The Rays are always a candidate to fade after playing the Bronx Bombers, which could benefit the Indians in the opener of a four-game series at Progressive Field. Let’s find out if you should add the Tribe as one of your MLB picks on Thursday night.
Tampa Bay is simply
trying to hold on
The Rays will be one
of the happiest team to reach the MLB All-Star break, as they’ve been decimated
by injuries for much of the 2012 campaign. Tampa Bay sits in third place
in the current AL East standings, as it awaits the potential return of third
baseman Evan Longoria after the Midsummer Classic is played in Kansas City on
July 10. Cleveland has been playing solid baseball in winning four of its
last five games, including two home victories to win a series against the
red-hot Los Angeles Angels.
Hellickson may need
another start to regain his form
Rays starting pitcher
Jeremy Hellickson (4-4, 3.44 ERA) has managed to throw just 6.1 innings since
June 14, which could play an important factor in this affair. The
right-hander had to leave his previous start in the third inning after taking a
line drive off his shin, which directly followed a disappointing effort in his
return to the mound after experiencing right shoulder inflammation in early
June. In five road starts this year, Hellickson has garnered a 1-0 record
and 4.30 ERA, surrendering six home runs in 29.1 combined innings.
Josh Tomlin (4-5, 5.85
ERA) has watched the club alternate wins and losses over his last seven
outings, picking up an 11-5 road victory over the Baltimore Orioles in his last
effort. The 27-year-old is 1-3 with a 5.19 ERA in six home starts, which
is far different than his 8-3 mark and 3.58 ERA in that situation in 13
appearances last season. In two lifetime appearances versus the Rays,
Tomlin enters with a 0-1 record and 5.25 ERA, serving up three big flies in 12
frames.
Don’t get trapped
(taking the dog)
The current MLB
betting odds are definitely going to invite action on the visitor in this
contest, but the Rays are 6-11 as a road underdog of +100 to +125 this season,
while the Indians are 26-19 at home with a money line of -100 to -125. Cleveland has also won eight of nine home games with a total of 9 to 9.5 in
2012.
Prediction
Both starting pitchers
are not throwing the ball very well, which has me looking at this matchup
purely from a situational standpoint. Cleveland is one of the best teams
in the majors when opening a series, winning 19 of its last 26 games in that
role. Tampa Bay is coming off a hard-fought divisional series and has
dropped nine of its last 10 games against AL Central opponents.
When it comes to placing my MLB picks for this evening's game, I am going to have to side with the Tribe in this matchup. Despite
Tomlin’s recent form, I expect the Indians to improve to 14-4 in his last 18
starts as a home favorite.
Pick: Cleveland
Indians -115