It was supposed to be the Tigers growling once again in the AL Central last year after a busy offseason. But in the end, the very end, it was Paul Konerko and the power-hitting White Sox that came out on top.
There was a lot of weird stuff that went down in baseball in 2008. Tampa rising in the AL East, the Phillies – The losingest franchise in MLB history – winning the World Series, Manny, and who can forget the Astros playing a home game in Milwaukee against the neighboring Cubs? Lord knows I never will.
But for my money – And I mean that literally – the strangest stuff went on in the AL Central. And while I know my simulation program isn’t perfect, the peculiarities in the AL Central do show up in the list below showing each division and how many total wins the sims were off for the groups. Here’s a list of the divisions and how far off I was for total wins in the group:
DIV, Total Wins Off
AL East -29.6
NL Central -30.2
NL East -43.2
AL West -45.0
NL West -45.0
AL Central -48.6
As you can see the AL Central was the division that fooled the sims most, and most of that fooling was performed by the Detroit Tigers. Granted, the goal is to have zero variance from simulated runs to actual Wins. But perfection, with the exception of a few posters at SBR, is very difficult to achieve with any predictions. Just ask your local weatherman.
Of that nearly 49-win difference between projected and actual for the AL Central, more than a third of it, 17 games, was from the Tigers’ ledger alone. Just two seasons removed from the AL flag in Jim Leyland’s first season on the dugout’s top step, Detroit’s nosedive to the depths of the division left the group up for grabs. In fact, it took an extra game on the slate to eventually decide the playoff rep from the division.
AL CENTRAL
(Team, Avg Sim Wins / Actual Wins)
Chicago (81.0 / 88.0)
In some ways it was the division that nobody seemed to want to win in 2008. The White Sox, backed by the AL’s most powerful lineup and a trio of solid starters, overcame a bit of a slow start that saw them sitting 15-18 in early May, though that mark left them just 2½ out of first. An 8-game win streak shortly after that, which included a road sweep of the Giants and a sweep at home of the Indians, helped get Ozzie Guillen’s lad back on course. After sweeping a rain-delayed doubleheader from the Tigers on Sep 14, Chicago stood 83.65 and held a slim 1½-game lead over the Twins. And that‘s when the bottom appeared to fall out for the Pale Hose.
The ChiSox proceeded to drop nine of their next 12 games, a stretch that saw them swept three-straight in Minnesota, and that seemed to be that. But that trio of starting hurlers – left-handers Mark Buehrle and John Danks plus righty Gavin Floyd – then lifted the team on their shoulders for the rally. Buehrle pitched Chicago past Cleveland on the season’s final Sunday, Floyd followed with a strong outing in a makeup against Detroit on Monday, then Danks combined with reliever Bobby Jenks on a 2-hit, 1-0 blanking in the 1-game playoff vs. the Twins in Game #163 for the two teams to give Chicago the division.
Of course, the White Sox then ran into Cinderella and were dispatched in four games of the AL Division Series by the Rays. The team will return virtually the same in 2009 as rosters hold now. Assuming Carlos Quentin’s wrist is healed, Alexei Ramirez will grow following an outstanding rookie season, and the bullpen can turn things around, Guillen’s Sluggers should be in the thick of the race once again.
Minnesota (77.6 / 88.0)
After losing Johan Santana to the Mets in the Feb 2008 trade, I was one of many who simply wrote the Twins off for 2008. The Tigers were supposed to be very tough, with the Indians and the White Sox possessing much deeper rosters. But baseball, thankfully, isn’t played on paper, and whether it’s been Tom Kelly or Ron Gardenhire at the helm, the team simply refuses to buy into the notion they aren’t supposed to compete against the high-dollar clubs.
Like Chicago, Minnesota got off to a rather mediocre start but hung close in the division through May. A 5-game losing skid in early June, including being swept at the White Sox, looked like it would be the defining moment of the season. But Minnesota then caught fire after the losing streak, winning 19 of their next 23 games that included a 10-game win streak from Jun 17-27 when they knotted Chicago at the top of the division with identical 44-36 records through 80 games.
The Twins ranked third in the AL in scoring last year with 829 runs despite ranking dead last in the league in homers (111). They also missed 15-18 starts from southpaw Francisco Liriano who could’ve made a big difference in the team coming up a game short of the postseason. With two exciting young players in Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young, plus veterans Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, the offense and defense should be fine. Minnesota was 26-25 in 1-run games, something that could improve with a little extra help for Joe Nathan out in the bullpen.
Cleveland (88.0 / 81.0)
Let’s see, it’s an odd-numbered year, so the Tribe must be about to bust out a can of kick-butt in the AL Central this year. Starting in 2004 when they won 80 games, Cleveland has recorded 93- and 96-win seasons in 2005 and 2007 while falling off to 78- and 81-win marks in 2006 and 2008. And if not for a helluva’ second half last year, they’d have never reached the break-even 81-81 record.
After blowing a 6-1 lead in Detroit for an 8-6 loss on July 9, the Indians were 16 below .500 at 37-53 and sat dead last in the division, 15½ games out. Just a week before, Cleveland had shipped C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers and with pitching a real problem for the club, the Indians looked to be fodder for the AL the rest of the season. But thanks to Cliff Lee’s Cy Young season (22-3, 2.54) and an offense paced by Grady Sizemore (33 HR, 38 SB), Cleveland finished the season on a 44-28 run.
They are hoping for a healthy Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner returning to the lineup this season, should get a full season out of Shin-Soo Choo, and added the versatile Mark DeRosa in the offseason. Kerry Wood was also brought in to close games out and, assuming he can stay healthy, he helps what was a troubled bullpen in ’08 while a return to form for Fausto Carmona in the rotation is expected.
Kansas City (67.2 / 75.0)
Maybe things are starting to turn around in KC after the Royals avoided the division cellar for the first time since 2003. It sure didn’t look as if they would achieve that when they went on a 6-21 run from mid-May to mid-June to sit 26-42 after play on lucky Friday, June 13. Thanks in part to a stingy bullpen anchored by Joakim Soria (1.60, 42 Sv), the club then won 49 of their final 94 games under first year manager Trey Hillman.
Generally a 75-win season isn’t much to crow about. But considering the disarray this club has been in, and the pitching staff he had to work with, I consider the job Hillman did pretty remarkable. The team has now locked up Zach Greinke with a long-term deal and has young Luke Hochevar in the wings to add to the starting rotation. If they can get a return to form from Brian Bannister, and if the bullpen can repeat its performance, then all that’s left to come through and possibly boost the team to the 80-win mark is the offense.
Speaking of the offense, how many 1B-DH types do the Royals think they need? After adding Mike Jacobs in a trade with Florida this winter, there’s a logjam there that needs to be addressed with the likes of Ryan Shealy, Billy Butler, Ross load and Mark Teahen.
Detroit (91.0 / 74.0)
I don’t feel too bad about missing the mark big time on the Rays last season. I am, however, embarrassed by my projections for the Tigers. Yeah, sure, they had their share of injuries to overcome, especially out in the pen, and clubhouse chemistry, while an intangible, was tested with so many new faces coming in and a few going out.
Detroit just never got it in gear last year, dropping their first seven games out of the box. The starting rotation was P-U stinky with the exception of rookie Armando Galarraga. Gary Sheffield seemed more interested in reminding everyone he was a black man instead of providing offense as a leader on the club. And Kenny Rogers had one of his worst seasons ever as he tried to come back following an abbreviated 2007 season due to surgery for a blood clot in his left shoulder.
Even with all that went wrong, Detroit was still in position to make a second half run when they sat 47-47 at the All-Star break on July 13. They even came out of the break looking strong and winning five of seven. But it was not to be as they dropped 14 of their final 18 contests, and never even put up a fight in the makeup game with the White Sox that helped Chicago to the eventual division title. They have addressed some of the pitching woes by bringing in starter Edwin Jackson and reliever Brandon Lyon. But this team will only go as far as Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson want to take them in ’09.
AL EAST ... NL EAST