Ricky Nolasco and Bud Norris take the mound for the Florida Marlins and Houston Astros in a game which scoring looks like it will be awfully hard to come by.
With a rookie pitcher that has enjoyed success in his young career on one side and one of the hottest pitchers in baseball on the other side, this game looks to have all of the makings of a pitchers dual.
Bud Norris has only pitched in three games in his major league career; once in relief and two starts. Overall, he has allowed just three runs in 16.0 innings pitched, good for a 1.69 ERA. He also has a very impressive 1.13 WHIP and a .148 batting average against to go along with the sparkling ERA.
His two starts were both wins against respectable offenses; seven innings of zero run baseball at St. Louis, and two runs over six innings against Milwaukee. Even if he does hit a stumbling block today, if he keeps it within reason (say four runs over six innings), his opponent should be able to do the rest in keeping this total under.
Ricky Nolasco has been simply dazzling since June. After starting the season off very poorly, Nolasco worked out the kinks in a short minor league stint and has been a dominant force ever since. Since his first start of June, Nolasco has started in 12 games, and has a line of 80.1 IP, 2.58 ERA, 1.00 WHIP.
Even more impressive, in those 12 starts, Nolasco has only been pulled from the game in the middle of an inning once, and he has given up two earned runs or less in 10 of the 12 games. 10 of the 12 games were under 8.5 runs combined.
The Astros offense is ranked 24th in the league, averaging just under 4.2 runs per game. With the way Nolasco has been pitching, this looks like the type of offense that he can dominate, and I expect him to do so.
If Bud Norris can hold up his end of the bargain and not get completely shelled, the under should cash in this one. I think Norris will be up to the task, and the Marlins will win in a low scoring affair.
The Pick: Houston Astros @ Florida Marlins Under 8.5 Runs (-115)