Contrary to popular beliefs, interleague play can actually be the most profitable time of year for bettors that are willing to put in some extra work. Following AL aces is a nice start.
Betting interleague baseball has been one of the most profitable spans of the baseball season for me over the years.
It brings some life into the sportsbooks offshore and in Nevada, which in turn creates some value for us professional bettors. We do not get the value of the betting public investing into the lines as they do in other sports such as basketball or football over the span of the season but Interleague play and the playoffs draws some public interest.
The novice betting public will usually look to bet the game on ESPN or back the big name pitcher they are familiar with, which us sharps can fade and make some nice money going the other way during the interleague span. Over the past few years it has been validated that the American League holds the edge over the National League during Interleague play.
Many sharp bettors have caught on, the betting public is starting to catch on too now, but worst of all the oddsmakers caught on long before anybody. So betting on an American League sce pitcher such as Andy Pettite
, you are going to pay an extra 10 to 20 cents as to what the "true line" should be.
They know sharps would take full advantage of betting an American League ace against a National League team, so they have to add a premium to try to keep them away from betting on those games.
Sharps do not like to lay over -150 as a general rule, so for instance you may see an American League Ace getting a -160 price, but oddsmakers have added their 20 cents premium to the line, when in reality he should be only a -140 favorite.
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Sharps will generally stay away, and the betting public will lay the number with the premium, but oddsmakers are fine with that because they know over the long haul the betting public is not going to turn a profit. It's the fact they do not want the sharps pounding them for the duration of Interleague play.
There are ways around the system to still bet American League teams at a "fair" price though. Look to invest in American League starters from the back end of the rotation, the number three, four, and five guys in the rotation.
They will be priced much cheaper compared to an ace, and for the most part these guys still dominate the National League batters. You want to especially look to back them in home games where you can expect to catch them laying more true to value numbers and where they are in a comfortable setting at home.
Look at history because it does not lie, look at a team like the Colorado Rockies
, they have been historically a money burner during Interleague play over the years. Try to catch one of their front of the rotation starters as favorite and go the opposite way if all your handicapping variables add up. Teams like the Tigers
and Angels have always been very solid in Interleague play and usually make a smart investment.
The Angels
play a National League style of "small ball" and they usually have a pitching and hitting advantage, which gives them a nice edge if you catch them at a cheap price or a dog. Teams like the Angels or Tigers will be much more fairly priced than American League powerhouses like the Yankees and Red Sox, where you will not catch a valuable number.
An American League team with a starting staff as hot as the Devil Rays will usually dominate even the best of National League line ups they face, and if you see them at a cheap number they can be a strong investment. A high powered American League offense like the Texas Rangers will usually rock mediocre and weak National League pitching staffs. Making them a positive investment or even making the "over" a good look.
Do not get be scared to invest in National League teams though . Sometimes you may find a National League pitcher that has pitched in the American League before in his career, examples are guys like Roy Halladay,Johan Santana, or even much lesser known hurlers like Ian Kennedy. These guys have a lot of experience against American League hitters.
Find a pitcher that historically pitches well against American League teams during Interleague play, an example is Ricky Nolasco of the Marlins, who is 6-2 lifetime against the Junior Circuit. Try to invest in a National League team that is at home and against a pitcher from the American League who is making his first career start in that ballpark. This really works well if the pitcher has been struggling in away games during the season.
There are plenty of ways to conquer the books during Interleague play, sometimes it just takes a little extra homework and preparation, but there is plenty of value to be found. Best of luck during these next few weeks and think smart before buying into teams to bet on.