This
will mark the second edition of the Weekend Baseball Betting Ticket and if you
are new to the column please take a few moments and review the Contrarian Betting Method. Essentially we
are playing against public sentiment when it reaches extreme levels
of irrational exuberance.
Just today in the financial
markets, we have the third largest initial public offering taking place with
Facebook trading at roughly 40.50 a share, giving it a market capitalization
over $100 billion. In the late 90’s leading up to the NASDAQ bubble pop and
price peaks, there were hundreds of companies with no earnings that had market
worth exceeding some of the most prestigious and credit worthy companies in the
world. Have we learned from the mistakes of that period of market euphoria or
is this another repeat of history? Only time will tell, but I can tell you there are
direct connections to the sports ‘markets’ and the prices that people pay to
get down on games.
Currently, the majority of public
investors believe that Facebook is a certain to make them money, and there is
the same mentality regarding favorites in the money line sports of MLB and the
NHL. What I have found interesting is that, in both the marketplace and sports
wagering, when public sentiment exceeds 75%, the opposite expectation has a high
probability of occurring. I am not sure why this occurs, but it does and it
happens enough that you can benefit by playing the ugly dogs that no one wants
and not only make profits, but look like a fanatical genius to your friends.
In this week’s edition, I am going
to focus on the Baltimore Orioles and specifically starting pitchers Tommy
Hunter and Wei-Yin Chen. There's a double-edged sword working in our favor by
playing against them. First, the Orioles have out performed all preseason
expectations and lead the American League East with one of the best records in
baseball. In my opinion, they have reached peak performance and that a period
of play will ensue that is significantly below this peak. Moreover, Tommy
Hunter ranks seventh in money earned and Chen third for the season. Both of them
have reached unsustainable performance levels, but the lines available will not
reflect that fact.
Chen will be matched up against
Stephen Strasburg Sunday, and that line will be high, but undervalued. First, I
abhor the word value when it pertains to the sports market place; I think it is an invalid, mostly misunderstood term. In this matchup, where I
believe you will see Strasburg and the Nationals lined as a -180 favorites, the
actual line without public sentiment and emotion would be closer to Washington
favored by -250.
The reason this occurs is simple: the public knows Baltimore is in first place and one of their best pitchers is
on the hill. Washington is playing well, but beginning to show cracks in the
armor and don’t have Jayson Werth in the lineup. Moreover, Strasburg was
roughed up by the Padres, the most offensively challenged team in MLB.
These are facts, however, that have minimal impact on how the result of this
game will be determined. What is beneficial for us, is that we are on a solid
team that is losing some of its bandwagon members and with a starting pitcher
who was hammered in his last start. The opponent we are playing against has an
overflowing bandwagon and a starter that some would argue is an ace. There is
the advantage.
Tommy Hunter goes Monday, so we
will make that the second bet of the weekend, despite its taking place on Monday.
All the reasons mentioned above apply to this game as well, making it a valid play for
your consideration.
My third play for this
weekend tip sheet will be to play against Bud Norris and the Houston Astros. He
also pitches Monday, a great opportunity to fade when he faces the
highly disrespected Chicago Cubs and Matt Garza.
For a series play that qualifies
under the various components of the Contrarian method, I recommend playing
against the Dodgers when the Cardinals come to town for a three game set
starting Friday night. The first game sees the Cardinals Lynn facing the 5-0
Ted Lilly with the Cardinals installed as -124 favorites. In Game 2, I expect
the Dodgers to be significant favorites with Clayton Kershaw on the hill facing
the Cardinals Westbrook. The final Sunday sees the Cardinals Adam Wainwright
going up against the Dodgers Volquez. I see the Cardinals winning this series
and possibly getting a sweep.
Plays Recap
Friday; Play on the Cardinals
-124 over the Dodgers for a 5* graded play
Saturday: Play on Cardinals
against the Dodgers and Kershaw
Sunday: Play on the Cardinals
with Wainwright over the Dodgers
Sunday: Play on Washington
with Strasburg over the Orioles and Chen
Monday: Play on Washington
over the Orioles and Hunter
Monday: Play on the Cubs with Garza over the
Astros and Bud Norris