Questions on the mound, especially the back of the rotation and inexperience in the 'pen, will lead to the Detroit Tigers finishing behind Chicago and Minnesota.
The 2010 Detroit Tigers look mediocre heading into spring training. Their pitching staff is the biggest question mark as they have only two proven starters and a young, inexperienced bullpen.
The addition of Johnny Damon is huge for this lineup as the Tigers really needed another middle of the order bat. With Damon, this is a lineup no pitcher will be eager to face.
Defensively this team should improve slightly on their 11th-ranked defense by adding Austin Jackson in center. All things add up to the Tigers being incapable of challenging for the AL Central title this season.
Offense
Detroit has a nice mix of veterans and fresh faces. The Tigers traded Curtis Granderson for their new centerfielder, Jackson, who batted .300 with 24 steals and New York's Triple-A site last season. He is a young player without a lot of experience, but boatloads of talent. The Tigers expect him to strike out less than Granderson and to hit for a higher average.
Behind him they have the veterans in Damon, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordoñez. These three are as reliable as they come, but after all the abuse Cabrera took last season, I’m expecting a better year than usual from him.
After them you have Brandon Inge, who does not hit for average but is a pretty good run producer. The last three batters will be some combination of Adam Everett, Gerald Laird and whoever starts at second, Ramon Santiago or Scott Sizemore. None of these three are anything special offensively.
The bottom of the order is a little worrisome as they do not have one person who has a career average over .250. Look for this offense to struggle to turn the lineup over at times, but they have so much talent at the top that this unit should be productive enough.
Defense
The Tigers have upgraded from a year ago. Granderson is average in center with a slightly below average arm. In his defense, Comerica has a ton of space in centerfield. Newcomer Jackson is considered an upgrade in center as he has above average range and a good arm. Look for him to struggle adjusting to the extra space in center early, but flourish late.
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Everett was mediocre at short last season and I expect him to have a better defensive season this year. Placido Polanco was one of the worst defensive second basemen in the league last year according to zone ratings as he ranked 16th out of 19 everday second basemen. This should improve with Santiago who is a shortstop by trade or Sizemore taking over there.
Damon adds range to the outfield despite having a punch line for an arm. This move does not considerably weaken the Tigers as they did not have an everyday left fielder last season.
Finally, Cabrera giving up the booze should give him some added range at first base that he has been losing over the last couple seasons. This unit should improve slightly this season.
Pitching
The weakness of this squad going into spring training is without question the pitching staff. Beginning with the starters, Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello provide a solid front end. Behind them Max Scherzer is expected to be the third starter and has huge upside. I’m going to be a little cautious in anointing him before the season because we’ve seen some disastrous transitions from the NL to the AL in recent years.
The final two rotation spots will come down to a battle between Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robinson, Dontrelle Willis, Eddie Bonine, and Armando Galarraga. I wouldn’t be thrilled with having any of them at the back of the rotation, unless Willis can return to his Florida form.
As for the bullpen Detroit appears to have upgraded at closer adding by Jose Valverde and dropping Fernando Rodney. Again, Valverde is coming over from the NL so you never know.
The Tigers are looking for Joel Zumaya to be their go-to eight inning guy despite having arm problems and his considerable struggles since his terrific rookie campaign.
Two pitchers out of Bobby Seay, Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth and Phil Coke will need to step up and have productive seasons if this unit is playoff worthy.
The Tigers are trying to employ a young bullpen, which could prove disastrous. This club has a lot of pitching questions to answer if they are going to play into October.
Prediction
This season the Tigers' win total is placed at 80½. This I will not be playing, but I have to lean towards the 'under.' I am picking this squad to finish third in the AL Central behind the White Sox and Twins. They just have too many question marks surrounding their pitching staff and bottom of the batting order. When comparing them to the White Sox and Twins I just don’t think they stack up. I would not be very surprised if they even fall to fourth behind an Indians team a lot of people are sleeping on.