We've seen the negative results from a long layoff like the Phillies have had in recent World Series. Take the Tampa Bay Rays at home in Game 1 against Philadelphia.
The line is around pick because of the perceived pitching advantage the Phillies are supposed to have with Cole Hamels against Scott Kazmir. That's trumped, though, by the Rays playing at home where Kazmir has been strong, all while the Phillies have been idle for seven days.
Philadelphia last played a week ago. The Phillies figure to be rusty and their timing off. We have recent history to back this up. Two years ago, Detroit had six days off before beginning World Series action against St. Louis. The Tigers lost 7-2 in Game 1 and fell to the underdog Cardinals in five games. Last year, Colorado had a record eight days off before its World Series against Boston. The Rockies played terrible and were swept in four games.
Contrast this with the Rays who have momentum and adrenaline that should carry over for this home matchup.
The importance of Tropicana Field can't be underestimated. The Rays have won 75 percent of their past 76 games there. This is a field with a lot of quirks that the Phillies haven't experienced. The dome and synthetic grass are different at Tropicana Field than what the Phillies have experienced in the National League playing at Arizona and Milwaukee, which have retractable roofs. Phillies outfielders may have trouble with the numerous catwalks and scaffolding hanging from the top and the extensive lighting at Tropicana Field.
The southpaw Hamels has been brilliant in the postseason. But the Phillies are 10-7 in his road starts, 2-7 versus teams with winning records. The Rays have proven they can defeat good lefties during the postseason, beating Jon Lester and scoring eight runs and getting 17 hits in 13.2 innings versus White Sox lefties Mark Buehrle and John Danks.
Kazmir has been much better when pitching at Tropicana Field. The Rays went 14-2 in his home starts with 12 of the 16 games coming against teams with winning records. Kazmir was exceptionally sharp in his last start during Game 5 at Fenway Park, shutting out Boston for six innings while allowing just two hits and striking out seven.
Free Pick: Rays -102