The Braves have been practically unbeatable at home this season, posting a 28-9 record at Turner Field and ready to add to that this weekend against the Florida Marlins.
The Florida Marlins and Josh Johnson visit Atlanta where they’ll take on the first-place Braves and Kris Medlen in the opener of a three-game set.
Atlanta begins the night with a record of 46-33 and a two-game lead over the Mets in the NL East. The Phillies are 4.5 games out while the Marlins (37-41) trail by 8.5. Florida’s best chance of cutting into the deficit comes tonight when they deal their mound ace.
In this well documented “Year of the Pitcher,” Johnson has been as good if not better than any major league pitcher not named Ubaldo Jimenez. Johnson, thanks to allowing just six earned runs in his last nine outings, has caught Ubaldo for the ERA lead at 1.83.
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It’s not often you’ll find a pitcher unhappy about allowing two runs during eight innings of work, but that was the case with Johnson in the aftermath of last Saturday’s 2-1 loss to the Padres. His streak of working at least six innings while allowing no more than one run in eight consecutive outings had come to end, but it was the loss more than the streak that bothered him.
Still, and if it’s any consolation, only one other pitcher in baseball history enjoyed a longer such streak and that was Hall of Famer Bob Gibson in 1968.
Johnson has spent his entire big league career with Florida and had his breakout season in 2006 going 11-5 as a starter with a 3.03 ERA. He was hampered by elbow injuries during 2007, pitching only 15 2/3 innings and going 0-3 before team officials shut him down and opted for surgery.
At the time, doctors estimated Johnson would be out anywhere from 12-18 months but almost miraculously he was back on the mound in less than a year and hasn’t missed a beat. Since his return in July 2008, Johnson is 30-9 over a stretch of 67 starts and 399 1/3 innings. His career record is a modest 42-19 with a not so modest .689 winning percentage.
Johnson is 8-3 this year and besides allowing less than two runs per nine innings of work, he’s also holding opposing hitters to a .199 average. He ranks 10th in the majors in strikeouts with 107 and has given the Fish 14 consecutive starts of at least six innings or more.
Lifetime against the Braves he’s 4-2 with an ERA of 2.70. All but one of his 12 appearances versus Atlanta has come as a starter.
Medlen (5-1, 3.15) will toe the rubber for the Braves. Medlen had been a reliever throughout most of his young Braves career before being moved into the starting rotation in May, and has been a huge hit. The 24-year old right-hander is 4-0 with a 3.40 ERA as a starter and is coming off his best outing of the year. Medlen worked 6 2/3 innings in a 3-1 win over the Tigers last Friday earning a “permanent” promotion to the rotation, a move that sends Kenshin Kawakami to the bullpen as the long man/spot starter.
Simply put, the Braves don’t lose very often at home. Atlanta is 28-9 at 'The Ted,' and if the Braves can turn things around on the road (18-24) they will be tough to beat in this division.
The Braves have taken four of six on their current homestand, doing it without much help from the offense. Over its past eight games Atlanta is hitting just .217 while averaging 3.0 runs and they are expected to struggle at least for another night against Johnson. If it’s true that “Chicks dig the Long Ball,” then the Braves probably don’t have many female followers.
Troy Glaus leads the club in home runs with 14 while the injured Jason Heyward has 11, but they’re the only Atlanta players in double digits in that department. The Braves' game is small ball and they’ve done it well averaging 4.73 runs per game, ninth-best in baseball.
Florida hits Turner Field fresh off an offensive free-for-all in Puerto Rico against the Mets in which they took two out of three scoring 22 runs and pounding out 39 hits in the process. The Marlins rank slightly ahead of the Braves in scoring at 4.76 runs per game and are 10th overall in hitting with a .265 average.
Defending NL batting champion Hanley Ramirez leads the Marlins attack way with a .296 average, 12 homers, 51 RBI and 15 stolen bases. His talent has never been questioned. However his attitude has. He should end up with huge numbers again this year if he decides to make “hustle” a consistent part of his game.
The Marlins, who took six of the nine series meetings in Atlanta last season, are -124 MLB odds favorites with the total at seven.
There are some strong trends suggesting a play on the 'under' tonight. Florida is 3-0 to the low side in Johnson’s last three starts while Atlanta is on a 6-1-1 'under' streak. However, the first time these teams met in May all three games topped the total.