Yankees vs. White Sox: MLB Picks

The Yankees lead the AL East by a fairly comfortable margin, but it's not over yet. The White Sox own a short lead in the AL Central, but not everybody thinks they'll be able to hang on. The division leaders clash when the Sox host the Yanks for three games starting Monday night.

Chicago has taken the first two games of this series by scores of 9-6 and, Tuesday night, 7-3, getting a grand slam from one of the Yankees' old friends from Boston, Kevin Youkilis. So the Sox will be going for a sweep Wednesday night (8:10 pm Eastern, ESPN2), while the Yanks will be trying to avoid one. 

New York has grabbed early leads in both games in this series, only to have the White Sox come from behind both games. 

And both games in this series so far have played 'over' on the totals. 

Wednesday's Pitching Matchup 

Lefty Chris Sale (14-4, 2.72) goes for Chicago Wednesday night, while Phil Hughes (12-10, 4.23) will  throw for New York. 

Sale, in a breakout season, is 13-for-21 on quality starts this year, and the White Sox are 14-7 in his starts. His last time out he gave up four runs and nine hits in 6 2/3 innings vs. the Royals, and over his last three starts he's allowed eight earned runs and 23 hits in 21 1/3 innings. So he hasn't exactly been lights-out as of late. 

But for the season Sale has allowed just 119 hits in 145 innings, walked 35 and struck out 137. 

This will be Sale's first start against the Yankees this season.

Hughes is 12-for-24 on quality starts this year, with New York going 13-11 in his starts. His last time out Hughes gave up four unearned runs on four hits through seven innings vs. the Red Sox, but over his two previous starts he'd given up 11 ER on 17 hits in just 8 1/3 innings. 

For the season Hughes has allowed more hits, 150, than innings pitched, 143, and been tagged for 28 homers. 

But Hughes' only start this year against the White Sox was one of his better efforts of the season. He held Chicago to two runs on six hits through eight innings, walked one and whiffed eight. 

Wednesday's Betting Odds and Trends 

As of Wednesday AM most online sportsbooks were offering the White Sox at around -135 for Wednesday night's game, with an 'over/under' of 8.5. 

Early betting action on this game has seen about a 55/45 split on the side come down on the Yankees, and a 60/40 split on the total come in on the 'over.'

Free MLB Pick

The Yanks have cost us in both games in this series so far, so we're not sure whether to ride them all the way, or jump ship. In this case, we're going to jump ship, and take Sale and the Sox.

Chicago won Monday's series opener 9-6, erasing an early 3-0 deficit with a five-run fifth inning and hitting four homers. 

The White Sox won Monday as +105 home dogs on the MLB betting line, and the game cruised 'over' its total of nine. 

With the victory the White Sox bumped their lead in the AL Central to two games over the second-place Tigers. 

With the loss, and a Tampa Bay victory Monday, New York's lead in the AL East is now down to four games. 

Tuesday's Pitching Matchup 

Francisco Liriano (4-10, 5.22) will make his third start for Chicago Tuesday against Ivan Nova (11-6, 4.76) for New York.

Liriano is just nine-for-21 on quality starts this season, and two for his last five. Most recently the former Twin held the Jays to two runs through 6 1/3 innings, although just before that, in his first start for the Sox, he got plugged for six runs in less than four innings against the Rays.

In his one start this year against the Yankees Liriano got bombed for five runs on seven hits in just 2 1/3 innings back in April.

On the other side of this matchup, Ivan Nova is 11-for-24 on quality starts this season, but only one for his last five. His last time out he gave up four runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Rangers, and over his last five starts he's allowed 24 ER in 28 1/3 innings.

However, in his one start this year against the White Sox Nova held them to one run and six hits through 7 1/3 innings back in June.

Tuesday's Betting Odds and Trends 

As of Tuesday morning the best MLB odds we could find on Chicago was the -106 being offered at Matchbook, while New York could be gotten at +105 at a couple of different online sportsbooks.

Also, most books are listing the total on Tuesday's game at nine.

Early public action on this game has seen a 70/30 split toward the Yankees, and a 60/40 split on the total toward the 'over.'

Injury Update 

After missing the weekend series with Boston because of a sore wrist New York 1B Mark Teixeira went two-for-four with a couple RBI Monday night. 

Free MLB Pick

We whiffed on the Yankees Monday night, but in an effort to get our money back we'll stick with New York for Tuesday's pick.

Yanks/Sox series set-up 

New York just took two of three games from Boston over the weekend, winning Sunday night's rubber match 4-1 behind another great start from a hot Hiroki Kuroda. The Yanks are now 12-6 this month. 

Chicago, meanwhile, just hit a road bump, getting swept three games in Kansas City over the weekend. So, the White Sox are now 9-8 this month. 

The Yanks enter this series up five games on Tampa in the AL East, and they lead Texas by a game and a half in the race for the best record in the American League. 

The Sox come into this series a game and a half up on Detroit in the AL Central. Chicago would be the three seed in the American League if the playoffs started today. 

Monday's pitching matchup

Chicago sends Gavin Floyd (9-9, 4.43) to the mound Monday night vs. Freddy Garcia (7-5, 4.68) for New York. 

Floyd is 10-for-22 on quality starts this season but, by our tough standards, 0 for his last three. His last time out he gave up three earned runs on eight hits in six innings vs. Toronto, and just before that he allowed three ER on seven hits in six innings vs. Oakland. 

Over his last three starts, Floyd has given up 11 ER and 23 hits in 18 1/3 innings. 

In his one start this year vs. the Yankees, Floyd got clipped for four runs and eight hits, including a couple of homers, in five-plus innings of a 4-2 Sox loss back on July 1. 

Garcia, by our standards, is only four-for-13 on quality starts this year, but two for his last two. Most recently, he held the Rangers to two runs and four hits in 6 2/3 innings, and just before that he held the Jays to two runs in six innings. 

The Yanks are 7-6 in Garcia's starts this year, and have won his last three outings in a row. 

This will be Garcia's first start vs. the White Sox since 2008. 

Monday's betting odds and trends 

As of Monday morning, the best MLB odds we could find on the Yankees was the -108 being offered at Matchbook, while the Sox could be gotten at +106 at Pinnacle. 

New York was also being offered at upwards of +140 on the run line at a couple of different online sportsbooks. 

And most baseball betting outlets were lining the total on Monday's game at 9.5. 

Finally, Bovada is listing Chicago as a -120 favorite to win this series, with the Yanks lined at -110. 

These two teams have gone a combined 105-130 on the OVERS/UNDERS so far this season. Also, the totals are a combined 11-23 in games started by Floyd and Garcia. 

Early betting on Monday's game has seen a 60/40 split come down on New York, while action on the total has split just about down the middle. 

The season series 

These teams have only met once before this year, back in late June in the Bronx, when the teams split four games. Three of those games stayed 'under' on the totals. 

Injury notes 

New York is already playing without Alex Rodriguez, who's on the DL with a broken bone in his hand. Now they've played their last three games without 1B Mark Teixeira, who's dealing with a sore wrist. His status for Monday's game is uncertain. 

Free MLB pick 

This game looks darn near like a toss-up to us, but Garcia has had better success recently, so we'll go with the Yankees as short favorites.