The Oakland A's will look to Tom Milone to get the job done tonight against Seattle's righty Kevin Millwood. Find out why we have decided to look at the total with our MLB picks in this matchup, as it looks as if the odds makers are a bit off.
Joe Freda’s 2012 MLB Record: 33-33-1 (-0.86 ROI)
The Oakland Athletics began this week’s homestand sweeping the
Boston Red Sox, with the UNDER cashing at 3-0. Bob Melvin’s club continues the stretch with Friday’s opener against the
Seattle Mariners, who head south with a 5-3 mark in this year’s eight meetings
with Oakland.
Oakland has left-hander Tom Milone (8-6, 3.73 ERA) slated to take
the hill, while Seattle counters with righty Kevin Millwood (3-6, 4.00
ERA). Of the top baseball betting sites that we follow, most opened Milone as a
155 favorite, while first listing the ‘total’ at seven.
Milone lit up in Texas
Milone saw a two-win streak end with Saturday’s 7-2 defeat for
Oakland as a 131 road dog against the Texas Rangers. The second-year hurler gave up six runs (five
unearned), allowing two homers as part of six hits over five innings.
Athletics first baseman Chris Carter drove in one of his squad’s
pair of runs with a solo shot, while adding a double as part of a 2-for-4
night. Oakland’s Yoenis Cespedes and
Jonny Gomes were held to a combined 1-for-8, leaving six men on base.
The contest’s nine runs dipped below the ‘total’ of 11, bringing
the UNDER to 7-2 in Milone’s last nine starts. Oakland logged three of the battle’s four errors, while Athletics
relievers Brian Fuentes and Jordan Noberto gave up two hits each over the final
three innings.
Millwood exits early
Millwood faced Oakland last Wednesday, leaving after 2 2/3 innings
due to a groin injury. The 16-year
veteran gave up a leadoff homer to Athletics outfielder Coco Crisp, while
ending up with a no-decision in Seattle’s 2-1 defeat as a plus 100 home choice.
Mariners catcher John Jaso cracked a solo shot in the second
inning for his squad’s sole run, finishing 2-for-3. Jaso’s mates Ichiro Suzuki and Franklin
Gutierrez united to hit 1-for-9 from their lineup’s top two spots, with Suzuki
leaving a team-high four men on base.
The tight affair’s three runs plunged below the ‘total’ of seven,
making the UNDER 6-3 in Millwood’s last nine outings. Mariners reliever Hisashi Iwakuma logged his
staff’s loss, giving up a go-ahead homer to Cespedes as his sole hit allowed in
3 2/3 frames.
Back the UNDER in
Oakland
Friday’s first pitch is scheduled for 10:05 p.m. (ET). Oakland’s weather forecast calls for a clear
60 degree evening, with calm winds.
I am adding the UNDER in this duel to my MLB picks for the night’s
card, looking for the series to start off tight.
Seattle notched 7.5 RPG in April’s two road spots at Oakland, but
look for a different story against Milone, who has held foes to a stingy 0.77
WHIP and .213 OBP in six home starts. Milone’s stretch has included giving up just one homer in 45 2/3 IP,
while allowing no more than two runs in any start.
Millwood’s last two road outings were shaky, but the 37-year-old
has held his own when visiting Oakland in the past. The 2009 and 2010 seasons saw Millwood hold the
Athletics to a combined three earned runs over a pair of starts (13 IP), while
still with the Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles.
Oakland’s lineup has hit a meager .222 against right-handed
pitching at home, with a sparse .308 OBP. Cespedes went 1-for-12 from the cleanup spot in the homestand’s first
three games against Boston, leaving nine men on base.
Seattle’s Ichiro Suzuki has been held to a 1-for-6 career mark
against Milone, while slugger Justin Smoak (11 HRs) is 0-for-5. The Mariners’ best chances at the plate
looked to be with Jesus Montero’s 4-for-6 lifetime stretch, including one homer
- however the Venezuela native is “questionable” in this spot with a
concussion.
When looking at the MLB odds boards it looks as if the game's total has been set a bit low. The
UNDER is 5-1 in Oakland’s last six home dates when facing a right-handed
starter, while cashing at a 7-1 clip in Millwood’s last eight road starts. Look for both lineups to do their share of
struggling in this matchup, leading to UNDER tickets getting the money.
My Pick: Take the UNDER