Successful
handicappers know how to adjust. You press when you’re hot, adjust wagering
strategies when situations change, and keep close tabs on team ups and downs.
Teams can catch fire, or go into hitting slumps, along with individual players.
Following on from last weeks come back article, we take the time out with the MLB All-Star game to look at one aspect of
baseball that has changed dramatically the last few years, on-base
percentage.
This is the
combination of batting average and walks by teams and players. Teams like the
Red Sox, Reds and Yankees have on-base percentage as part of their
organizational philosophy. They teach players in the minor leagues the value of
waiting for a good pitch to hit, and if your pitch isn’t there, be happy with
the walk as it helps the team.
Joey Votto of the
Reds has an on-base percentage over .400 for the third straight year and it’s
been increasing each year. He’s been a huge anchor to this impressive Cincy
offense that has been scoring runs and getting on base. The Red Sox have a
philosophy of drawing walks and wearing down opposing pitchers, forcing them to
throw 100 pitches by the sixth or even the fifth inning. Newcomer Adrian
Gonzalez has been a perfect fit, and it wasn’t just his slugging that attracted
the Sox to go after him so heavily last winter. He walked 119 and 93 times the
last two years with San Diego.
The value of drawing walks
Walks are very
valuable. Clogging the bases provides more opportunities for the guy hitting
next to drive in a run, but there’s more to it than that. Fouling off pitches
and drawing walks also can wear down the pitcher. This is particularly
important for a bettor if a strong pitcher is on the mound but the team has a
weak bullpen. Teams that wear down the opposing hurler can force him to throw
100 pitches in five innings. The same pitcher may throw 95 pitches in 8 innings
against a more free-swinging team.
Last month the
Yankees beat the Indians 11-7 and forced starter Fausto Carmona to throw 93
pitches in just four innings (3 walks). They finished the game with eight walks
as they wore down the outstanding Cleveland bullpen, scoring 5 runs with 5
walks off the relief staff. Two Cleveland relievers were forced to throw 36 and
43 pitches, which burns them out for likely the next two nights, another factor
to consider as you examine box scores each night.
The Detroit Tigers
used to have a reliable lefty in Nate Robertson, a guy who rarely walked anyone
and who pitched 208 innings for the 2006 AL Champs with a 3.84 ERA. One time
the Red Sox forced Robertson into throwing 116 pitches in just 5 innings – and
he didn’t walk a batter! It was by far the most pitches he had thrown all
season as Boston worked the count and fouled off pitches.
At the time the Sox
were tops in on-base percentage and runs scored in the AL, just like this
season. That was a key component of their 2004 and 2007 World Series
championship teams and a big reason they went after J.D. Drew for the 2007
season and Gonzalez this past offseason. Both are patient at the plate and
draws walks, which can pay dividends in so many other areas.
Pitchers: Throw strikes or suffer the consequences
On the other side of
the diamond, the ability, or lack of it, for a pitcher to throw strikes
directly ties into success. In 2011, guys like C.C. Sabathia, Felix Hernandez,
Dan Haren, Daniel Hudson, Ted Lilly, Tim Stauffer and Carlos Carasco know the
value of possessing control and getting ahead in the count, while Edison
Volquez, Doug Davis and Brandon Morrow are a little on the wild side. A hurler with
a tendency to walk batters throws more pitches in less innings, allowing the
opposition more bases-runners, which will lead to runs.
Last season Volquez
struggled with 35 walks in 62 innings while trying to get back from shoulder
surgery and he has yet to regain his 2008 form (17-6, 3.21 ERA). Like Volquez,
the Orioles used to have a hard throwing righty in Daniel Cabrera. His fastball
was outstanding and some nights he was nearly unhittable for several innings,
but he lacked control. His last impressive season opponents hit just .241 off
him, but he walked 104 batters in just 148 innings, which explained the 4.74
ERA and 9-10 record. By the way, Volquez is on an 18-6-3 run over the total in home starts,
a small park where walking batters really hurts. Pitchers who
clog the bases with free passes eventually give up runs, no matter how good
their stuff is. Examining control and walks is a good way to find angles for
sides and totals to help get a leg up on MLB odds makers. After all, it’s not who
wins the game – it’s who cashes the ticket!