5* graded play UNDER the total on today's Philadelphia-Miami game. The Phils have shown that they are a very strong team, periodically, in the second half of the season. Starter Cole Hamels is perhaps the best example, coming off his 4-0 complete game shutout of the Marlins Monday.
Team Rankings and Comparisons
Both teams continue to struggle
scoring runs consistently. The Phillies offense ranks 15th in MLB with a .255
team batting average, 22nd averaging 4.13 runs per game, 13th averaging 8.81
hits per game, 17th averaging 0.99 home runs per game, third best striking out
an average of just 6.49 times per game, and 24th leaving an average of 3.63
runners in scoring position per game.
By comparison, the Miami Marlins
rank 24th with a .242 team batting average, 30th averaging just 3.68 runs per
game, 25th averaging 8.05 hits per game, 26th averaging 0.84 home runs per
game, 13th averaging 7.43 strikeouts per game, and ninth leaving an average of
3.40 runners in scoring position per game.
Game Situations Supporting the
Miami is in a series of reliable
game situations for the UNDER play to be a cashing ticket. They are a solid
21-7 UNDER, making 13.3 units per one unit wagered after scoring one or fewer runs in a loss to a division rival over the last two seasons; 53-32 UNDER, making 17.5 units per one unit wagered after a loss by four runs or more over
the last three seasons; 22-9 UNDER making 12.0 units per one unit wagered after
getting shut out over the last three seasons; 28-14 UNDER making 12.6 units per
one unit wagered after scoring two or fewer runs this season; 25-11 UNDER
making 12.8 units after scoring two runs or less 2two straight games
encompassing the last two seasons.
Both teams are struggling with
the Phillies batting just .216 with a .285 on-base-percentage, and scoring an
average of 3.7 runs per game. Miami is batting .222 with a .266
on-base-percentage, and averaging 3.9 runs per game. So, even with an
inconsistent Kyle Kendrick on the hill for the Phillies, he possesses the ‘stuff’
to contain this weak hitting Marlins lineup. Josh Johnson starts for Miami and
he has posted a 2.29 ERA with a 1.169 WHIP and has struck out 17 batters
spanning this last three starts and 19 ? innings of work.
The Marlins have been installed by MLB odds makers as -153 home favorites. The total sits at 7.5.
Pick: Take the UNDER
Philadelphia vs. Miami
In this matinee, the Phillies will
send their ace Roy Halladay to the hill to face Miami’s Mark Buehrle. Halladay
went on the disabled list May 27 and made his next start July 17. When he
returned, his fastball was sometimes not even reaching 90 MPH, which allowed
hitters to sit on other pitches and work counts to their favor, knowing he would
throw a very hittable pitch. Well, that time is behind Hallday as his last two
starts have seen his fastball back between 92 and 94 MPH, and his curveball has
never been better.
In his last start, he completed
eight innings, allowed just two hits, and one earned run, walked none and
struck out eight batters in 3-1 win against St. Louis. The Cardinals are the
best offensive team in the National League and arguably the best in MLB, so for
any pitcher to throw a two-hitter against them is an elite performance indeed.
Now, Halladay will carry this momentum against one of the weakest hitting teams
in MLB, and I strongly believe he will dominate the Marlins.
Mark Buehrle is a solid starter, but is just not
in the same league as Halladay. He has posted a 9-11 record with a 3.80 ERA and
1.23 WHIP and has struck out just 88 batters in his 23 starts spanning 147
innings of work. Moreover, he has allowed a horrid .328 batting average to the
current members of the Phillies in their respective careers spanning 137
Pick: Take the Phillies Wednesday afternoon.