There are hundreds of sports
statistics available and it’s important to sift through data to find valuable
edges. When it comes to baseball handicapping, it’s essential to analyze
lefty-righty breakdowns.
One out of every five people is
left-handed, yet there is a disproportionately high number of left-handed
batting champions in baseball history. Some handicappers theorize that lefties have an edge
in getting to first base, for when they swing, their body is already moving
towards first, while righty batters swing towards third base and then have to
change direction and run to first when a ball is put in play. Regardless, the
fact is that a high percentage of batting champions have been left-handed (Ty
Cobb, Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Rod Carew, George
Brett, Don Mattingly, Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn, Ichiro Suzuki).
When baseball betting, it is essential to examine how players
and teams hit against lefty and righty pitchers. Some teams are loaded with
right-handed hitters and may have an edge against lefty hurlers. Or, some teams
have a few key hitters who happen to perform poorly against lefties.
Boston’s
Bad April
The Red Sox, for instance, got off to
a terrible start in April, particularly struggling against lefty pitchers.
During their 5-11 start the Sox lost to southpaws Brett Anderson, Brett Cecil,
Darren Oliver, Matt Harrison and David Price, and picked up back-to-back losses
against Cleveland lefty reliever Rafael Perez. Boston has a talented lineup
that is coming around now, but they are also loaded with lefty batters. Don’t
be surprised if opposing managers continue to throw lefty starters and
relievers at Boston.
The Tampa Bay Rays used to be
susceptible to lefties, but not so this season, which has been a big plus on
the road, where they have the best record in baseball. Tampa Bay is getting
great production from newcomer Johnny Damon, a lefty who is hitting lefties and
righties equally, plus B.J. Upton has a .341 on-base percentage against
southpaws. Remember this team lost a pair of lefty bats over the winter to free
agency in Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena. Crawford has moved on to Boston and
notice he’s hitting .252 against righties, but a miserable .121 against
lefties.
One of the more extreme came a few
years ago when the Padres struggled against lefties significantly. Four of the
Padre starters at the time were lefty sluggers in RF Brian Giles, 1B Ryan
Klesko, CF Dave Roberts and 3B Sean Burroughs. Burroughs hit .270 against
righty pitchers, but .172 against lefties.
San Diego had a winning record against righties that season, but a
losing one against lefty pitchers.
Bronx
Bombers in Yankee Stadium
This is why many times the opposing
lineup can be the reason managers prefer to send a southpaw to the mound. Other
times it can be the configurations of the ballpark. For decades, the New York
Yankees loaded their lineups with left-handed hitters to take advantage of
Yankee Stadium. The old Yankee stadium was the ‘House that Ruth Built’ and was
aptly named, built in 1923 when Ruth was in his prime. It had a short porch in
right field, which made hitting home runs much easier for left-handed batters.
Ruth and Gehrig were lefty sluggers, a trend that continued right up until the
new Yankee Stadium came in last season.
The new Yankee Stadium, which opened
in 2009, is still a great hitter’s park for lefties, even though it’s smaller
than the older park and great for righty sluggers, as well. Of course, for some hitters this doesn’t
matter. Seattle’s Ichiro Suzuki is a left-handed batter but it doesn’t matter
who he faces. Last season Suzuki hit .318 against righty pitchers and .309
against southpaws and this season he’s hitting better against lefties (.333)
than righties. He has such extraordinary talent that it really hasn’t mattered
whether you throw a lefty or righty at him. In 2004, the year he had a record
262 hits, he hit .359 against righties and .404 versus southpaws!
Shifty
Southpaws
This is why it’s important to know
lefty/righty dynamics, and whether a player is weaker or stronger against
certain pitchers. David Ortiz of Boston has always struggled against southpaws
and in 2011, despite a very strong overall start, notice he has a .447 slugging
percentage against lefties, .558 against righties.
When the Red Sox lost to lefty David
Price, they were a minus-175 favorite in the MLB odds, and when they lost to lefty Matt
Harrison they were a -135 road favorite. In fact, the Rangers are 6-1 in their
last seven home games versus a left-handed starter, while the Twins are 2-9 in
their last 11 home games vs. a lefty starter. This is where you can find
overvalued road teams that can struggle against lefties, making a home dog that
much more inviting. After all, baseball dogs pay more and the whole idea is to
turn a profit over the long haul.
So don’t leave over/unders and ATS
wins and losses up to lady luck. Make sure you dig deep with your handicapping
research. In baseball, lefty/righty dynamics offer edges and cashing at the
betting window is all about identifying and utilizing those edges.