Jair Jurrjens is one of the young stars the Atlanta Braves need to come through in 2010. The Braves are also counting on a lot of veterans to put it together just one more time.
David Schoenfield of ESPN.com has a new piece up calling for a somewhat radical realignment in the majors. Though I think Schoenfield's heart is in the right place on this issue, I'm not sure his head is.
Baseball missed the boat – What's new? – back in 1998 when Arizona and Tampa Bay joined MLB to bring the big leagues up to 30 teams. Instead of splitting the 30 down the middle and putting 15 teams in the AL and 15 in the NL, the game opted for a 16/14 NL/AL split that contributes to the scheduling muck and mire I discussed last week.
There were two primary reasons MLB did it this way. Jerry Colangelo, the big cheese with the new Diamondbacks in '98, was a big crybaby about wanting his new team in the NL. And he got his way, with Tampa Bay going into the AL East, Detroit shifting to the AL Central and the Milwaukee Brewers changing from the AL Central to the NL Central, forming that six team division and keeping the AL West a four-team group.
The other reason was a 15/15 divide between the two leagues would force at least one interleague series going on at all times.
The team that really got screwed on the deal was the Texas Rangers who have been playing a geographically unfair game since the six-division format started in the ill-fated 1994 season.
Rangers road trips for division games are always two time zones from their home base in Arlington. They are the only team that has no division foes in their own time zone. In addition to the extra travel expenses, there is lost local media revenue. When the Phillies and Mets get together, their games are always good for prime time TV/radio going back to the visiting team's fans. Texas fans back home in the Denton-Forth Worth area don't have that luxury when the Rangers play at Anaheim, Oakland or Seattle.
Moving a team to the AL West is going to cause a lot of yelling and screaming, no doubt. The two most logical choices to make the move are the Astros and the Royals. And if it's the Royals, it means moving the Brewers back to the AL Central. Again, I'm thinking logically here, so that means it will never happen in the major leagues.
As an Astros fan I really don't want to see Houston be the team to go, but that franchise really makes the most sense. Offer them $15 million up front, and $2 million extra each of the first three years to be applied directly to payroll to help offset the switch to a team that needs to draft and build with the DH in mind.
The schedule would then be very easy for each team in what would be six, five-team divisions:
- Play each of the other four teams in your own division 20 times (10 home, 10 away) for a total of 80 games.
- Play the other 10 teams in your league six times each (three home, three away). Plus one extra home-&-away (three games each) against an intraleague squad on a rotating basis to add six more games (66 total games vs. non-division league rivals).
- Play four, four-game interleague series each year for a total of 16 games.
All of that adds up to 162 games. Problem solved. Now let's move on to talking about the Braves, Tigers and Orioles.
Atlanta Braves 18/1
2009 record/finish: 86-76, 3rd in NL East
Departing: 1B Casey Kotchman, 2B Kelly Johnson, RHP Javier Vazquez, OF Garret Anderson, LHP Mike Gonzalez, RHP Rafael Soriano
Arriving: 1B Troy Glaus, OF Melky Cabrera, LHP Billy Wagner, UTL Eric Hinske, RHP Takashi Saito
2010 outlook: I like this team a lot. And by that I mean I hate this team with a passion but like them as a playoff contender. That is as long as they hold on to Eric Hinske who has somehow found a way to play in three straight World Series.
There are obvious reasons why this team gets into the postseason and goes a long way and there are obvious reasons why they won't. Let's begin with the latter. The Atlanta Braves are very dependent upon the health of some veterans who have been unhealthy in the past: Chipper Jones, Tim Hudson, Glaus, Saito and Wagner. All four could be out by May for all I know. The bullpen is very dependent on Saito and Wagner especially.
Winning will mean that those guys for the most part stay healthy, and some of the youngsters such as Jair Jurrjens, Nate McLouth and Tommy Hanson come into their own.
Trivia time: Who's the only other player to play in three straight World Series for three different teams?
Free MLB Pick: 89 wins, second in NL East
Detroit Tigers 27/1
2009 record/finish: 86-77, 2nd in AL Central
Departing: INF Placido Polanco, OF Curtis Granderson, RHP Edwin Jackson, RHP Brandon Lyon, RHP Fernando Rodney
Arriving: OF Austin Jackson, 2B Scott Sizemore, RHP Jose Valverde, RHP Phil Coke
2010 outlook: The Tigers went to Game No. 163 last year and fell just short. Their rotation is deeply stacked to make the long haul again, and they have one of the game's top hitters in Miguel Cabrera who can carry an offense by himself. And yet I smell fish.
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The biggest loss from this team will be Polanco. Detroit will also try and break a pair of rookies into the everyday mix in Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore. There is some depth in the outfield if Jackson can't cut it, but if Sizemore doesn't get the hang of it the Tigers have Ramon Santiago in reserve who is, by the way, the backup shortstop for Adam Everett who hit all of .238 with a .613 OPS last year. I love Adam Everett by the way, just sayin'.
There is also a mental block on my part about this team after watching Jose Valvomit, er, Valverde close games for my Astros the past couple of seasons. The good news for Detroit is assuming Joel Zumaya can get back healthy, Jim Leyland has decent bullpen and closing depth. Listen for the name Fu-Te Ni if you haven't seen the guy pitch already.
Free MLB Pick: 83 wins, 3rd in AL Central
Baltimore Orioles 100/1
2009 record/finish: 64-98, 5th in AL East
Departing: UTL Aubrey Huff, 3B Melvin Mora,
Arriving: INF Miguel Tejada, RHP Kevin Millwood, LHP Mike Gonzalez,
2010 outlook: This is where Schoenfield's realignment plan based on fairness falls apart. If the attempt to level the playing field was really the task, then MLB would never allow idiots like Peter Angelos into the game. But then as comedian Ron White is fond of saying, "You can't fix stupid."
I've got no clue if there is a plan at all with this team. Hayzeus H. Christ, and pardon my language, but why in the hell bring Tejada back now? Good lord, there has to be a total mental midget behind this move. I've got no idea how Tejada will move to 3B, if that really is the plan, and truly believe he will enjoy at least a .280-14 HR-60 RBI season for the O's. But why? There are other plug-ins at third until September or next spring when Josh Bell should get there.
I just don't understand the plan with this team. Could someone tell me?
Free MLB Pick: 62 wins, 5th in AL East
Trivia answer: Don Baylor played in three consecutive World Series for the 1986 Red Sox, 1987 Twins and 1988 Athletics.
Part 5 of a 10-part series. To check out what nonsense I've been spewing about other clubs, click the links below in a table listing Bodog futures odds to win the World Series as of Jan 13, 2010.