Playing in their fourth locale inside of a week has to have the Braves dragging as they start a set in Texas. Ride the Rangers to the pay window tonight against Atlanta.
The marketplace is making a most unusual statement when they make a team with a 10-25 road record a visiting favorite against a quality opponent, and we believe that tonight’s particular setting makes the Braves even more vulnerable. So count us in.
Situations like this one are most rare in the majors; Atlanta is playing in the fourth different city in six days, and third in three. Making the adjustment more difficult is that the Braves had to play Sunday evening at Anaheim, instead of an afternoon start, and that they have also lost an hour in the time zone transition each of the last two days.
That can be even further exacerbated by having to adjust to a ball park that they have precious little experience in (they have not been here since 2005), and while Tim Hudson brings decent form to the table, which is a prime reason why Atlanta is favored, he also brings issues as well.
Hudson, along with Mark Teixeira, has plenty of experience at Arlington, but it has not been good - he has worked to a 2-4/6.23 from this mound over his career. He also faces some left/right bias issues (left-handers have hit 27 points higher against him this season, and all seven home runs have come from hitters batting from that side) against as potent of a group of left-handers as any lineup can produce. And taking it a step further is a temperature that is expected to be in the upper 80’s at first pitch. That is going to make it tough for Hudson to go deep into the evening, and that muddled Atlanta bullpen is no match for this class of offense in this park.
There is also value here because Vicente Padilla’s solid 8-3/3.89 has simply not caused a ripple anywhere. The Rangers are 11-3 in his 14 starts, and the heat is actually something that he is most comfortable with - he has been able to work to a 3.27 from this mound so far, on the heels of a 4-3/3.28 last year. And while the Braves come in tired, the Rangers had yesterday off to bring all bullpen arms fresh for the latter stages. It all adds up to tell us that the wrong team is favored.
Free Pick: Rangers +106