Halladay vs. Weaver? Pitching Breakdown for the 2011 MLB All Star Game

Many feel that the MLB is moving back to the days where the pitcher had the advantage. With the American League and the National League putting their best on the mound, should we expect a low scoring pitching clinic?

Yogi Berra once said, "Good pitching beats good hitting, and vice versa." As is usually the case, it's tough to argue with Yogi's wisdom. 

Good pitching and good hitting will both be on display Tuesday night at Chase Field in Phoenix when baseball holds its 82nd All Star Game. The National League, having broken its 13-year drought last season with a 3-1 win, is a -120 favorite on the MLB odds board with the an 8.5-run total, -120 to the UNDER. 

A recent article by Elihu Feustel noted some baseball betting angles for this crapshoot of an exhibition game. Nothing personal to my colleague, but count this recreational bettor among those who don't see any similarities between this game and a Super Bowl. True, casual MLB bettors may be more inclined to make a bet, but they're no longer inclined to bet the OVER in any MLB games these days. 

MLB books scraped in a lot of coin from Ol' John Q. during the height of the Steroids Era (1996-2001) when five of six All-Star Games stayed below the total. But Mr. Public has seen ESPN talking about the swing back towards the advantage being with pitchers now. We may be square, but we're not stupid. 

Does that mean the UNDER is a lock, that pitchers will dominate this game? No. First, there's no such thing as a lock. We've seen OVERS this season in getaway action with each club resting two regulars and throwing their aces. 

Chase Field is also among the better parks for hitters, though sports books have done a pretty good job splitting up the totals there in 2011. The first 42 games have resulted in a slight lean to the UNDER (19-22-1 O/U). Teams have combined to score nearly 9.6 runs per game in Phoenix so far, with 9-run totals the norm. 

The starters 

Starting pitchers for Tuesday's game had yet to be officially announced, though word leaked late Sunday that Angels ace Jered Weaver would given the honors by AL manager Ron Washington. It makes perfect sense for Weaver to get the assignment as he will be pitching on regular rest and currently leads all of baseball with a 1.86 ERA. 

This will be his first all-star appearance and the first time many of the starting position players from the NL have seen him. Matt Kemp has the most experience, going 3-12 (.250) with no extra base hits and five strikeouts in 15 plate appearances. Matt Holliday, a top candidate to fill the initial DH slot for the NL, is 3-5 with a walk and a double in six chances against Weaver. 

He's made one career start at Chase Field, a winning effort in 2009 when he worked six innings and allowed three runs, all coming home via long balls by Stephen Drew and Tony Clark. 

National League dugout commander Bruce Bochy was mum on his plans, but indications were his choice was between Philadelphia's Roy Halladay and Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw. It would be hard to argue with either. 

It's the eighth time Halladay has been named an all-star and he's made five appearances in the Midsummer Classic, including a start for the '09 AL squad. Halladay hasn't always been lights out at the game, made evident by his 8.10 ERA in a span of 6.2 innings. He's been unbeatable in his last four interleague starts, however, including all three this year against the Rangers, A's and Blue Jays ending in Phillie wins.

He would be pitching on 3-days rest while Kershaw would be pitching on the normal four. Like Weaver, it would be Kershaw's first All-Star Game appearance, and it would set up an interesting battle between the two Los Angeles hurlers who met twice recently in interleague battles between the Angels and Dodgers. Kershaw won the first encounter on June 26 while Weaver picked up the win in the July 2 meeting. 

One AL hitter who has seen Kershaw a lot over the years is Boston 1B Adrian Gonzalez who faced the LA southpaw while a member of the Padres. Gonzalez struggled a bit vs. Kershaw, going 5-25 (.200) with 10 K's. Kershaw has also excelled inside the desert dome, going 2-1 in three Chase Field starts with a 2.50 ERA and 26 K's in 18 innings. 

Atlanta's Jair Jurrjens could be a surprise choice by Bochy, though not a surprise based on his numbers. Jurrjens ranks second in the majors to Weaver with a 1.87 ERA and will have had five days since his last start. I look for Kershaw to be followed by Jurrjens, Halladay and Cliff Lee, a quartet that would take Bochy and the NL through the fifth inning on Tuesday. Jurrjens could also be held until the very end in case the game went to extra innings.

Washington's plans for following Weaver will come from a list that includes Boston's Josh Beckett, Seattle rookie Michael Pineda, Oakland's Gio Gonzalez, Toronto's Ricky Romero and his own Rangers hurlers, Alexi Ogando and CJ Wilson. Gonzalez, Romero and Wilson are the only southpaws available to Washington.

The relievers 

With Mariano Rivera opting out of the game, the most experienced closer Washington has is Jose Valverde. Though prone to the occasional implosion on the mound throughout his career, the Tigers closer has put up solid numbers this season with 24 saves and a 2.70 ERA. 

Valverde also knows this stadium having spent five seasons with the D-Backs and another two seasons in Houston giving him a good amount of experience with NL hitters. If we concede all NL starters will be out of the game by the time Valverde appear, the one NL sub he probably doesn't want to see at is Matt Holliday (4-9, HR). Cincinnati trio Joey Votto, Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce are a combined 1-15, a Votto single the lone hit.

Valverde's only other All-Star Game appearance came last season in Anaheim. He was called upon to pitch the top of the ninth with the AL trailing 3-1, and he struck out all three batters he faced (Michael Bourn, Chris Young and Marlon Byrd). 

Yankees setup arm David Robertson, a late replacement addition to the AL Squad, could be the arm that precedes Valverde to the hill. Robertson has yet to allow a long ball this year and has struck out 56 batters in 35.1 innings. The other AL relievers are Kansas City's Aaron Crow, Seattle's Brandon League, Cleveland's Chris Perez and Angels rookie Jordan Walden. 

Logic dictates NL manager Bruce Bochy will hold his own San Francisco reliever, Brian Wilson, as the closer if the NL has the lead heading to the top of the final inning. That might be interesting since both he and Valverde went head to head in the 9th-inning at Comerica Park on July 1, and neither came away without taking a hit to their ERA's. 

Wilson actually blew the save for the Giants, his fourth of the season against 26 saves, but got the win. It will be the first time many of the AL reserves will face the righthander. Youkilis has seen Wilson once, tripling in that lone at bat. Jhonny Peralta has three singles in three trips to the plate vs. Wilson. Carlos Quentin has a walk and a single in two plate appearances. 

Wilson was a part of the 2008 and 2010 NL clubs, but did not appear in either game. Expect Bochy to save Atlanta setup lefty Jonny Venters for a late-inning appearance against a tough left-handed AL stick. San Diego's Heath Bell might serve as Wilson's setup for this game, with the rest of the NL relievers being Atlanta's rookie Craig Kimbrel, who leads the majors with 28 saves, Nationals setup arm Tyler Clippard and Pittsburgh closer Joel Hanrahan.