This week the Sprint Cup series heads to the fabled Talladega Superspeedway for the running of the Aaron’s 499. Sunday’s race is slated to get underway at 10 a.m. (PT) and it will be broadcast nationally on FOX.
A trip to Richmond was just what Kyle Busch needed
to jump-start his season with his fourth-straight victory in the Capital City
400 this past Saturday night. Dale Earnhardt Jr. ended-up second to post his
fourth top-five finish of the year and Tony Stewart was third. Our value pick
for the week, Matt Kenseth finished 11th after starting 24th.
NASCAR Betting Preview- Aaron’s 499
The following is a look at a few of the top contenders for Sunday’s race along with this week’s value pick based on NASCAR odds provided by Bovada.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s last victory in a Sprint Cup point
race was in 2008, but the way he has been driving lately it is easy to see why
he is one of the betting odds favorite to win this week at 8/1, especially at a track that plays
to his strengths. Junior is off to his strongest start in years with seven
top-10 finishes in the first nine races with the No.88 car cracking the top
five four times. He is second in the Sprint Cup point standings with 333 points and
just five points out of first. Last year in this race, Dale Jr. finished fourth
to post his ninth career top five finish at Talladega.
The other favorite
at 8/1 is Kevin Harvick. He is
coming off a disappointing 19th-place finish at Richmond, but is
still seventh in the standings with 313 points as a result of five other top-10
finishes. The reason for such lofty odds this week for the No. 29 car is a
strong performance in this race including a victory in 2010 and fifth-place
finish in last year’s race. Harvick has just one career victory at this track,
but does have five other top-five finishes and an average finishing position of
Other than his
disastrous 42nd-place finish at Daytona, Jimmie Johnson has finished 12th or better in every
other race this season and sixth or better the last three weeks. He has been
opened at 12/1 to finally break through with a win this Sunday. The No.48 car
is currently sixth in the standings with 314 points. Johnson has also had his
share of success at Talladega with a victory in this race last year to go along
with a total of nine top-10 finishes. His average finishing position at this
track is 16.9.
Another driver at
12/1 is last week’s winner, Kyle Busch.
The No.18 car was rather quiet this season with just one previous top-five
finish in the first eight races, but that all changed with the dramatic victory
at Richmond. Busch has struggled in recent years at Talladega with just one
top-10 finish in his last six races here, but he did win this race in 2008.
Despite his current form, you have to question the value in these odds
considering he has an average finishing position of 24.9 at this track.
Denny Hamlin has already taken the checkered flag
twice this season to go along with two other top-five finishes. He is third in
the standings with 329 points, which is just nine points behind current leader
Greg Biffle. The reason that the No.11 car is our value NASCAR pick to win this
Sunday’s race at 15/1 is mostly because of Hamlin’s current form, but also
because of his five top-10 finishes in his last eight races at Talladega. He
finished 23rd in last year’s race but came back with an eighth-place
finish in the second race here in the fall.