Play Philadelphia Phillies, fade Tampa Bay Rays after All-Star game

Complete with its share of surprises and disappointments the first half of the Major League Baseball season is in the rear view mirror. Now it’s time to focus on making even more money as America’s pastime approaches the dog days of summer.

A wise man once told me that when it comes to wagering there's no money to be made in the past.  With that in mind, here are a few players and teams that you should keep an eye on once the second-half the MLB season begins on Thursday after the MLB All-Star game.

Pitchers to fade

Jamie Shields, Tampa Bay Rays.

The warning signs are up. Shields is 0-3 in his last three starts and while his record of 8-7 isn’t indicative of how well he’s pitched, it is a sign of the offensive problems and bullpen concerns that plague TB. He’s being constantly matched up against the other team’s ace or number two starter and that won’t help either. I’m calling for a big fade on Shields. On Friday Tampa Bay will take on the Red Sox and Tampa have yet to designate a pitcher, but in MLB betting I am looking to Boston.

Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers SP. 

Kuroda is likely on his last legs in LA. As the trade deadline approaches his name continues to come up on a daily basis. He’s pitched better than expected for a lousy Dodger team (5-8, 3.07 ERA) but playing for a bankrupt team and with all the distractions caused by trade talk will eventually take its toll. On Friday the Dodgers start a three game series against the Arizona Diamonbacks.

Kevin Correia, Pittsburgh Pirates.

He’s been a huge surprise. He’s an All-Star pitcher and 11-game winner and at some point he’s going to wake up and realize he’s pitching for the Pirates. He’s gotten above average run support but I expect that to end as the Pirates start playing like, well, the Pirates.

Pitchers to play

Roy Halladay, Philadelphia.

This is a pretty obvious choice but an easy one too. Halladay is a workhorse and unlike other pitchers who tend to breakdown in the later months of the year, the ‘Doc’ gets stronger. He’s eclipsed the 200 inning plateau four straight years and already has seven complete games this year. P.S. Halladay backers enjoyed a +11 first half and depending on the chalk you should look to the 'Doc' in the betting odds through the second half of the season.

Justin Verlander, Detroit.  

Quick, name one other starting pitcher on the Tigers. It’s Verlander and everybody else. He’s 12-4 with a 2.15 ERA and tied with the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw for the MLB lead in strikeouts. The big V is the reason the Tigers are likely to win the AL Central Division.

Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta.

He’s from Curacao in the Netherlands and before you laugh, check out the number of solid players this country has started to produce. Jurrjens is 12-4 with an ERA is 1.87 and is a bona fide threat to win 20 games.

Honorable mention: Roy Oswalt the Phillies has been one of the best second-half pitchers in baseball with his ERA almost a full ERA point better in the second half and his batting average against is .23 points better with August and September historically being his best months.

Pitcher Home/Road Dichotomies at the Break

As with all sports, one of the hidden edges a handicapper possesses is a team or player’s performance as it differs home and away.  MLB is no different.  A look at a team’s home vs. away record can offer some insight into this dichotomy. 

But with starting pitchers being a major component of the MLB betting lines, there is no way the linemaker can fully reflect the home/road splits that are recorded in the current season by each starter. 

WinningSportsAdvice.com has provided us with 2 lists of pitchers whose home vs. road performance is so divergent that it must be considered a major part of the handicap when analyzing a game he starts.  All records reflect only starters who have pitched 40+ innings both home and away.

The 1st list is comprised of a group of 15 starters all of whom have a Home ERA of 3.00 or less yet a Road ERA that is 2.00 or worse than their Home ERA.  This group of starters feels most comfortable in their home surroundings, mound and fan support.

Our 2^nd group of pitchers are those whose Road ERA is 2.00 better than their Home ERA.  We refer to this as an Inverted Home/Road Dichotomy.  These are pitchers who, for whatever reason, do not feel comfortable in their home setting perhaps because they feel extra pressure or because the dimensions of the park are not suited to them.

Teams to fade

Pittsburgh Pirates.

Pirates manager Clint Hurdle is gaining support for Manager of the Year honors but I’d like to reserve making my vote until a later date. I agree with the guy who said that even Kansas City could prosper in this division where you get to play the Astros and Cubs so often. Pittsburgh has earned over +13 units this season but eventually we’ll see the market correction that the books are so very good at predicting in their baseball odds.

Cleveland Indians.

The Tribe has led the Central Division for the majority of the year and they’re still close to the top as the second-half begins. However the kids will come down to earth and I’ll be there to cash in. I’ll give them this; they’ve improved enough that we should stop calling them “The Mistake by the Lake”. Or was that one of the other Cleveland teams?

Tampa Bay.

Not much was expected from the Rays when the season started but here they are 49-41 at the break. They’ve got to climb over the Yankees and Sox to make the playoffs and they just don’t have enough offense or pitching to get the job done.

Honorable mention: Arizona, Seattle.

Teams to play

Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins and Cincinnati Reds. All four of these teams are involved in tight division races and all figure to be solid plays during the second-half of the season.