Roy Oswalt Leads Houston Astros +100 over Chicago Cubs

Over the last few seasons, Roy Oswalt has gotten into the habit of starting the season off slow and then finding his game and finishing the season strong.

Roy Oswalt has found his game.

In 11 starts in April and May, Oswalt went 1-2 in 62.1 IP with a 4.62 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP and 47 strikeouts.

Since then, in 10 starts in June and July: 5-2, 73 IP, 2.84 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 57 Ks.

With command of all of his pitches, Roy Oswalt is still among the best in the game. His four starts in July have been among his sharpest with a 2.40 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP as hitters are batting only .184 against him this month. The Astros have won the game in Oswalt’s last five trips to the mound.

As well as Oswalt has always pitched in Houston, he has actually been even better on the road over this 10 game stretch spanning June and July. In five road games over this span, Oswalt has gone at least seven innings (including three complete games) in every game and has surrendered only one run in four of the five games. He has a 4-1 record with a 1.98 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP over this stretch of road games.

Ryan Dempster was having a pretty solid season before a fractured toe sent him to the DL. While it isn’t the type of injury that is likely to linger, getting back up to game speed after spending a month on the DL usually takes a start or two. And before his DL stint, Dempster hadn’t been particularly sharp, surrendering eight hits and at least two walks in all three of his most recent outings.

With the Cubs winning five straight and the Astros losing three straight, I think this line has a lot to do with the way these clubs are trending and not the actual match up on the field. With the way Oswalt has been pitching on the road, I wouldn’t even consider home field advantage much of a plus for the Cubs tonight.

At even money, take the finely tuned Roy Oswalt over the fresh off the disabled list Ryan Dempster.

The Pick: Houston Astros +100