MLB Spring Training a month away

The itch started a couple of weeks back actually.  It progressed from a small rash on my brain to an irritation in my gut to a full-fledged inflammation throughout my entire body.

When I went to my doctor he told me, "Pitchers and catchers don't report for another month.  Until then, take two martinis while watching college basketball and call me in April if it hasn't gone away."

Yeah, baseball.  I'm jonesing for the game.  Super Bowl XYZ90201 or whatever number it is can't get here soon enough.  That game is like a second New Year's Eve to me because I know it will be a new year, a new baseball season, when I wake up the next morning.

College hoops is just heating up while NFL season is reaching its climax.  The NBA and NHL guys play on until like August, right?  And then football starts all over again.  Still, it's never a wrong time for baseball and that means a pre-preseason preview.

Futures are going to take forever to get here.  I do love to play some World Series and pennant winners, but the win totals that I really like to indulge are a good month away offshore, maybe a little sooner than that in Vegas.  The numbers I'm going to work off for this series of quick team previews come from Bodog and are odds to win the 2010 World Series.

Note that I've divvied the group up into three easy-to-follow groups: Teams listed 18/1 or better right now, teams listed 20/1 to 50/1 presently, and the thanks for playing, Don Pardo tell them about our parting gifts group in the 60/1 to 125/1 range.

I'll be looking at a team from each group for nine articles, with the 10th and final consisting of three of the top-tier teams. My editorial privilege allows me to make sure my beloved Houston Astros will be included in this first writing.  By the time I finish the series you will have forgotten everything I said about the Astros, and for good reason.

New York Mets  15/1
2009 record/finish: 70-92, 4th in NL East
Departing: 1B Carlos Delgado, LF Gary Sheffield, RHP J.J. Putz
Arriving: OF Jason Bay, RHP Kelvim Escobar
2010 outlook: I will be performing my annual jinx on the New York Mets soon, but am waiting on some longer odds before I do place a futures bet on the bunch from Queens. Must be a bunch of idiots like me ready to plunk down money to list them at the present number.

GM Omar Minaya thought the team was just a bullpen away from October baseball, and he was wrong.  Francisco Rodriguez had a rather bloated ERA in 2009 and Putz was never healthy.  Speaking of healthy, a lot of the team went down on the injured list that led to the 70-win season last year.

But expecting them all to bounce back and everything to fall into place for a 90-win season, which is the minimum for a team I'd give you 15/1 on, that's stretching it.  Bringing in Bay is good, re-signing Jeff Francoeur could be good, getting a healthy Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana and John Maine back for 2010 all have to happen for this team to be a true force into the postseason.

Free MLB Pick: 85 wins, 3rd in the NL East

Tampa Bay Rays  27/1
2009 record/finish: 84-78, 3rd in AL East
Departing: None, yet.
Arriving: RHP Rafael Soriano
2010 outlook: This is roughly the same team that ended the season last year in St. Pete with the addition of Soriano to presumably close.  The Rays had already dealt Scott Kazmir away before the end of the season to the Angels, and they are still reportedly trying to unload Pat Burrell on some unsuspecting GM while talking to Jim Thome's agent about coming aboard.

They should continue to try and deal Burrell, leave Thome alone and find a bargain fourth outfielder, if you ask me.  Neither Andrew Friedman nor Gerry Hunsicker have asked me, by the way.

It was silly to think Tampa Bay could repeat its magic from 2008.  Baseball's two biggest obstacles are in the Rays' way in the form of the Yankees and Red Sox, so it will pretty much take a magical season to unseat at least one again.  If Soriano can finally shore up the closer's role, if David Price can take the next step into stardom and if Carlos Peña can rebound from his performance of Rob Deer, the magic can return.

Free MLB Pick: 87 wins, 3rd in AL East

Houston Astros  75/1 
2009 record/finish: 74-88, 5th in NL Central
Departing: SS Miguel Tejada, RHP Jose Valverde, RHP LaTroy Hawkins
Arriving: 3B Pedro Feliz, RHP Brett Myers, RHP Brandon Lyon, RHP Matt Lindstrom
2010 outlook: The Astros followed up their surprising 86-win 2008 season with a putrid 74 wins last year, and my guess is we will see 72-75 wins this year. If everything fell into place, yes, they could be a wild card contender.  But they have at least two teams in the Cardinals and Cubs to beat out in the division; four if you include the Reds and Brewers who, on paper at least, stack up better than Houston.

The bullpen has been rebuilt with Lindstrom and Lyon the backend guys.  Myers comes on to add to what could be a decent rotation headed by Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez.  The scary part is the pitching staff actually appears deeper than the other eight positions on the field.

Maybe Feliz fools me and Minute Maid is just the park for him.  Maybe J.R. Towles comes on as a catcher with Tommy Manzella at short.  And maybe, just maybe, the lack of tested outfield depth at this point won't ever be a problem with Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn all staying healthy and putting for the fantastic seasons.

The best news here really is I don't see them any worse off than they were entering '09, plus they get some draft picks for Valvomit, er, Valverde signing with the Tigers.

Free MLB Pick: 72 wins, 5th in NL Central