After nine months of over 30 drivers racing in 35 races,
this season’s NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship comes down one race and two
drivers. Heading into Sunday’s final race of the season at Homestead, only Carl
Edwards and Tony Stewart can claim the title.
The Ford 400 from Homestead-Miami Speedway is set to get
underway at 12 p.m. (PT) and it will be broadcast nationally on ESPN. The
following is a look at a few of the favorites to win on Sunday along with their
odds as provided by Bodog.
Steward has been given the slight edge at 5/1 in the odds to win his
third career Sprint Cup title with a victory on Sunday. He can still win the
title if he finishes ahead of Edwards, but given Stewart’s aggressive style of
racing you have to believe that he will be going for the checkered flag from
the first lap of this race. He has already won four of the previous nine
‘Chase’ races this season and ended-up third in last week’s race in Phoenix.
Stewart has not won at this track since 2000, but he did finish eighth last
year and ninth in 2008. His average finishing position at Homestead is 12.4.
Edwards is the second-favorite in NASCAR betting at 11/2. He has easily been
the most consistent driver this season with 18 top five finishes, but he only
has one victory in a point race and that was back in the beginning of the
season at Las Vegas. Last week, he finished just ahead of Stewart in
second-place which was his eighth top 10 finish in nine ‘Chase’ races. He has
actually finished in the top five in his last seven races. The value in his
odds is definitely there this week considering he has won two of the last three
races at this track and has an average finishing position at Homestead of 5.7.
Kevin Harvick is currently third in the standings but a
distant 51 points behind Edwards. He comes in this week as the third-favorite
to win this race at 17/2. He had his chances over the course of this year’s
‘Chase’ to put himself in great position to win his first Sprint Cup title, but
a couple of bad finishes down the stretch put an end to that. Harvick is one of
three four-time winners this season and has 14 other top 10 finishes, so he is
always a threat to win anytime he gets behind the wheel. He has also had some
decent success at this track with an average finishing position of 7.9 and four
top-five finishes in his last five races here.
The biggest spoiler of the day could be Jimmie Johnson at
9/1. His chances of winning a sixth-straight title realistically ended a couple
of weeks ago with a poor showing at Talladega, but he would love nothing better
than to have an impact on which driver takes his place as champion by winning
Sunday’s race. Unfortunately, he has never won at Homestead in 10 career
starts, but he did finish second in last year’s race and fifth in 2009.
Johnson’s average finishing position at this track is 11.6.
Our value free pick to win on Sunday is Jeff Gordon at 11/1. He
has pretty much disappeared during the ‘Chase’ with just three top 10 finishes
in the nine races, but he is still having his best season in years with three
victories and nine other top five finishes. He is also the type of veteran
driver who has the ability to make his presence felt on Sunday by putting
himself in a position to win. Gordon has also never won a race at this track
and finished 37th in last year’s race, but prior to that he finished
fourth in both 2007 and 2008 and sixth in 2009.