On the heels of their first World Series title in more than a quarter century, the Philadelphia Phillies go for their third straight NL East crown this year once again as underdogs to the New York Mets.
It was 51 weeks ago, Groundhog Day 2008, to be exact, that the New York Mets appeared to lock up the National League Pennant. Granted, we were still a couple of weeks from Spring Training getting underway, but their trade to land left-hander Johan Santana seemed to push them over the top and make them the team to beat in the NL.
By the time early March rolled around, the Metropolitans were listed as -220 favorites in the NL East, drawing just +275 to win the NL and +675 to go all the way. They had their staff ace in Santana, with starting pitching a real bugaboo for them the previous season, and they had a solid core of everyday players in David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran. What could go wrong?
Well, we’ll get to what went wrong for them a bit later as for the second straight year the Metropolitans came up short and watched the Philadelphia Phillies take the division. New York’s collapse was nowhere as bad as the one they suffered in 2007 when they blew a 7-game lead on Sep 12 by winning just five of their final 17 games that season. And some credit certainly has to be given to the Phillies since they did go on to capture the big prize in a soggy, rather anticlimactic World Series against the Rays.
While a lot of the talk has deservedly centered around the Mets, aka The Underachievin’s, squandering a shot at the past two division titles, not enough respect has been given to Charlie Manuel and the Phils. Philadelphia sat around +320 in mid-March to win the NL East a second straight time, with numbers of +800 to take the NL flag and +2200 to win their first World Series since 1980. Congrats to all Phillies backers that held such tickets.
Chances are good that the Phils will take a backseat on the tote board this year once again after Omar Minaya went out and addressed some of New York's pitching concerns. And that’s probably ok with Charlie Manuel once again.
NL EAST
(Team, Avg Sim Wins / Actual Wins)
Philadelphia (87.8 / 92.0)
The Phillies entered the 2008 season with just one question looming. Granted, it was a really big question, but then, it was answered in a really big way. During the offseason before the ’08 campaign, then-GM Pat Gillick went out and acquired the snake-bit Brad Lidge from Houston to be the closer in Philadelphia. Inconsistency had marred Lidge’s career after a crushing homer in the NLCS in 2005, and the hard-throwing right-hander welcomed the change of scenery.
Or should I say he reveled in the change of scenery as Lidge returned to his ‘Lights Out’ ways en route to an outstanding season at the back end of the Phils bullpen that had been their eyesore in 2007. Lidge recorded 41 saves with a 1.95 ERA, anchoring what was a solid relief corps that included Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin and J.C. Romero. That group will be back with the Phillies in ’09, and the starting rotation will still have young lefty Cole Hamels, the ageless southpaw Jamie Moyer, Brett Myers and a full season from Joe Blanton who was acquired from Oakland last July.
The offense this year will be missing Pat Burrell’s big stick, and Chase Utley is still rehabbing from hip surgery last November. But in Burrell’s place they have signed Raul Ibañez, who should give them better defense out in left and still provide a strong bat in the order.
New York (89.2 / 89.0)
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Willie paid the price for a bad pen
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I have many friends that are Mets fans, and all are pleading with me to not buy any futures on their team this year. As I’ve told them, pleading don’t feed the bulldog and besides, it’s sort of fun knowing that I can jinx a team with a little $50 wager. I consider it payback for the way they treated my beloved Astros in the ’86 NLCS.
Seriously, I can’t remember the last time I had a Mets ticket for either a season or a single game that cashed. Heck, I even found myself rooting for them the past few years just because I have always been a Willie Randolph fan. Randolph paid the ultimate price for the downfall of the New York bullpen last year, getting the pink slip in June with the club stood 34-35. In came Jerry Manuel and the club eventually got on track in July, reeling off a 10-game streak starting July 5 and finishing the month 18-8 to sit just a half-game behind the Phils when August opened. By Sep 3, the Mets held a 3-game lead on Philadelphia.
But that’s pretty much when it ended. A bullpen that lost closer Billy Wagner in early August was the primary culprit, and that led to Minaya bringing in Francisco Rodriguez through free agency before getting in on a 3-team deal to land J.J. Putz from Seattle. Even though New York inked Minaya to an extension last October, anything less than an NL East title this year could put Omar in the unemployment line.
Florida (68.4 / 84.0)
While my simulations were fairly close to projecting the Phillies and Mets win totals, as well as the Nationals, the sims came up way short of getting both the Marlins and Braves right. A fast start saw the Fish sitting on top of the division at the end of April with a 15-12 mark, and holding that same half-game lead at the end of May when they were 31-23 and the biggest surprise in the National League. From there, Fredi Gonzalez and the Marlins would play right at .500 ball and end the year in third.
Power and a decent bullpen played the biggest part of Florida exceeding expectations, along with the job Gonzalez did as manager pushing the right buttons at the right time. A big chunk of that power departed in an offseason deal that sent Mike Jacobs (32 HR, 93 RBI) to Kansas City, and closer Kevin Gregg (3.41, 29 Sv) was dealt to the Chicago Cubs for minor leaguer Jose Ceda. More power came from Jorge Cantu who bounced back from near-oblivion to swat 29 flies. So it looks like Gonzalez is going to be called on to push those buttons once again.
There is still some good young talent in Florida, including Hanley Ramirez who is one of the top young stars in the game today. Dan Uggla might be the most underrated infielder in the game, Ricky Nolasco came into his own and started to realize his potential on the mound and the club still has young lefty Andrew Miller though he’s battling knee trouble still. I’m looking for a return to fourth place in the division this time.
Atlanta (86.0 / 72.0)
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Smoltz is now in Boston
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I made some stinker predictions last year, and the Braves were one of them. When I wrote, “I believe they’ll definitely be part of at least the NL Wildcard chase this season,” I truly believed that.
The offense cooked along about as I expected. Mark Teixeira banged 20 and drove in 80 before being dealt to the Angels, Chipper Jones had a great season with a .364 average to lead the NL while hitting 22 homers, and Brian McCann had as good a year as you could hope for from a catcher. True, Jeff Francoeur pretty much stunk it up and center field was an eyesore. But the team did finish sixth in the NL in scoring with 753 runs.
The mound simply never recovered after John Smoltz’ early departure to the DL. Tim Hudson was then lost by the end of July. Mike Hampton didn’t show up until Hudson was lost, and the bullpen was a complete bust with both Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano hurt. The only solace I take in such a bad prediction is it no doubt added to manager Bobby Cox’ antacid purchases.
Washington (68.2 / 59.0)
One of the few winning futures I did cash last year as I couldn’t get my Under bet down fast enough with I saw the O/U mark set at 70½. Only one of my sims broke over that win total, and it was fairly easy to forecast 92 or more losses for this team heading into 2008. How this club ever pulled off a 7-game win streak in late-August, early-September against the liked of the Dodgers, Braves and Phillies, I’ll never know. Ok, I know how they were able to beat the Braves.
I’m a big Manny Acta fan, and hope that eventually he will be able to escape the clutches of GM Jim Bowden and Washington to land a better gig along the way. True, they could see marked improvement with the additions of pitchers Daniel Cabrera and Scott Olsen plus outfielder Josh Willingham who brings at least adds some pop to an otherwise powerless batting order. Assuming Ryan Zimmerman is healthy, there’s another plus for the offense.
No doubt they should improve enough to avoid another 100-loss campaign. But if that O/U line is at 72 or higher again, I’ll be jumping on the Under once again.
AL EAST