Tampa Bay broke out of their 11-game funk last night in Game 1 and will have a huge pitching advantage on Tuesday with Jeff Neimann facing the Baltimore Orioles.
September has not been very kind to the Tampa Bay Rays. After picking up a win over Boston on September 2, the Rays proceeded to get swept by the Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox en route to an 11-game losing streak, finally snapped last night in a game against the Baltimore Orioles.
Last night’s win brought the Rays to 2-12 (-11.30 units) on the moneyline in September. The losing streak has all but completely shut the door on potentially fighting for the wild card spot down the stretch.
But the Tampa Bay Rays aren’t the type of team that packs in a season. They ran into a rough patch of games against superior teams at home, and everything that could go against them did. Facing Baltimore last night for the first time as a favorite in nine games, the Rays responded with an impressive 8-4 win.
I expect them to pick up another win tonight with rookie Jeff Neimann on the mound.
Despite the team’s struggles, both of Neimann’s starts in September have been lights out. His September line reads: 14.2 IP, 1.23 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 14 K, .237 BAA. And this was against two very good offenses in Detroit and New York.
The 2004 first round pick has been an extremely pleasant surprise for the Rays this season, amassing a 12-5 record with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. He wasn’t even projected to make the staff during the spring, and now he finds himself in strong contention for AL rookie of the year honors.
Opposite Neimann will be Jason Berken, complete with his 4-11 record, 6.02 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP.
Berken has done a decent job getting out of jams, but he still allows far too many base runners, and because of this he rarely goes deep into games. In 20 starts this season, Berken has only completed the sixth inning five times, and hasn’t gone deeper than the sixth inning in his last 15 starts.
This makes way for Major League Baseball’s 27th-ranked bullpen, complete with an 18-25 record and a 4.84 ERA.
The -135 price seems far too low here with these two pitchers on the mound. Linemakers might still be placing some emphasis on how bad of a month this has been for the Rays, but going up against the Tigers, Red Sox and Yankees, I think they were just outclassed at this point in the season. Baltimore’s 4-7 record this month doesn’t blow me away, either.
Tampa Bay still has a pretty good ball club, and going against a team that they can beat with the better starting pitcher on the mound, I think they are well worth a play.
The Play: Tampa Bay Rays ML -135