The Padres, one of the worst teams in baseball take on the best team, the Rangers. Matt Harrison and
journeyman Jason Marquis will take the hill. Marquis has been a great addition
to the Pads rotation but will he be enough to shut down the dangerous Texas
The return of Jason
Marquis was released
from the Twins after he posted an ERA well over 6, going 46 innings with just 22
strike outs to 19 walks. The Padres picked him up, and he has been stellar. In his
last start against Seattle, he went 6 1/3rd scoreless innings while scattering 6
hits. Over two starts with the Pads, he owns a 1.46 ERA. Marquis can still be a
valuable pitcher, especially when pitching in the spacious PetCo Park. When we
look at the numbers, Jason really hasn't been as bad as his 6.60 ERA
would indicate. He owns a great ground ball percentage of 54.4 and his xFIP is
4.80, almost a full 2 points lower than his ERA. He has been burned by a 69%
strand rate with a .352 batting average of balls in play and an insane 24%
HR/FB ratio, meaning that when runners have reached base, they have crossed
the plate; when the ball is hit in the air, it has gone yard, but with a 54%
ground ball ratio, those numbers have got to start coming down and that is quite
possibly what we are seeing now with him pitching for the Padres.
Matt Harrison is one
of the toughest lefties in the game when he is on
Over his last 23 IP,
Harrison has given up a total of just 3 earned runs. His last two starts were
shutouts, one of them being a complete game against the Giants, so he is certainly
feeling it at the moment. There are times when Harrison's mechanics get out of
whack and he can get lit up like a christmas tree, but it seems he has made the
correct adjustments of late. He has not given up more than 3 earned runs in his last 3
starts. Over those three games, he owns an elite ERA of of 1.17 and an even better WHIP
of 0.87 while giving up just 15 hits in 23 IP. The Padres lineup is going to be
turned over so quickly by Harrison it's not even funny.
Naturally enough considering the competitors, baseball odds makers currently have the Rangers as prohibitive -183 favorites. The total remains at 7.5.
Its going to be very
hard for the Padres to get runs tonight
San Diego went on a
stretch where they were swinging some hot bats against some very good pitchers, but, in their last 4 games, they are right back to their old ways. They've scored more than 2 runs just once in their last four games and that came against Oakland's
Tyson Ross, who has an ERA of almost 7. Against LHP, SD is hitting just .230 overall, has one of the worst OBP at just .299, and manages just 3.24 runs, which
is absolutely brutal.
With Jason Marquis
feeling good and his numbers regressing to the mean, we just can't back the
Rangers as almost an -180 road favorite, but what we can absolutely do is play
the UNDER the posted total of 8. This SD lineup should be a breeze for Matt
Harrison and it won't be surprisng at all if his shut out streak continues. The
only way this one goes OVER is if the Rangers do it themselves, which is very
unlikely in a huge ball park such as PETCO.
recommend adding Texas SD UNDER 8 to your MLB Picks of the Day
. Our over all
record is 38-36. Good luck everybody!