-69 mark for 62% winners and has made 43.7 units per one unit
wagered since 1997. Play on all American League teams when the
money line is +125 to -125 with an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or
better on the season and facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA
is 3.20 or better on the season. The average play has been a +102 play, which
is close to what the MLB odds are for this game.
Oakland has some of the best
pitching in MLB ranking fourth with a staff ERA of 3.38, 10th with 51 quality
starts, fifth with a 1.24 WHIP, and third allowing a .240 opponent batting
average. They are arguably the worst hitting team in the majors, but their team
averages have been steadily climbing over the last month and they are starting
to score more runs per game. They have scored six runs twice in the last seven
games, but where the A’s are strong is on defense, where they have allowed no
more than two runs in just two of the past eight games.
The Oakland bullpen is vastly
superior to that of the Twins and this will be a major factor down the stretch
in the late innings. The A’s have posted a 2.78 ERA and a 1.182 WHIP, allowing
just 17 home runs in 87 games spanning 259 innings of work. In 45 road games
they have posted a 2.99 ERA with a 1.203 WHIP and allowed just seven ‘dingers’
spanning 126 ? innings of work.
By comparison, the Twins bullpen
has posted a 3.68 ERA and a 1.271 WHIP, and allowed 31 home runs in 86 games
spanning 303 innings of work. In 43 home games, they have posted a 4.00 ERA and
a 1.325 WHIP spanning 157 ? innings of work.
The A’s starting pitcher, Milone,
has been a great contributor to the teams’ success this season. he has posted a
13-3 making 12.6 units per one unit wagered against
the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last two seasons. Twins are
just 13-28 losing 13.8 units per one unit wagered when facing the money line in
home games after three or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.
My Pick: Take
the Oakland A’s.