Tim Lincecum and San Francisco Giants over Arizona Dbacks

By: | www.sbrforum.com

Grass of AT&T Park is the host tonight as the Giants and the Dbacks square off. Right handers Ian Kennedy and Tim Lincecum take to the mound with MLB odds makers setting the Giants as -182 favorties.


Tim Lincecum for the San Francisco Giants
 

Current Record: 22-9 +13.32 units

MLB free pick on the San Francisco Giants as they take on the Arizona Diamondbacks set to start at 10:30 PM ET.

The Giants put the National League West on notice completing an impressive sweep of the division leading Colorado Rockies over the past weekend. They did it with impressive pitching and timely hitting mirroring their style of play that carried them to the World Championship last season. Moreover, the sweep was attained without a contribution from ace starter Tim Lincecum, who will be starting this game tonight.

The Giants now trail the Rockies by just 1 1/5 games in the National League West. The Giants have won three straight and six of the past 10 games while the Rockies have struggled winning just three games in the past 10 games.

Rankings and Stats

The season has progressed past the first 30 games and the team statistics now have greater validity and meaning. Arizona has a decent offense, ranking seventh in offensive scoring at 4.67 runs per game. The Giants however have struggled offensively and rank 27th averaging 3.53 runs per game. Arizona has had some timely hitting. They rank just 16th in hits per game averaging 8.39 hits. The Giants are not getting those key hits yet and rank 23rd averaging 7.94 hits per game. Moreover, Arizona ranks sixth in total bases per game at 14.30 bases. By comparison the Giants rank 24th averaging 12.29 total bases per game. Arizona does have the better offense, but this is the era of the pitcher and this where the Giants have vast advantage over the Dbacks.

The Pitching Staffs

The Giants rank sixth best sporting a 3.26 earned run average and have posted a 1.33 ERA spanning the past three games. By comparison Arizona ranks 26th posting a 4.45 ERA for the season. The Giants have the sixth best bullpen posting a 2.76 ERA and rank second best allowing a .202 opponent batting average. In stark contrast the Diamondbacks rank 16th posting a 3.26 ERA and rank 18th, allowing a .242 opponent batting average. Although the starters are known for extended starts it will be the Giants bullpen that will secure the win tonight.

Simulator Projections and Supporting System

My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that the Giants will win tonight. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 38-7 making 26.6 units per one unit wagered for 84.4% winners since 1997. Play on all favorites with a money line of -150 or more on the MLB odds board and is a struggling NL hitting team batting .255 or less and now facing a team with a very good bullpen sporting an ERA of 3.33 less and with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits per start. Lincecum needs no introduction and I strongly believe he will dominate the Diamondbacks lineup for a minimum of seven innings.

Take the San Francisco Giants.


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