The Los Angeles Dodgers ended a seven-game losing streak with Sunday’s 8-3 win against the New York Mets, cashing as 142 home favorites. Don Mattingly’s squad continues its stay at Dodger Stadium with Monday’s opener against the Cincinnati Reds.
Joe Freda’s 2012 MLB Record: 31-31-1 (-0.83 ROI)
Both clubs are slated to start right-handed hurlers, with Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey (5-6, 4.42 ERA) facing Los Angeles’ Chad Billinglsey (4-7, 4.18 ERA). Sportsbooks opened Bailey as a 135 road favorite, while first setting the ‘total’ at a flat seven.
Bailey departs earlyBailey logged his third loss in five starts with Cincinnati’s 8-4 defeat as a minus 107 home choice against the Milwaukee Brewers. The 26-year-old allowed five runs over four innings, giving up long balls to Milwaukee’s Rickie Weeks and Cody Ransom.
Reds outfielder Ryan Ludwick cracked a pair of solo shot homers, finishing 2-for-4. Ludwick’s mates Brandon Phillips and Miguel Cairo drove in one run each, while Jay Bruce left three men on base in a 0-for-4 night.
The contest’s combined 12 runs soared above the ‘total’ of 7.5, lifting the OVER to 5-2-1 in Bailey’s last eight outings. Cincinnati was edged out in hits, 11-7, while Reds first baseman
Joey Votto recorded one of his squad’s two errors.
Billingsley continues slideBillingsley dropped a third straight decision in Wednesday’s 3-0 setback for Los Angeles as a 133 road dog against the San Francisco Giants. The seventh-year hurler gave up all three of San Francisco’s runs, allowing nine hits over six innings.
Dodgers second baseman Jerry Hairston went 2-for-4 at the plate, while Billingsley helped his own cause with a double as part of a 1-for-4 day. Los Angeles’ Tony Gwynn and Juan Uribe were held to a combined 0-for-6, leaving four men on base.
The tight affair plunged below the ‘total’ of seven, ending a 3-0 run for the OVER in Billingsley’s prior trio of starts. Dodgers slugger Andre Ethier left early with an oblique strain, leaving his status “questionable” after missing four straight games since.
Back the UNDER in L.A.Monday’s first pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. (ET). Ethier’s uncertain status is joined by Cincinnati’s Joey Votto (.350 BA, 14 HRs), who is “questionable” due to a knee injury.
I am adding the UNDER to my night of MLB picks, looking for a tight opener between these foes. Los Angeles’ scoring surge in Sunday night’s win came with six of their eight runs being unearned, while the UNDER is 3-0-1 in Cincinnati’s last four road games against right-handed starters.
Bailey should settle down in this road spot, giving up just six runs over his last 30 innings of action away from home. The Texas native has surrendered just two homers all season in opposing stadiums (46 2/3 IP), with neither coming against a National League club.
Billingsley has allowed just one long ball in his last six home starts (31 IP). Cincinnati’s Drew Stubbs has one of his squad’s best track records against Billingsley with one homer in a 4-for-9 lifetime stretch, but comes into the series hitting a cold 0-for-15 over his last five games.
The statuses of Ethier and Votto should play a key role in the late MLB betting ‘steam’ on the matchup’s ‘total,’ but the UNDER would still be my choice even with one or both penciled into the affair. Ethier has gone 0-for-9 in his career against Bailey, including four strikeouts, while Votto has no homers in 21 at-bat’s facing Billingsley.
The UNDER has collected at 8-3 in Los Angeles’ last 11 home dates with a ‘total’ set between seven and 8.5, while going 5-1 in Cincinnati’s last six road spots as a favorite. Look for UNDER tickets to get the money again here, with both lineups finding octane at a premium.