This is a big series for both Sunshine State teams, and the Tampa Bay Rays have the pitching and hitting advantage in Game 1 vs. the Florida Marlins on Friday.
Tonight we get a battle in the Sunshine State as the Florida Marlins (38-36) head off to face the Tampa Bay Rays (39-35).
James Shields gave up four runs in 6.2 innings earlier this season while pitching against Florida on the road. He received no decision in that start but had a solid game with seven strikeouts and two walks; he had a rough second inning giving up three runs but bounced back strong as the loss was handed to relief pitcher Lance Cormier.
In his lone start at home vs. the Marlins in '07 he pitched seven innings giving up just one earned run and five hits. Shields has been hot in his last five starts posting four quality appearances. He has given up just 11 earned runs in those last five games and has 24 strikeouts and just two walks.
The power-hitting Marlins should get shut down today by Shields who, i his last seven home starts, has given up just one home run. He owns a 3.07 ERA at home and is facing a Marlins team that is hitting just .247 vs. righthanded hurlers on the highway.
Josh Johnson, who has gotten two big wins in a row against American League teams, will have to face a group of Rays bats that are heating up. His numbers on the road aren't as solid as his home stats. He has a 3.82 ERA on the highway vs. a 1.94 ERA at home this season. Five of Johnson's six home runs allowed have come on the road; note he has pitched 25 more innings away from home this year.
In 40 innings on the road he has allowed 37 hits vs. his impeccable 48 hits in just 65 innings at home. This line may look off to some considering his 7-1 record and how solid he has been but we think Johnson is in a rough spot tonight vs. a Tampa Bay team that is 23-13 at home this season.
Tampa Bay bats .280 at home vs. righthanded pitches this season and are heating up with a .303 average in their past 10 games. Shields has a 25-8 record in his last 33 home starts. The Marlins have dropped five of the last six meetings overalland we have to back the Devil Rays to pull of the win tonight.
Free Pick: Rays -143