is no doubt that the heaviest betting sport is the NFL, which is possibly the most
difficult sport to make money on over the course of a season, and I often remark that the amateur bettor is missing out on arguably the best money-making
NFL games are often determined by
a late fourth quarter turnover, or even a bad call by a referee that has a
decisive impact on whether a bet wins or loses against the spread. I am not
saying that there are not opportunities still in the NFL, but rather that a
162-game MLB season can offer far more betting opportunities with better
risk/reward profiles than in the NFL.
One of the simplest tools I like
to use to identify possible betting opportunities is to look for game results
where the winner scored more than 15 runs. Baseball is one of those great
sports where consistency is needed to win, but on any small sample, size can
produce extreme ranges in performance levels. One of the easiest is the 15-run
rule that I use over the course of the season.
I will highlight a few teams in
the weeks ahead to show some of the results, but rest assured that this
simplest of rules will do well for you over the course of a season. Many times,
you will be playing on a sub .500 team that was blown out the previous game and
will get juicy and inflated MLB lines as the public incorrectly identifies the
favorite as a can’t lose play.
For 2012, the first game to
feature the qualifier was when Colorado scored 17 runs in a 17-8 win over the
Giants on April 11. In taking the Giants the next day, you would have enjoyed a
4-2 win with the Giants installed as a -120 favorite.
The next game occurred with a
Texas drubbing of the Red Sox 18-3 on April 17. In next game where you would have been on the Red Sox, it would have been a 6-3 loss with the Red Sox installed as
The Red Sox were a victim in the
next occurrence, losing to the Yankees 15-9 on April 21. Thankfully, for the then-struggling Red Sox, the game that was to be the Sunday Night Baseball featured
game was postponed. Even though I say this sarcastically, the Red Sox
would have been severely undervalued for that game, and it would have been an
On April 27, the Rockies clobbered
the Mets 18-9. In the next game, you would have played the Mets and cashed the
ticket with a 7-5 Mets win. In that game, the Mets were installed as a +130 dog
May 2 saw the Braves defeat the
Phillies in a wild game 15-13, where ironically the starters were ace Roy
Halladay and the Braves Tommy Hanson. In the next game, played May 3, the
Phillies won the game and were installed as +110 dogs.
For the 2012 season, there have
been four plays with three of the winning and producing a net gain of 2.40
units per one unit wagered. Even if that were the only plays you made, it
is a very strong result for the difficult
month of April in MLB.
My MLB results will feature
nearly 75% of all plays made being on dogs. There is no doubt that to be
successful in baseball betting, you must be able to identify and handicap situations
where the dog has a true chance of winning the game. One of my best and most
profitable situations, which you can follow on my MLB with John Ryan thread, is
the two or three team parlay involving three dogs of +140 and higher.
In these situations, the parlays
significantly augment the profits produced by the dogs by themselves. With a
three-team dog card with each dog lined at +140 or higher, you can make a
significant profit simply by going 2-1 on the day. On many occasions, you will see
these cards include dogs nearing +200, which makes the risk/reward profiles
When an amateur bets MLB, the
heavy favorites will be identified as easy winners. These are the popular teams
like the Yankees, Phillies, and Rangers. As a result of the public's irrational
exuberance regarding these teams, the lines will be adjusted by MLB odds makers in their
favor. The mistake made by the amateur is that they do not care paying -220
instead of -180 as they will view either as having a strong probability of
I encourage you to track dogs of +250 and higher
and monitor their results against these heavy favorites. You will see first
hand in the 2012 season that, in betting these mammoth dogs that apparently
have no chance of winning the way, that they do indeed win about 45% of of the
time. Another easy and simple way for you to make smart sports picks
and line your
pockets with money.