The Red Sox lost a tough one to the Rays last night, as Tampa Bay got a run in the bottom of the ninth to win 3-2. Boston deserves credit for hanging in the race despite having practically an All-Star team on the Disabled List, but the loss last night leaves the Sox 5½ games behind both the Rays and the hated Yankees. Tonight’s ESPN Sunday Night Baseball game now becomes the biggest game of the year for the Red Sox.
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Johnny, can’t you come out to play in our empty garden?
All right, the Boston Red Sox Nation is way too manly to sing an Elton John song, even one from 1982. But the fate of the Nation may have turned on Johnny Damon’s decision to spurn his former team by refusing to waive his no-trade clause and leave the Detroit Tigers.
The Red Sox (73-55, 2.20 units) are in serious need of some outfield help as they scramble to get back in the American League playoff hunt, where they trail the Tampa Bay Rays (78-49, 8.30 units) and the New York Yankees by 5.5 games with just 34 games remaining for Boston.
Here’s a list of who’s in the Red Sox infirmary ward.
OF Jacoby Ellsbury (ribs, possibly done for season)
OF Mike Cameron (abdomen, done for season)
OF Eric Patterson (neck, early September)
1B Kevin Youkilis (thumb, out for season)
2B Dustin Pedroia (foot, possibly done for season)
C Jason Varitek (foot, early September)
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (leg, mid-September)
And those are just the position players. Relievers Hideki Okajima (hamstring) and Junichi Tazawa (elbow) are also out, and starter Daisuke Matsuzaka was scratched from his next start with a sore back. That start was to be on Friday against the Rays, who are fit as a fiddle by comparison and are 20-9 in their last 29 games versus the Red Sox at Tropicana Field.
The AL East race and the Wild Card race are pretty much the same thing, so the results of this weekend’s three-game set could make or break which of these two teams is going to make the playoffs. Sure doesn’t look good for Boston's MLB odds right now.
Friday: Jon Lester vs. David Price
Lester (3.35 xFIP) was supposed to pitch Wednesday night against the Seattle Mariners, but he was held back to Friday as the Sox shuffled their rotation to deal with the more pressing threat of the Rays.
That means Lester will be pitching on six days of rest instead of his usual four. Boston is 2-5 in his last seven starts to fall to 14-11 on the season, 5.01 units in the red. Price (4.00 xFIP) has a team record of 17-7 for a profit of 5.94 units, and the Rays have won five of his last six starts. The betting odds have Tampa Bay as a slim –125 favorite with a total of seven runs.
Saturday: Clay Buchholz vs. Matt Garza
It’ll be five days of rest for Buchholz (4.21 xFIP), who has a personal record of 15-5 with a 2.26 ERA. That’s great for Boston bettors; Buchholz is fourth on the MLB money list with 11.51 units of profit on a team record of 17-5.
But this is an investment bubble that should burst at some point. Buchholz is the beneficiary of a very low 5.5 percent ratio between home runs and fly balls, down from 14.7 percent in 2007 and 15.7 percent in 2008. The 6-foot-3 righty also has a .265 BABIP, compared to Lester at a more normal .295. Garza (4.35 xFIP) is getting some luck himself with a .267 BABIP, but the Rays are only 0.11 units ahead on a team record of 15-10 with Garza on the mound.
Sunday: John Lackey vs. James Shields
This week’s Sunday Night Baseball broadcast on ESPN has the best chance of producing a fat score. Lackey (4.51 xFIP) is having arguably the worst season of his nine-year career in the bigs; his strikeouts (6.05 per nine IP) are down, his walks (3.24 per nine IP) are up, and he’s having a particularly tough time against lefties, allowing a 4.82 xFIP.
The Sox are 14-12 behind Lackey for a deficit of 1.35 units and an OVER record of 14-9-3. Shields (3.71 xFIP) has Tampa even further in the hole at 13-13 and down 5.03 units, but there’s been a big turnaround of late with the Rays winning five of seven – call it regression to the mean.