It is not often that you can catch Johan Santana as an underdog, and given his 2.76 road ERA and his past successes in the Bronx, he oozes value here. Meanwhile, AJ Burnett couldn’t get out of the third inning in his last start. Go Mets.
This afternoon, Johan Santana (8-3 2.39 ERA) takes the mound for the New York Mets vs. AJ Burnett (4-3 4.89 ERA) and the New York Yankees.
We love the value Santana is receiving given the fact he has been flawless in Yankee Stadium in the past. We know it's a new stadium this year but Johan should do just fine today. In his last five visits to the Bronx his team has won four of his five starts vs. New York. In over 33 innings in those five games he has given up just seven earned runs.
Last season with the Mets he faced the Yankees twice and finished 1-1 giving up seven earned runs with 13 strikeouts in 13 innings of work. He is facing a Yankee team who has been struggling vs. southpaws in their last 10 games batting just .183.
Santana has been rock solid on the road with a 2.76 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this year. He won his only game vs. an AL team holding the Red Sox to just 2 earned runs in seven innings of work in Fenway last month. We're catching nice value with the Mets ace against a Yankee team who has dropped four of their last five games.
Just four days ago AJ Burnett pitched 84 pitches in just 2.2 innings vs. the Red Sox. He was yanked after giving up five walks, three earned runs, and five hits. Oddsmakers have Burnett over valued in this spot today. The Yankees are 2-8 in their last 10 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record and the odds are stacked against them today.
The Mets are 8-2 in Santana’s last 10 starts on the highway. We'll back the Mets this afternoon to pick up the win in the subway series.
Free Pick: Mets +106
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