Boston Red Sox and Florida Marlins on Hot and Cold Streaks!

You’ll see 10-game win streaks, 10-game losing streaks, pitchers ripping off 7-straight wins, teams losing 4-straight one-run games. All these add to the excitement and interest in the game and MLB betting. 

From a betting perspective, however, streaks need to be approached with a careful eye and a cautious head. Playing against “the law of averages” is no way to wager.  For example, some bettors think, “This team has won nine in a row, therefore it’s time to bet against them, as they’re due for a losing streak.” This doesn’t work in the world of eleven-to-ten. 

Stumbling June for the Marlins 

The Florida Marlins have had a miserable June, starting 1-19, costing the manager his job. When they lost six in a row, someone playing the law of averages might have back them expecting a quick turnaround. After all, the Marlins weren’t a bad team, one that had surprised in April and May while battling the Phillies for first place. 

Still, they lost nine in a row before finally winning. Was that then the time to back a hot streak? Florida then proceeded to lose ten in a row, including as a betting odds favorite of minus-140 in a 12-9 home loss to Arizona. Florida actually isn’t a bad team, losing ten times during that miserable run by just a single run, so a few breaks here or there and they could have won a bunch of games. But the point is trying to predict when their turnaround will happen from a wagering standpoint is impossible. 

Many times there are reasons for slumps like this. Florida was banged up offensively and had trouble getting runners on base, ranked 25^th in runs scored and they can’t manufacture runs, just 23^rd in steals. The Oakland A’s had their own troubles at the same time as the Marlins, losing 13 of 14 games (six times as chalk). Much of that slump was on the road, a brutal trip to the East Coast, a ten-game trip that took them through Boston, Baltimore and Chicago.  But last week they turned around and won six in a row, largely because they returned home. 

There are many factors with streaks. In 2004, the Boston Red Sox played close to .500 baseball much of the season from May through mid-August. Starting on August 16, the Sox won six in a row. If you support the law of averages, you might conclude that the Sox would be due for several losses and bet against them. In fact, they did lose, 3-0 to Toronto ending that streak – only to then go on a ten-game win streak. When that streak ended, they won nine of the next 12 games. The “anticipated” losing streak never arrived. Simply put, the law of averages can’t predict what is going to happen the next game, or the next ten games. 

Are there reasons for the slumps? 

Some teams can slip out of a funk that had gone on for weeks, as the Red Sox did in 2004 and the first two weeks of this season (2-10 start), and begin to play very well. In fact, that’s the point – there are almost always tangible reasons why a team goes on hot or cold streaks, more so than the law of averages. In the above example, the Sox had improved their defense by adding several players at the trading deadline, including SS Orlando Cabrera. It took a few weeks, but the improved defense and attitude was real and they showed it by playing winning ball on the field the rest of the season. 

Sometimes injuries can play a role, especially if an ace pitcher is out, and other times teams go into a collective hitting or pitching slump. The Cardinals had a 3-9 skid this month because of injuries on offense, including star slugger Albert Pujols, plus the starting pitching has slumped. The Indians fired their batting coach last week as the offense dipped during their 8-16 slump. 

On the other side of the coin, the Twins (Minnesota plays the Dodgers tonight) and Mariners have had impressive surges the last month that can be directly tied to their starting rotation. Both have been getting quality starts and can go four deep, which prevents losing skids and can help key a winning streak. The Twins had that remarkable run winning 15 of 17 games – if you had wagered against them expecting the streak to end, you could have lost your shirt. 

The 1988 season offers two great examples of why not to mess with streaks. The Baltimore Orioles lost their first 21 games to start the season. Sports bettors playing the law of averages hoping the Orioles “were due to win” blew out their betting bankrolls before May 1^st. Then at the All-Star break, a .500 Red Sox team in fourth place came out like gangbusters going 19-1 to get right back in the pennant race. Overall, it’s better to ride a hot team or continue to bet against a cold team, than to rely on the “law of averages” and wager the other way.