“It ain’t over till it’s over.” Yes, Yogi, we know. Yogi Berra’s old adage is particularly true when it comes to wagering on baseball. There are nine innings and 27 outs in a regulation game.
The long haul of the regular season, 162 games, requires patience from a handicapping perspective. Don’t get overly excited when you win big, just as you shouldn’t get too down about a tough loss.
This weekend we saw the favored Reds pound the Dodgers at home, leading 7-2 in the seventh inning. They have one of the top offenses in baseball and a young ace on the hill in Johnny Cueto, who was pulled after just 88 pitches in the top of the eighth with that 7-2 lead. A nice winning ticket on the Reds who opened the betting odds at -125? Maybe I should have played the run line!
Before you could say, “Bullpen by committee” the Dodgers exploded and the Cincy bullpen imploded. Matt Kemp hit a tying grand slam in the eighth inning for his second homer of the game, and Jamey Carroll singled in the go-ahead run in the 11th, leading the Dodgers to an 11-8 win as +105 MLB odds underdogs. The Dodgers pulled off their biggest comeback of the season and improved to 5-0 in extra innings.
If you follow baseball, you know this is nothing new. I recall a game where the Yankees blitzed the Mariners in the first inning with a 5-0 lead. The final score: Mariners, 15-11! It’s a game of nine innings, not just one big inning. Those same Florida Marlins were on the giving and receiving end of some shocking games that same season. They needed back-to-back 8th innings home runs to turn a 4-3 deficit into a 5-4 win. One week later they led 3-2 in the ninth inning at Washington with two outs, before losing on grand slam moments later, 7-3.
Baseball betting: Be calm, cool, collected
The point in each example is that you can’t celebrate too soon. Successful sports handicapping requires a calm demeanor and loads of patience. Crazy things are going to happen from time to time, especially over the course of a 162-game season. You’re going to win some games you should have lost, and lose a few you should have won. The important thing to remember is not to wager on baseball like a roller coaster, enthusiastic over an exciting win one minute, and in total despair an hour later when things don’t go your way. Because if you get too down, it can negatively influence your thinking of tomorrow’s games.
In that 7-3 Marlins loss at Washington, that was a roller coaster ride for sports bettors because not only did the minus-140 Marlins lose in shocking fashion, but the total on the game was 9. One out from a 3-2 win and a winning ticket for anyone who bet the under, the Marlins give up a grand salami for a loss AND the game ends up over the total. What a roller coaster for folks who had the side and total.
These things will happen during a baseball season. It’s important that the bettor remain calm, whether they win or lose games like this. Don’t get so shaken that it affects your thinking: “I must have analyzed that game wrong. What a dummy! I need to alter the way I handicap.” No. Relax. You should swallow the bitter losses the same way you handle a lucky win, with a calm demeanor.
There was another shocker this weekend as the punchless offense of the Oakland A’s visited Fenway Park. Boston, a minus-170 favorite, led 8-4 in the ninth…then the A’s roared back, with the help of some strange umpiring, to tie the game at 8-8. Boston ended up winning in 14 innings, 9-8, but I know someone who had the run-line and was furious.
Don’t let bad beats beat you up
This is why in baseball you must be careful, cautious and calculating, especially with you bankroll. One crazy bounce to an infielder can cause an error and change a game around, or one bad outing by a normally reliable relief pitcher can change everything. Rain can cause a starting pitcher to exit early, which can mess up your handicapping plans, along with any number of other factors you might not have expected (and ace pitcher having a bad night, an umpire squeezing the strike zone, injuries).
But don’t get too down after a bad beat. I recall another game at Fenway Park when the Orioles had a 5-0 lead in the ninth-inning and turned it into a 6-5 loss. With the bases loaded and two outs in the ninth, Chris Ray induced a ground ball from the Boston batter, but the closer got a late start in covering first base and couldn't handle the throw from the first baseman. The ball hit off his glove and bounced away as the tying and winning runs scored. A shocker, of course, but baseball bettors need to understand that losses like that are going to happen on occasion. It takes time, but learn to accept and roll with those punches to the stomach, as over the long haul lucky wins and unlucky losses will even out. The successful bettor takes everything with a grain of salt and remains on an analytical, even keel.