Yankees vs. Tigers: MLB Picks

Nervous might be the best description of the three American League division leaders. The dog days of August are upon us, and a couple of squads sitting atop divisions are stuck in neutral while a third continues to feel the heat of its closest challenger.

Playing a key role in the anxiety is a series in progress in Detroit, where the Tigers are entertaining the New York Yankees for four games. The second contest is the subject of this morning's preview, my goal being to provide a winning pick when Phil Hughes leads the pinstripe posse up against Rick Porcello and the Motown Cats.

Game 2 opened as a pick on the MLB odds front and remains close to level on the morning lines. A few shops monitored by SBRodds.com are pricing the Yankees as slight favorites, but we'll call it -105 on both squads for a consensus. 

The total started at 9.5 and remains on that number with the high/low evenly split. 

Detroit took Monday's opener by a 7-2 count, and on the surface the final result wasn't all that unexpected.  After all, the Tigers were expected to win as -180 chalk behind their big ace Justin Verlander, who enjoyed a dominating performance that was essentially marred only by his own fielding gaffe that accounted for both Yankees runs. 

There is no panic in New York, not with the Yanks still sharing the best record in the Junior Circuit with the Texas Rangers. However, both of those teams have to be a little worried about their rotations, specifically one member of said rotations. For Texas, a string of poor performances by high-priced Japanese import Yu Darvish is weighing heavy on the minds of manager Ron Washington and pitching coach Mike Maddux. Their counterparts in New York, Joe Girardi and Larry Rothschild, have the same head-scratching going on with regards to Ivan Nova. 

Nova was nothing short of a cash machine for bettors from last season into late June this year. But after guiding the Yankees to 12 wins in his first 14 starts of 2012, New York is 2-6 over his last eight assignments. It would be different if he was still pitching well, but he isn't with his ERA up above 8.00 in five outings since the all-star break. 

Hughes is certainly doing his part to help pick up the slack during Nova's slump. The right-hander has been running in the black for better than two months now with the Yankees 8-3 (+5.1 units) since June 3 when he tossed a complete game to beat Verlander on the Comerica Park diamond as a +160 dog.  He really just had one hiccup during the stretch at Atlanta, and the road overall has been a bit of a problem with New York in the red about $3.00. 

Meanwhile, Detroit has rebounded from a rough road trip recently and has become an absolute force at home.  Monday's triumph was the fifth straight for the Tigers, and their ninth consecutive win at Comerica Park as they continue to keep pressure on the Chicago White Sox for occupancy of the AL Central penthouse. 

Porcello has also been turning a profit over basically the same time span as Hughes, with the Tigers winning nine of his last 12 starts (+6.3). Likewise, he had a solid showing against the Yanks during that early June series. 

He's been a bit of an enigma while cashing baseball betting slips, however, getting hit pretty hard in a few games the past couple of months only to be bailed out by his lineup and bullpen. Porcello has an ERA up over five-&-a-half his since the end of June, yet the Tigers are 4-1 in his five assignments. 

Fittingly for a game lined as a pick, the Tigers and Yankees enter Tuesday's tilt having split their previous 22 regular season encounters. The totals are also level in the four games played so far this year in Detroit.