MLB betting in April: Big dogs or Big Chalk?

He was supposed to win, of course, as a minus-175 favorite and got the money with ease. But notice that it was his FIRST victory of the season in his fifth start.  And that's the thing with big favorites in baseball: They don't win as often as you might think.

Sabathia opened the season against the Detroit Tigers as minus-145 favorite. The Yankees won, though C.C. didn't factor into the decision. Then he was favored again in his next two starts as a favorite of minus-210 and minus-120. The New York Yankees lost both games, 6-5 to Minnesota and 4-0 at Boston. So the team started 3-2 in his starts and he didn't get a win until start No. 5. Laying the wood in all of those starts won't get you a profit.

Many new sports bettors may look at the matchups and lean toward the ace pitchers and lay the big price, but I would advise against that. Baseball is unique from football and basketball in that there is no point spread. Instead you bet merely on which team will win the game, and this translates into a money-line wager.

For example, the Red Sox had a good week, but they had that awful start to the season. During a series at Cleveland they were favored in every game at -160, -175 and -160 with name pitchers on the mound (Jon Lester, Matzusaka and Josh Beckett), yet lost every game, 3-1, 8-4 and 1-0.

That series gives you a good idea why simply backing the favored pitcher doesn't work. Two of the games the offenses on each side didn't hit. Part of the reason was the weather, it was cool and damp during those games, which can make hitting a baseball difficult, particularly early in the season before the summer heats things up. In a 1-0 game, like the one Lester lost, any one small factor can determine the outcome: an error, an ill-timed walk, a lucky bloop hit, a bad outing by a relief pitcher.

As a bettor who is trying to grind out a profit over the long haul, backing too many favorites, especially big ones, is not that way to go.   When betting baseball, most serious handicappers look for prices that are close to even money (for example, -120, -135 favorites or +105, +130 underdogs).  Or smart bettors will play baseball totals where, like NFL and NBA totals, there is a point spread set on each game and the line is usually minus-110 OVER or UNDER each total. 

The reason is simple: You need to pay serious attention to money-management when wagering on sports. You may like to bet on Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez or David Price because they are so dominant, but you end up laying roughly three dollars for every one you hope to win and, over the long haul, you are very likely to lose money. This is why you rarely find professional handicappers giving out ace pitchers that are priced as a two-dollar or more favorites.

I recall one opening stretch to the season a few years ago when big name pitchers were big favorites: Lefty Mike Hampton was a minus-210 favorite at home over Woody Williams and the Padres. Hampton lost a 14-10 Coors Field shootout. Bartolo Colon was a –220 home favorite over Baltimore and lost 8-4, while Pedro Martinez was minus-270 over the Orioles and lost 2-1 in ten innings.  And there were plenty more: Barry Zito (-170) a 6-4 loser to Anaheim, Al Leiter (-170) a 5-2 defeat to Montreal, Tim Hudson (-170) a 7-3 loser to Seattle, Jim Parque (-175) a 10-9 loser in 10 innings to the Tigers and Randy Johnson (-280) a 9-4 loser at home to Rick Ankiel and St. Louis. Remember: All of those occurred in the first 14 days of the baseball season!

This season the big story as far as pitching has been the Phillies and their rotation for the ages with Halladay, Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels. They have had a great start, but still lost 6 of their first 16 games, including losing as a minus-190 favorite twice and a 9-0 loss to the Brewers as a two-dollar favorite.

Betting the big favorites on a regular basis is dangerous and there's little value in it. Think about the value: You have to win 2 out of every 3 of those wagers just to break even. That's roughly a 66% winning percentage just to stay afloat, or in the case of Roy Halladay at minus-270, an even higher percentage. It's not worth it to get hooked on the big favorites because you may get away with it once and a while, but over the long haul, your bankroll will get wiped out. 

There are so many factors that can come into play in baseball. For example, the wind could be blowing out, making both starting pitchers vulnerable to a lot of runs and a lot of pitches. This could mean that your ace would throw 100 pitches in five innings. If that's the case, he would be prone to tire around the 120-pitch mark, and/or the game would be turned over the bullpen, something you hadn't counted on. Then, all of a sudden the game is in the relief pitcher's hands, rather than the staff ace that you were counting on to go 8-9 innings.

Or a team may fall apart defensively. A couple of ill-timed errors with two outs and two men on base via walks, and you're down 3-0. You hadn't factored in the errors, only the great starting pitcher.  Sometimes teams get pumped up to face an ace, particularly at home, and want to get a win. And sometimes big-name pitchers simply don't have it for various reasons. Beckett was marred by injuries in 2009 and the second half of the 2008 season, while Cleveland's Fasuto Carmona went from 19-game winner to 8-7 the next season because he couldn't throw strikes and his ERA ballooned to 5.44. Pitchers aren't always the same from year to year.

MLB Lines are often being set on what the pitcher did last year, not the current season, especially in April and May. Even the park can change, like Minnesota last year building a new stadium, or a pitcher traded for a pitcher-friendly park like San Diego to a home-run happy park in the American League.  All these variables need to be considered. Also, what if the starting pitcher gets injured? Or there's a rain delay, and the big favorite pitcher only goes three innings?  If you had known this before the game started, you probably wouldn't have taken the big price. In baseball, look for spots with big dogs rather than the big favorites. The goal is not to win every single wager, but to look for value and grind out a consistent profit over the long haul.