One general rule by baseball betting sharps is to lay off money line favorites of 150 or more. But that doesn't mean to stay away ffrom betting those games completely.
When betting on baseball it is essential to find teams that can outperform the money lines installed by oddsmakers. It is all about finding value in key situations. As a general rule of thumb most professional bettors, aka sharps, will tend to lay no more than -150 on a favorite. So a favorite listed at over -150 you must absolutely love, because the value is not on your side.
Another option is to take a shot on that favorite that is listed at over a -150 price on the Run Line instead of the Money Line. Run Lines can be profitable, you must be careful to pick and choose your spots when you want to lay 1½ runs though.
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A tip I can give you before betting a favorite on a Run Line is to check the pitcher you are going to invest in to see how many games he started that his team won by two runs or more. For example I will use Andy Pettite, the Yankees are 6-0 straight up in all of his games this season, he has won all six of those games by two runs or more, making him a perfect 6-0 on the Run Line. Pettite right now is a profitable choice, instead of risking laying over -150 with him on the Money Line you may want to look at him on the Run Line.
Now I will take a look at Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals, he is 6-1 in all of his starts this year. The Cardinals have only won three of his starts by more than 2 runs though, making him a negative 3-4 on the Run Line this season. So that proves you need to do your homework before backing a big Ace on the mound on a Run Line thinking their team is a lock to win by more than 2 runs. Try to find pitchers that have won 58% or more of their starts by two runs or more, and you must include the games they lost into the record as well.
You also need to have an open mind on finding live dogs. Laying -150 or more in chalk is not a profitable long term proposition for baseball bettors, you need to hit 60% of your bets laying -150 to break even. Playing +150 dogs you only need to win 40% of those bets to break even. So do not be scared to step up and invest in an underdog if you seem to think they have an advantage.
Look at a pitcher like Scott Olsen of the Washington Nationals, he has been installed as an underdog in every single game he started this year. The Nats are 4-1 in all of his starts this year, and he is up 5.77 units of profit already this year.
Phillip Hughes of the Yankees has the same exact 4-1 record as Scott Olsen, only difference is that he has been installed as a favorite in five of his starts this year. Olsen is up 2.24 units of profit this year, less than half of what Olsen is.
When investing in dogs try to find pitchers that have been a profitable investment for bettors in underdog situations, or try to fade pitchers that have not been profitable when installed as favorites. Look to fade a guy like Tom Gorzelanny of the Chicago Cubs when installed as a favorite, he has lost five of his six starts this year, yet oddsmakers have installed him as a favorite in five of those six games. Gorzelanny is down -5.11 units this year,
Javier Vazquez of the Yankees has been installed as a favorite in all five of his games simply because he pitches for the Yankees but he is 1-4 in all of these starts. Vazquez is down -4.72 units this year. Over the long haul fading a bad pitcher that is on a good team usually turns out profitable, There is no value in laying two to one odds with a hurler like Vazquez who has a 9.78 ERA. If he was on any other team besides the Yankees he would be a large dog. Do yourself a favor and get the jump on the betting public by trying to find angles in value lines like this.