Manny Ramirez swung the NL West in the Dodgers' favor last year after a trade from Boston. And 84 wins might do it again this year in a division that has seen several stars go elsewhere this winter.
Well here we are at the end of this little exercise as we look at our sixth and final division from last season. On the whole, the sim projections did pretty well, very well with the exception of the Padres who accounted for -23 of the -45 score the entire NL West put up.
Just one season after the division included the top two W-L records in the National League in 2007, the NL West appeared for a while last summer to be heading for a .500 team or worse taking honors. Arizona and Colorado each won 90 games in ’07 to take the division title and Wild Card slot respectively in the Senior Circuit, with San Diego just a win behind them and out of the postseason with 89 triumphs, the same total that Philadelphia had in capturing the NL East that season.
As late as Aug 13 last season, however, the NL West lead was shared by the Dodgers and Diamondbacks who both sat just two games over break-even at 61-59. The Padres were in last on that day, sporting a sickly .383 win mark (46-74), and still not out of the hunt.
Some of the biggest noise in the division this winter has been made by the Giants who beat my projections by about four wins last season to finish 18 below .500 in fourth place. San Francisco has inked pitchers Randy Johnson, Bobby Howry and Jeremy Affeldt, plus shortstop Edgar Renteria for 2009 and beyond, and in a division that needed just 84 wins to take home the big banana last year, the Giants could be on their way up the ranks. And there are still several big name free agents, many of whom could find a home out west before we get to Opening Day. Out of 216 free agents that filed last November and December, 89 still are on the market according to a report filed by Barry M. Bloom at MLB.com.
"This is unheard of, very unusual," Padres GM Kevin Towers was quoted in the piece. "I can't believe when I look at the list how many big-name guys are still out there. It's probably better to be an arbitration-eligible player this year rather than a free agent. Arbitration isn't driven by the economy. It's driven by past contracts."
NL WEST
(Team, Avg Sim Wins / Actual Wins)
Los Angeles (84.8 / 84.0)
When the Dodgers snagged Manny Ramirez from the BoSox on July 31 last summer, LA was 54-54 in the NL West. Manny was a huge part in the club eventually winning the division as the flaky slugger hit .396 with 17 HR and 53 RBI in 53 games down the stretch for the Dodgers. Imagine where they would’ve been without him. Better yet, it’s easy to imagine they wouldn’t have been playing on in October.
It’s looking less and less likely that Los Angeles will be bringing the free agent back this time as owner Frank McCourt is going to tighten GM Ned Colletti’s purse strings. The Dodgers will also be without Jeff Kent and Greg Maddux from their season-ending roster after both future Hall of Famers retired. Brad Penny, though his injury kept him from helping at all in ’08, and closer Takashi Saito both went east to Boston via free agency. Jonathan Broxton, part of a solid group of relievers last season, now takes over at closer. News on Jason Schmidt remains unclear as to exactly when he will be back, and the club is reportedly looking at both Randy Wolf and Braden Looper to add to their rotation.
On offense, where the Dodgers ranked 13th in the NL in scoring (700), 13th in homers and 13th in most times heading back to the dugout after Strike 3, Los Angeles will have to depend on some younger players who started to come into fold last year. James Loney, Matt Kemp and Russell J. Martin are a pretty good trio, and a full season from a healthy Rafael Furcal could go a long way. There is going to be a chance on the infield with Casey Blake assuming third base and Blake DeWitt moving to second where he will likely platoon with Mark Loretta.
Arizona (89.0 / 82.0)
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Spinning a Webb in the desert
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Several posters, including BigBoyDan, tried to warn me about the Diamondbacks after their 2007 campaign. I didn’t listen, and being the stubborn, crotchety old fool that I am, I still don’t think their ’07 season was a big smoke and mirrors job. Well, at least not a huge smoke and mirrors job. They started the year strong as they finished April 20-8 and holding a 5½-game lead in the division, looking as if they would just run away and hide from the rest.
Yeah, yeah, I know all about your Pythagorean stuff and how the D-Backs beat the odds on that in 2007. But that formula simply looks at some bottom line totals and doesn’t take into account specifics for how the numbers got there. Not enough time to argue that now, however. The one stat I do look at that sticks out for last year is the 1,287 times Diamondbacks hitter suffered a K on the scorecard. Those strikeout rates, especially the ones belonging to Mark Reynolds, Chris Young and Justin Upton have to change. And the completely wasted season for Eric Byrnes also hurt in ’08, enough that he will apparently be an $11 million reserve this time around.
The starting staff, which was pretty darn good last year, should be better than average this time. Having Brandon Webb and Dan Haren should see to that, and the club recently added Jon Garland to give them some depth on the back end, plus expected development of Max Scherzer. The bullpen, however, could be a completely different story this time. Brandon Lyon and Juan Cruz are both gone, and Chad Qualls, though off a fine season, is now going to have to buck up and close. If Jon Rauch can’t get back to form setting him up, it could get ugly in the desert.
Colorado (84.6 / 74.0)
The Rockies definitely had a dream season in 2007 and everyone expected them to drop back at least some in ’08. They did just that, and then some, failing to reach the .500 mark for the season in the end. Though the division remained close due to mediocrity in the W-L columns all season, Colorado was for all intents and purposes out of the race at the end of May when they stood 20-36.
A big part of their trouble was on offense, where the Rockies never seem to struggle. After finishing second in the NL in 2007 in runs (860) and first in both batting average (.280) and on-base (.354), Colorado slumped back to the pack in ’08 with over 100 fewer plate crossing (747, eighth) and nearly 20 points off in hitting with a .263 average (sixth). They did lead the NL with 141 steals, but the guy who had 68 of those, Willy Taveras, is now gone. Matt Holliday is also gone, and Todd Helton is only a shadow of his former self, injuries taking their toll in 2008.
The bullpen was ok in 2008, nothing special though Brian Fuentes, Taylor Buchholz and Jason Grilli had fine seasons. Aaron Cook and Ubaldo Jimenez were the only two starters worth mentioning on a staff that finished next-to-last in the NL with a 4.77 ERA. Can’t blame Coors Field for all of that either. Jeff Francis’ shoulder troubles have continued to bother him this winter, and that’s not a good sign. Manny Corpas took a step back in the pen but is reportedly in better shape for this campaign. Huston Street is now going to close in place of Fuentes who scooted over to the Angels. And Jason Marquis has been signed for the rotation. Get your gloves ready in the outfield bleachers on days Marquis pitches, as well as hits.
San Francisco (68.4 / 72.0)
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Zito has been Zero in San Fran
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The Giants had too many holes to fill in one offseason, especially one with hard economic times like we’re in. But they did address their bullpen that was pretty poor in 2008 and cost young heralded starters Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum a few wins each. Brian Wilson saved 41 games despite a 4.62 ERA that was bloated by three particularly bad trips to the mound. In come Bobby Howry and Jeremy Affeldt to try and bolster the relievers.
The addition of Randy Johnson behind Lincecum and Cain should help though the Big Unit is not the Big Unit of old. Who knows what San Fran will get out of Barry Zito, however.
So they addressed the pen but really haven’t done a thing about the offense that ranked 15th in the NL, and 29th in baseball, with 640 runs, and ranked dead last in the majors with just 94 home runs. This is where the addition of one of those remaining free agents that can hit for power could go a long way. The problem there is the Giants appear set in the outfield where most of those sluggers play. Aaron Rowand, Randy Winn and Fred Lewis all return, though it really wouldn’t be a problem to plug say Manny or Griffey Jr. into Lewis’ slot. Maybe Adam Dunn could be signed to play 1B in place of young Travis Ishikawa?
San Diego (86.0 / 63.0)
Things could get worse before they get better as the same Bloom article at MLB.com noted the Padres could lose as many as “half of their 15,000 season ticket” holders this season. That has San Diego cutting back on payroll and still shopping staff ace Jake Peavy.
The offense was the worst in all of the majors last year, something I didn’t expect to ever say about a club that hit over 150 homers. San Diego scored the fewest runs in baseball, crossing the plate just 637 times. Steroids or no steroids, Petco Park or Great American Ball Park, if you’re going to average less than four runs a game, you need a staff full of Jake Peavy’s to just reach 81 wins. Adrian Gonzalez had a fabulous year, driving in 119 of those runs and scoring 103 of them. And with a season, or most of a season, under their belts now, the offense could be sparked by development from Kevin Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley. Could, I say.
If Peavy is dealt, it will leave just Chris Young as the only formidable and proven arm in the rotation, and after a season with back trouble on his 6-10 frame, even Young is a question. One guy I don’t envy on this staff is Heath Bell who is going to be asked to take over the closer’s job from fan favorite and all-time great Trevor Hoffman, recently departed for Cleveland. He can certainly do the job, but the pressure will mount if he gets off to a slow start.
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