Yankees vs. Braves: MLB Picks

The Yankees sputtered along for a while this season, but now they look unbeatable. After sweeping a good Nationals team over the weekend, the Yanks have won nine in a row to take over the AL East division lead. So, do we include them in our MLB picks of the day?

Fans of weekday afternoon baseball get a good one today as Atlanta and New York play a rubber match at Yankee Stadium (1 pm Eastern).

Atlanta broke New York's 10-game winning streak Tuesday night with a 4-3 victory. Tim Hudson gave up three runs in the first four innings, but the Braves bullpen held the Yankees scoreless the last four innings. Jason Heyward knocked in the winning run with a base-hit in the top of the sixth.

It was the first win in five games this season for Atlanta against the streaking Yankees.

The Braves cashed in as +125 dogs Tuesday, and the game settled 'under' its total of nine.

The win also broke a three-game losing streak for Atlanta, which at 36-32 now trails Washington by 3.5 games in the NL East.

New York, meanwhile, at 41-26, leads the AL East by 2.5 games over Baltimore. 

Wednesday's Pitching Matchup

Atlanta will go with Tommy Hanson (7-4, 3.32) for Wednesday's series finale against Phil Hughes (7-5, 4.50) for the Yanks.

Hanson has seven quality starts in 14 tries this year, and the Braves are 9-5 when he's started. Last Friday Hanson held the Orioles to two unearned runs in 5 1/3 innings, which was fortunate considering he also walked six. Over his last three starts he's been pretty good, allowing four earned runs on 15 hits through 20 1/3 innings. Atlanta won those three games.

For the season Hanson has given up 77 hits in 81 innings, but the 33 walks bring his WHIP up to 1.35.

Hughes is only five-for-13 on quality starts this year, but three of those have come in his last three outings. Most recently he held the Nationals to one run in six innings, striking out nine, and over his last three starts he's allowed just four ER on 16 hits in 21 1/3 innings. Not surprisingly, the Yanks won all three of those games.

So after a rough start to this year, which saw his ERA sitting at 5.64 going into June, maybe Hughes has figured something out. 

A quick perusal of some of Wednesday's MLB betting boards shows us the Yankees can be gotten at -135 at many places, while 5Dimes is offering the Braves at +130. 

On the best of the run-line prices New York is getting +150 at Bookmaker giving the run and a half. 

Finally, most outlets are lining Wednesday's game with an 'over/under' of nine. 

Braves vs. Yankees Free MLB Pick 

New York took the opener of  this series Monday night 6-2 behind a complete game from C.C. Sabathia and three RBI from Derek Jeter. The Yanks won as -210 favorites on Monday's MLB betting board, and the game stayed UNDER its total of 8.5. 

The Pinstripes also covered vs. the run line Monday at a price of +100. 

So New York, winners of 10 games in a row, leads the AL East at 41-25, two and a half games clear now of second-place Baltimore. 

Atlanta, meanwhile, losers of three in a row, sits in third place in the NL East at 35-32, four and a half games back of division-leading Washington. 

Going back a little further, the Braves have lost seven of their last eight games, thanks mainly to a sleepy set of bats that have produced just 16 runs over that span. 

Tim Hudson (4-3, 3.90) will try to slow Atlanta's skid Tuesday when he goes against former National Leaguer Hiroki Kuroda (6-6, 3.43). 

Hudson is only four-for-nine on quality starts this season, but the Braves have managed to go 6-3 in games he's started. Most recently Hudson threw a good game vs. the Yankees last Wednesday, allowing three earned run in six innings, walking none and striking out eight, although Atlanta lost that game 3-2. Just before that he shut-out Miami on five hits. For the year Hudson has allowed 55 hits in 60 innings, and walked just 15. 

On the other side of this arms battle Kuroda is eight-for-13 on quality starts this year, and the Yanks are 7-6 when he's started. Kuroda has been very good lately, with four QS in a row, and he beat Hudson in that game last week by holding the Braves to two ER in six innings. Over those last four starts Kuroda has allowed just four runs on 21 hits in 28 innings. 

As of Tuesday morning the Yankees are favored by around -145 at most baseball betting shops, with the OVER/UNDER posted at 8.5. New York can also be gotten at upwards of +145 on the run line at some books. 

About 60 percent of the early action on the side in this game was coming in on the Yankees, while play on the totals leaned about 55-45 toward the OVER.

As touched on above, these teams just met last week, when the Yanks stormed into Atlanta and swept three games from the Braves. 

Braves vs. Yankees Free Pick 

On one side we see New York on a roll; on the other side we see Atlanta having big trouble scoring runs. So, we'll back Kuroda and the Yankees Tuesday at the reasonable price.

The Yanks beat the Nationals by scores of 7-2, 5-3 and 4-1, so Pinstripes pitching allowed a total of six runs over the weekend. 

And Rafael Soriano pitched a perfect ninth inning for the save Sunday, his 13^th in 14 save opportunities since taking over at closer. 

So the Yankees, now 15 games over .500 at 40-25 and winners of 19 of their last 23 games, lead the AL East by a game and a half over second-place Baltimore. 

Atlanta, meanwhile, just dropped two of three games at home to Baltimore, and has lost six of its last seven. Braves bats have been awfully quiet lately; they got one-hit by the Orioles' Jason Hammel on Saturday and shut-out on seven hits Sunday. Going back just a bit further Atlanta has scored 14 runs total over its last seven games. 

So the Braves, at 35-31, sit in second place in the NL East, four games back of division-leading Washington. 

CC Sabathia (8-3, 3.70) will start this series opener for New York Monday against Mike Minor (3-4, 6.01) for Atlanta. 

As of early Monday we see that 5Dimes online sportsbooks is listing the Yankees as -195 favorites for Monday night's game (7:05 pm Eastern, ESPN), while Matchbook is offering the Braves at +190. 

5Dimes is also offering New York at +103 giving the run and a half on its baseball betting run line 

Most baseball betting outlets are also pegging Monday's game with an OVER/UNDER of nine. 

Minor is just three-for-12 on quality starts this year, although somehow Atlanta is 6-6 in his starts. But he's been better lately. Last Tuesday Minor held the Yankees scoreless into the eighth inning before the Braves bullpen blew the game, and before that he allowed one run in five innings vs. Miami. 

Still, on the season, Minor has given up 73 hits and 14 homers in 70 innings and walked 27. 

On the other side of this pitching matchup, Sabathia is eight-for-13 on quality starts this year, and New York is 9-4 when he's started. But his latest outing, which came last Tuesday in Atlanta, Sabby allowed four earned runs on 10 hits in seven innings, although he got the win when the Yanks rallied late. And over his last three starts he's given up nine ER on 25 hits in 21 innings. So he hasn't exactly been untouchable. 

For the season Sabathia has allowed 91 hits in 92 innings and struck out 92. 

In early betting on Monday's game, New York has been the choice of about 65 percent of the action on the side, while about 59 percent of play on the total has come in on the OVER.

These two teams just meet last weekend, when the Yankees rolled into Atlanta and swept three games from the Braves by scores of 3-0, 6-4 and 3-2. 

Sabathia and Minor squared off in the middle game of that series last Tuesday, and Minor actually outpitched Sabby, holding the Yanks scoreless while the Braves scored four runs on 10 hits off CC. But, in the top of the eighth Alex Rodriguez hit a line-drive grand slam to tie the score at 4-4, and two batters later Nick Swisher hit a two-run shot to give the Yanks a 6-4 lead, which they maintained for the victory. 

For whatever reason Atlanta has actually been a better team on the road this season, 20-14, than at home, where they're 15-17. 

On the injury front Braves 1B Freddie Freeman has missed recent action with a sore hand, and his status for this series is uncertain. Over in the other dugout Swisher missed Sunday's game with a sore quad, and he's questionable for Monday. 

New York is rolling, while Atlanta is having problems scoring. Minor should have beaten Sabathia in that matchup last week, but we expect the opposite today. Also, that price on Sabby and the Yanks is a little steep, so we'll take a chance and play the home team on the run line.