With an offense that averages nearly an entire run more per game than their opponent look for Ricky Romero and the Blue Jays to outduel King Felix in Seattle.
When "King" Felix Hernandez takes the mound for the Seattle Mariners, they deserve to be the favorite. The Mariners have won the game in Hernandez’s last eight trips to the mound and 10 of his last 11. With the exception of a four game losing streak in early may, Hernandez has been near perfect all season.
That said, I’m of the school of thought that all streaks must come to an end. Rookie hurler Ricky Romero has been no slouch himself this season. With a personal record of 8-4 and an ERA of 3.44, Romero has kept games close fairly often this season. The Blue Jays have won in seven of Romero’s last 10 trips to the mound.
With the over/under set at a low 7.5, it appears that bookies are expecting the same thing that I am expecting in tonight’s game; a low-scoring pitcher’s dual. At this stage in their careers, Felix Hernandez is very clearly the better pitcher between the two. But taking Toronto’s bats into consideration, I’m not sure he should be as big of a favorite as he is tonight.
The Blue Jays have the league’s rank 10th in league in runs scored, scoring 478 runs in 99 games, good for 4.82 runs per game. The Mariners have scored almost 100 less runs on the season, ranking 28th out of 30 teams in the league with 380 runs. Their 380 runs in 98 games puts them at about 3.88 runs per game, averaging almost a full run less scored per game than the Jays.
Once again, considering the discrepancy in talent between Romero and King Felix, these offensive stats get washed out. But it can’t be completely ignored that in a pitcher’s dual one team has a substantially better offense than the other, even if one pitcher is also substantially better than his opponent.
The line has been skewed due to the public tailing Felix Hernandez regardless of the price. 93% of runline bettors are on Seattle on and 82% of moneyline bettors are on Seattle as well. At these prices, this seems like a good spot to me to fade the public and take Romero and the Blue Jays.
The Pick: Toronto ML +168 and Toronto +1.5 -135