Red Sox vs. Marlins: MLB Pick

A streak-buster will result from Monday's prime-time matchup in Miami between the Marlins and Red Sox. Both enter this series having been swept over the weekend. ESPN covers the double-Josh clash as Boston's Josh Beckett squares off against Miami's Josh Johnson.

The majority of the outlets monitored by SBRodds.com have the Red Sox slight favorites with some showing the game a pick. We'll call it Boston -110 for a consensus baseball betting line with the 7.5 run total a little more expensive for the OVER. 

The Marlins and Red Sox are each spiraling downward to begin the set and a combined 60-60 (-10.2 units) for the year.  Boston is two games below .500 with Miami two above, not exactly the records we expected to see from teams that were picked to finish second in their respective divisions. The Red Sox were +225 behind the New York Yankees (-150) in the AL East while the Marlins were +375 behind the Philadelphia Phillies (-185) in the NL East. 

How bad has it gotten in Boston? The Washington Nationals' franchise had never won a game at Fenway Park in nine previous tries, yet managed to sweep the Red Sox this past weekend. That concluded a 1-5 homestand for Boston who has dropped six of the last seven to drop back into the division cellar. 

The Red Sox now head out on the road for the week, following this series in Miami with a trip to Wrigley Field to meet the Chicago Cubs. Injuries have definitely played a key role in Boston's sluggish start, but one has to wonder how long that excuse will keep manager Bobby Valentine's head off the chopping block. 

As bad as things are in Boston, they're even worse in Miami where the Marlins are 0-6 to begin this homestand following sweeps by both the Atlanta Braves and the Tampa Bay Rays. The Fish were tied for first in the NL East a week ago, but now sit five games out and in fourth, only the Phillies keeping them out of the basement. 

Things haven't gone splendidly for the always controversial Ozzie Guillen in his first season at the Miami helm, and as impulsive as owner Jeffrey Loria has been in the past, perhaps both Guillen and Valentine will be heading back to their ESPN gigs before too long. 

Beckett has strung together five pretty good outings since his embarrassing performance at Fenway Park a little more than a month ago. The righthander has worked at least seven innings in all five of the assignments to shave his ERA down almost two full runs to 4.04. Still, Beckett has lost the last two and the Red Sox are 5-6 with him on the mound in 2012, which has his backers wading in 2.4 units of red ink. 

It will mark the first time that Beckett has pitched against the club he came up with in 2001 and helped win a World Series title for in 2003. We should not read too much into the nostalgia factor, however, since it has been seven years since Beckett pitched for the Miami franchise, not a single player remains from that team and the new stadium isn't going to bring back any memories for him or any other Red Sox player. 

Likewise, Johnson has turned around early struggles in the campaign with five quality starts his last six times out, reducing his ERA more than two full runs. Miami won all six of his May trips to the bump, but couldn't extend that to seven straight to begin June last Wednesday at home vs. Atlanta. Johnson pitched into the eighth and allowed just two runs, but Braves pitching was even better in a 2-1 win as +135 underdogs. 

These two clubs will meet again a week from now in Boston, the first time the Sox and Fish have played home-&-home interleague sets in the same season. The gang from Beantown owns a 15-9 all-time lead in the series, and will be playing their first games at the new Marlins Park after winning six of nine at Miami's former stadium.

Taking a Chance: We can only speculate how Valentine will fill out his lineup card since he won't have the luxury of the designated hitter tonight in a National League park. He could plug Adrian Gonzalez into right field with David Ortiz at first base, like he did when the Sox played in Philadelphia a few weeks ago, and will then likely give at least one of those players the night off on Tuesday when Boston faces Miami lefty Mark Buehrle.