San Francisco got on the board first in this crucial MLB betting series, taking a 7-3 win on Thursday. The Padres look to even things up behind lefty Clayton Richard tonight.
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At least for one night it was pitching be damned as the Giants and Padres engaged in a Petco Park slugfest with San Francisco earning a 7-3 win last night in the opener of a critical four-game MLB series. The combined 10 runs blew away the posted total of 6½ at Bookmaker.com, marking just the fourth ‘over’ in 12 previous series meetings.
No one, least of all the Giants, expected a home run derby to breakout at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. San Francisco entered the game having scored two runs or fewer in four of its seven games this month but broke out of the slump in a big way hitting four home runs against the top pitching staff in baseball.
Pat Burrell, Aubrey Huff, Buster Posey and Juan Uribe all went deep with Huff and Posey each driving in two runs. Matt Cain worked into the ninth inning for his 13th win of the season as the Giants moved to within a game of the first-place Padres in the National League Western Division. San Francisco is also one game back of Atlanta in the wild-card chase.
San Diego's offense is still sputtering and despite getting homers from Will Venable and Ryan Ludwick against Cain, has scored four runs or less in each of its last 12 games. Overall the Padres are 22nd in home runs, 25th in hitting (.249) and have scored 589 runs on the season, 12th in the National League. That lack of offense could eventually cost them the division lead and even a postseason shot.
On August 25, San Diego (79-60) had what looked like a safe 6½-game lead over San Francisco (79-62) in the division. But after 11 losses in 14 games, the Friars are hanging on for dear life. During the skid, the Padres pitching staff has recorded an ERA above 5.00 and that’s including the just concluded series with the Dodgers in which they allowed three total runs.
The Giants play the Padres in seven of their final 22 games – including the final series of the season at AT&T Park. Despite Thursday night’s win, San Francisco is just 3-9 versus San Diego this season and 4-11 against them at Petco since the start of the 2009 campaign. San Diego is in the midst of a stretch of games against NL West opponents in which the Pads will play seven games against the Giants and Rockies.
Looking at this evening’s MLB betting preview, a pair of left-handers will take center stage under the Friday night lights with Jonathan Sanchez (10-8, 3.39) going for the Giants opposite Clayton Richard (12-6, 3.43). Sanchez, who threw a no-hitter against SD last season, is 0-1 against the Padres this season with a 2-5 career mark and a healthy 2.88 ERA. San Diego is hitting just .177 against the Puerto Rican southpaw. Richard is 1-0 versus San Francisco this season and 3-1 lifetime.
You probably wouldn’t be surprised to see a headline blaring “Pinnacle opens the pitching-rich Padres as -105 favorites,” If the previous 12 games between the West rivals are any indication, then we’re liable to see another close, low-scoring game. The total opened at 6 ½ at TheGreek.com and several other fine establishments.
San Diego is 1-9 in its last 10 games after a loss. The Padres are also 2-8 in their last 10 games when favored. Trends point to another game where runs will be at a premium. The two teams are 9-3 to the low side in their last 12 engagements while the Giants are 7-3 to the MLB betting odds ‘under’ in their last 10 games.
Now I’d like to offer some unsolicited advice. If you’re only going to see or wager on one Giants and Padres game this weekend, save your money for Sunday and check out Bodog’s line for the Tim Lincecum versus Mat Latos showdown. Lincecum, the two-time reigning Cy Young champion suffered through the worst August of his career but in September is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA. The 22-year-old Latos, who missed being eligible for Rookie of the Year consideration this season by just two outs, has 14 wins and an ERA of 2.21 ERA, and that's after an April when he allowed 14 runs in just over 20 innings. He is riding a streak of 15 starts allowing two runs or less – the longest such run in over 65 years.
Will Sunday be the day that we see a total of 5 ½ or even 5 for the first time this season? With these two outstanding young pitchers on display, my money is on a season-low number.