Boston Red Sox & Rays prove MLB comebacks offer go-against spots

One thing to keep in mind as a sports handicapper is that teams that pull off a dramatic rally can sometimes be flat the next game, especially in baseball and these can be teams to look for in the baseball odds. 

Baseball managers are often forced to use their best relief pitchers when coming back, especially if a game goes extra innings. This can lead to fewer quality options out of the bullpen the next day. Also, the team pulling off the comeback will feel a rush of adrenaline and euphoria. This can lead to a letdown the next game, as they could be a bit out of gas. 

Roller coaster Rays 

The Tampa Bay Rays got their first victory this season with a thrilling comeback at Chicago, a 9-7 win despite trailing 7-4 in the ninth.  It was an emotional 24 hours. Manny Ramirez retired a few earlier rather than face a 100-game suspension and then Dan Johnson hit a three-run homer. Johnson came into the game with a .043 average before droving the first pitch out!  The good karma didn’t last, however, as the next night the Rays looked out of gas, getting six hits in a 4-2 defeat where they were even money in Las Vegas. 

A month later the Rays had another thriller, beating the Rangers 5-4 when Evan Longoria hit a go-ahead two-run homer in the eighth inning. The next night Tampa Bay was a minus-140 betting odds home favorite over those same Rangers with ace David Price on the mound. Yet, they had five total hits in a 3-0 defeat.  A lot of things can happen, from a letdown spot the next night, overconfidence, a team utilizing its best relievers in a close game then being at a disadvantage the next game. And over the course of 162 games, there are many roller coaster moments where a team simply doesn’t have it emotionally. 

A few years ago the Mets (Mets play the Angels this evening) came from 4-0 down to eventually win 5-4 as Cubs reliever Michael Wuertz walked three straight batters with two outs in the ninth inning! The Mets were forced to use three of their top relievers in the game. The next night the Mets were a minus-160 home favorite, but lost 10-1 to Chicago. They got out-hit 15-6. 

That’s the other aspect of comebacks – the team that’s saddled with the loss. They can be so fired up for blowing one that they play with extra fire the next night to try and erase the bad loss. That same month the Marlins had a dramatic comeback against the Padres, hitting back-to-back 8^th innings home runs to turn a 4-3 potential loss into a thrilling 5-4 win. The next night the Marlins were a home favorite, but lost 7-6.

Another factor to consider is the lineup. If a team is riding a nice win streak, managers often begin to give players a rest and turn to their bench, which is understandable. But a manager riding a 5-game losing streak or off of a frustrating collapse might be more inclined to go with his best players, rather than give a star player the day off. It’s important to carefully scan teams, line-ups and situations. 

‘M’ is for momentum  

Emotion can be cranked up even higher when rivals meet on the diamond.   A few years ago during an early series between AL East rivals Boston and New York, the Red Sox completed an emotional three-game sweep with a stunning 7-6 comeback win. That was the game the Sox turned a 3-0 deficit into a 4-3 lead with home runs by Manny Ramirez, J.D. Drew, Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek all in a row (on 10 pitches). "I haven't been part of anything like that, not even in Little League," 3B Lowell said. "The dugout was going crazy." 

After that emotional game and sweep, the Sox were a minus-200 home favorite over Toronto the next night, but looked flat in a 7-3 defeat. "It just seemed like it was a lethargic day," Boston catcher Doug Mirabelli said afterward. "There wasn't the energy that we've had." 

This season, the Red Sox got their first win after that brutal 0-6 start by beating the Yankees in two of three games. In the final game Josh Beckett topped C.C. Sabathia, 4-0, in the emotional finale at Fenway Park with the crowd roaring. The next night the Red Sox welcomed struggling Tampa Bay to town – and lost 16-5 as a minus-155 favorite. Making matters worse it carried over, with Boston losing three in a row after the Yankees came to town. 

You may have heard the old sports axiom, “Losing hurts more than winning feels good.” Professional athletes often can’t wait to get back on the field after a frustrating, heart-breaking loss to atone for the previous night’s sour ending. Other times, teams off thrilling comeback wins can be flat. All of which can make for a potential sports betting go-against the next game.