With one month of the WNBA season in the books, it’s time for a big Sunday night Western Conference battle on NBA TV, as the Los Angeles Sparks host the Phoenix Mercury.

This game marks the return of last year’s WNBA MVP Candace Parker to the lineup of the LA Sparks after taking time off for maternity and the whole WNBA world is set to tune in and see what she’s got.  I am going with the Sparks to cover the six-point spread with a victory as they look to avenge a loss earlier this season in Phoenix.

The Mercury come into this matchup winning two of their last three games and like a lot of recent seasons, they will be bringing the league’s number one offense into the Staples Center when they face the Sparks.  Phoenix has averaged over 90 points a game on offense this season but it will be a challenge to put up these kinds of numbers against the Sparks on Sunday. 

Back on June 19, the Mercury beat the Sparks in Phoenix and all five of their starters scored in double figures en route to a nine-point victory there.  However, the defense of the Mercury has been a liability for the team, as they have given up an average of 89 points a game on defense this season and this includes an average of 94 points a game on the road. 

In the Mercury’s most recent road game, Phoenix allowed a season-high of 109 points in Minnesota losing big to the Lynx and I feel it will not get any easier for them in LA on Sunday.  It also cannot help Phoenix that their star guard Diana Taurasi was caught drunk driving on Friday night. An incident this embarrassing does not happen often in the WNBA and is sure to have the team a little unfocused coming into LA.

Despite a 7-4 record this season, the Mercury have dropped three out of four road games and will be facing a Sparks team who have gone an easy 3-0 at home, where they have blown out Detroit, Sacramento, and Seattle there by 20 points or more in each game. 

Although the Sparks have been winless on the road this season, their defense has been outstanding at home in all three games there averaging only 53 points given up per game.  Although the Mercury will clearly be the best offense that LA has faced at home, I feel the LA defense will get a big boost from the home crowd as they welcome back Candace Parker to the lineup. 

Parker will not only give emotion to the team and crowd, but also gets just what the doctor ordered for her first game back in a Mercury defense that should allow her to light up the board in her return.  Last season, Parker got a double-double in all four games against Phoenix putting up big numbers for points and rebounds. In fact, two out of the three biggest scoring efforts from Parker last season came against the Mercury with 31 and 34 points put up in those efforts.  

In addition to their league-worst defense in points allowed, the Mercury are also the league’s worst team for defensive rebounds averaging 36 per game and face a Sparks team who are averaging the second best amount of offensive rebounds in the league at 35 per game. 

And this is without Parker even being in the lineup this season yet! This means that the Sparks should get some second chance opportunities on the glass and that will get some more points on the board for them.

Although you will not find many individual players from the Sparks on any statistics leaderboards, they have been getting it done as a team thanks to veteran leadership from Tina Thompson’s presence in the lineup this season. Even with the legendary Lisa Leslie having to miss the last three games on the sidelines for LA right now, Thompson has led the team to winning two of those three games – and easily covering the spread in all three which is more important for us gamblers. 

Even though it could change once Parker is back in the lineup, Thompson has led the Sparks in points and steals per game this season.  She also had a season-high of 14 rebounds against Phoenix in last month’s battle and should contribute to out-rebounding the Mercury as LA did that night. 

The line for this game opened at Pinnacle Sports with the Sparks favored by seven points and now stands at LA laying six here. Although some may feel this is a premium to take the Sparks, I feel their solid defense at home and this being a revenge spot against the Mercury should more than make up for the six points here. 

The return of Parker to the lineup is also something difficult for anyone to put a price tag on, but you know it will make a great home team even stronger. Between Parker and Thompson matching up well against the Mercury, and Phoenix having struggled on the road in general, I have no fear laying 6 points here. The Sparks have also had more rest than the Mercury going into this game and will be ready for anything thrown at them. 

Get your reloads in at your favorite SBR rated sportsbook on Sunday night and take the LA Sparks minus the points!

Free Pick: Sparks -6 (-110)

It was just like the betting odds said it would be.

The Los Angeles Lakers opened the 2008-09 NBA season as 3-1 favorites to win the championship after getting embarrassed by the Boston Celtics in the 2008 Finals. And that’s exactly how it went down. The Lakers pulled away from the Orlando Magic in the second quarter of Sunday’s Game 5 showdown at the Amway Arena, winning the game 99-86 as 3½-point road dogs and winning the series in five games. Cha-ching.

It’s the stuff that happened in between that didn’t go as expected. The Cleveland Cavaliers opened as 15-1 favorites to take the title, but the longer the season went, the shorter their odds became. With LeBron James (27.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 6.9 assists per 36 minutes) putting together an MVP campaign, the Cavs were even money by the time they wrapped up their monster regular season at 66-16 SU and 50-32 ATS. Then they swept through the first two rounds of the playoffs at 7-0-1 ATS.

That’s where the Magic spoiled the hotly anticipated matchup between James and the man he unseated for the MVP crown, Kobe Bryant (26.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.9 assists per 36). Orlando was certainly no tomato can after finishing the regular season on top of the Southeast Division at 59-23 SU and 49-32-1 ATS. And the Magic posed a specific matchup problem for the Cavs: None of their four bigs could defend Dwight Howard.

The Lakers didn’t have that problem. Andrew Bynum wasn’t nearly as healthy and productive at the end of the season as he was at the beginning; however, he did step into Howard’s grill and provide many of the fouls that sent the big man to the free-throw line, where he shot 35-of-58 (60.3 percent) to match his usual success rate. Meanwhile, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom had the size and mobility to step up against both Howard and Rashard Lewis, who shot 8-of-24 from long range over the last three games of the series at the O-Rena. L.A. covered all three of them.

The biggest headlines for the Finals were reserved for Bryant and Lakers head coach Phil Jackson. Bryant was named the Finals MVP for the first time in his career after scoring 32.4 points, 7.4 assists and 5.6 rebounds per game during the series. As for Jackson, the Zen Master now has 10 NBA titles on his resume, breaking Red Auerbach’s record of nine. They’re all expected back for more in 2010; the Lakers are once again 3-1 favorites at the open, ahead of Cleveland at 9-2 and Orlando at 5-1.

Auerbach’s old team got lost in the shuffle this year. The Celtics defended their championship with pride in the face of adversity. Boston held onto first place in the Atlantic at 62-20 (43-39 ATS) and looked like a strong possibility to meet the Lakers yet again in the Finals. That’s when the team learned that Kevin Garnett would be out for the playoffs because his strained knee wasn’t healing well enough. The C’s escaped an epic first-round series with the Chicago Bulls before falling to the Magic in seven. The promise of getting Garnett back into the mix for 2009-10 is enough to keep the Celtics in elite company at 6-1 to regain the championship.

The common thread running through these four teams was defense. They were four of the top five teams in the league this season (the Houston Rockets were the fifth) in terms of defensive efficiency, and the under was a big money pick for both the Cavs (45-36-1) and the Magic (46-36). Howard is the 2008-09 Defensive Player of the Year, supplanting Garnett. James and Bryant join them on the NBA All-Defensive team. If defense wins championships, then these four teams deserve to be at the top of the odds list for 2010.

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Friday night in the WNBA contains a solid four game card of action and I like a couple of road underdogs here to get the money in the Seattle Storm and Atlanta Dream.

The marquee matchup in the league has the 2-1 Seattle Storm visiting the 3-0 Minnesota Lynx.  With the WNBA power rankings coming out on the league’s website yesterday, the Lynx were ranked No. 1 thanks to their undefeated record and three impressive wins showcasing some real star power on offense.  But right behind them at No. 2 are the Seattle Storm who started the season with two big wins against the Sacramento Monarchs before losing on Tuesday night to the Indiana Fever.

Like any other sport, power rankings do not always mean everything.  And anyone who has followed the WNBA power rankings over the years from the league knows that it is rare for a team to stay in the top spot for long because of how tough the schedule can be week in and week out.  But tonight’s game is certainly huge for both teams and I am going with the Seattle Storm to get the cover here.

Although the Minnesota Lynx seem like a tough team to go against right now with starting off the season so hot, I am not having fear doing it here.   In fact, last season the Lynx got off to the same surprising type of start winning their first five games – but they faded after that and I think the first loss comes tonight.  On Tuesday, I wrote right here on SBR’s front page that the Seattle Storm’s 2-0 winning streak would be snapped when visiting the Fever in Indiana for a variety of reasons and after being right about that, I feel it will be the Storm who ironically end the winning streak of the Lynx tonight.

Even with the Lynx starting out the season as the top offense in the league averaging 95 points a game, they will have to be ready for the Storm’s top defense in the league giving up an average of only 68 points a game.  Like any sport, defense wins championships – and it also gets the pointspread covered throughout a season.  I also feel that it will be hard for the Lynx to bring the same intensity they had when beating the LA Sparks at home just two nights ago.  Facing another top contending conference opponent in the Storm quickly after their matchup with LA will have its difficulty and makes it a bad spot for Minnesota here.   Seimone Augustus certain gets it done for the Lynx putting the ball in the hoop and grabbing a lot of rebounds, but like the past couple of seasons with the Lynx – sooner or later her efforts are just not enough no matter how much she lights up the board.

With the Storm coming into this one off of a loss in Indiana on Tuesday, I feel they will really bring their A-game tonight instead of how things worked out in that spot.  Despite losing in the Conseco Fieldhouse, the Storm still shot 49% from the field and they should get their share of good looks at the hoop in Minnesota tonight.  In fact, the Lynx defense will clearly be the weakest one they have faced this season and last year Sue Bird of the Storm had one of her best games in Minnesota with 22 points scored as Seattle won on the road there.  That was a victory that star center Lauren Jackson of the Storm did not play in and the Lynx will have their hands even more full with her in the lineup tonight.

Jackson scored 34 points against the Lynx when Seattle hosted Minnesota last year in an easy 25 point blowout win.  I also feel Seattle has the stronger bench of these two teams and that will make a difference down the stretch in a big conference battle like this one.  Swin Cash put in 28 minutes off the bench against the Fever on Tuesday and seems in mid-season form already.

Pinnacle Sports opened the line for this game favoring the Lynx by 2½ points and it has gone up to 4 thanks to early bettors backing the hot winning streak of Minnesota.  But remember that these early wagers are at lower maximums than what will be allowed today.  Sometimes a few individuals out there may be steaming the line one way with smaller maximum bets only to slam bigger bets the other way later on once a more favorable number is out there.  I do feel Seattle will win the game straight up tonight but getting 4 points in case it is close at the buzzer cannot hurt – especially with the 3-pointers that the Lynx could sneak in late.

My second selection for Friday night brings us to a less exciting Eastern Conference battle between the Atlanta Dream and Chicago Sky.  About the only thing any WNBA fan cares about with this game will be that it is televised on NBA TV so tune in if you decide to put some money on it as I suggest.  I am going with the Atlanta Dream to get the cover here and possibly steal a win in Chi-town.

The Sky opened their season last Saturday and gave up 102 points to Minnesota.  Even with the home court advantage tonight, it is hard favoring a team against anyone after starting out the season with poor defense and now a long layoff without a game.  Some backers of the Sky here might look at the stat sheet and think it was impressive they made 50% of their shots but it means nothing if you let the other team make 53% of theirs which is what the Lynx did.  Last season, Chicago won both of their home matchups against the Dream but don’t let that fool you either – Atlanta has some solid changes in their lineup this season.

Leading the way for Atlanta has been Chamique Holdsclaw and it’s been quite a story seeing her back in the WNBA this year.  She played for 46 minutes in the Dream’s opening game of the season last Saturday and put in 23 points as Atlanta beat the Indiana Fever in double overtime.  Even with it being such a grueling game, the Dream faced a surprisingly tough Washington Mystics team the next day and held their own only losing by 6 points.  Michelle Snow has also joined the Dream this season and Atlanta’s Erika Desouza is currently the WNBA’s second biggest rebounder averaging 11.5 of them in each game behind only Ruth Riley.  Sancho Lyttle and Michelle Snow are new additions to the Dream this season thanks to the Comets folding and Lyttle is the only WNBA player right now in the Top 5 for both steals and blocks per game.

This game opened as a Pick ’Em at Pinnacle and for whatever reason the early steam has strongly backed the 0-1 Chicago Sky moving this line up to 5 points quickly.  I cannot imagine anyone lined up around a corner wanting to lay any points with a team like the Sky right now when it is clear Atlanta has brought more to the table so far this season with their re-vamped lineup.  Both teams realize that every game will be critical in battling for playoff spots in the Eastern Conference and each certainly see it as a win-able game against the other.  But for reasons I have mentioned above, I think Atlanta has the right mix of new talent to get it done this season and should not be this big of an underdog in Chicago.

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In a crucial Game 4, all eyes are on Kobe Bryant to see whether or not he will be able to rise up and try to put the Orlando Maic on the brink of elimination. Will Orlando be able to hold him under 32 points?

Kobe Bryant is a man on a mission. He’s out to cement his legacy as one of the greatest players of all time, and prove to the world that he can win a championship without the help of Shaquille O’Neal. All that stands in his way now are two more wins, and they will have to come at the expense of the Orlando Magic.

A younger Bryant would have likely been looking to pad his stats and take the game over by himself en route to earning his championship ring. But a wiser, game tested Kobe Bryant is likely less interested in his personal stat line and more interested in just picking up the W and getting his team one step closer to a championship.

So how many points will Kobe end up with? Will this be one of those games that he single handedly takes over and scores at will in, or will he be spreading the ball around to his teammates to keep Orlando guessing at the expense of his own scoring line? I’d argue that he’ll take whatever Orlando gives him.

Betting props on Kobe Bryant have the over/under set at 31.5 points for Kobe Bryant tonight. Value seems to be apparent on the under when you take a close look at the numbers. Bryant averaged 26.8 points per game on the season, and is also facing a better than average defense in the Orlando Magic, which would suggest that points will be even harder to come by. That being said, it can be argued that the playoffs are a different beast altogether as adrenaline rises and the team’s key players are called upon more. So far in the playoffs, Bryant has averaged 30.1 points per game; still under the set total.

Over bettors will point out that Bryant has gone over 31.5 points in 11 of the 21 games he has played in so far, including a 40 point effort in Game 1 against Orlando and coming only one point short in Game 3 while shooting an uncharacteristically bad 50% at the line.

Considering the public’s adoration of Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers, it makes sense that the total is probably set a half point or so higher than actual expectation just to temper the action that will come in on the over. Looking at Kobe Bryant’s complete body of work from the regular season and what he has done so far in the playoffs, it looks as though there is some mathematical edge to taking the under on this prop tonight.

The Pick: Kobe Bryant Under 31.5 Points

For the first quarter and a half, the Orlando Magic looked to be un-phased by the bright lights of the NBA Finals vs. the Los Angeles Lakers, but in the end their inexperience bit them on the backside.

After being such a great second half team in the postseason Orlando flopped in the second half putting up just 32 points. Magic center Dwight Howard had a disappointing night scoring just 12 points with 10 of those coming from the foul-line. Howard managed just one-of-six from the field, but posted his usual double-double adding 15 rebounds to his effort.

Orlando has never won an NBA Finals game straight up, going 0-5 in their history. Tonight the Magic will look to build on a 5-6 ATS mark on the road in the postseason.

The Lakers sent a bold statement to the Magic and all the critics that have them as heavy favorites in this series, scoring over 100-points for a seventh straight game. LA has been up and down the entire playoffs, but seems to have finally found its grove at the right time.

Lakers guard Kobe Bryant put up 40 points for the third time in his last seven contests in Game 1, schooling the young Magic with his sweet jump-shot. Kobe had a near triple-double on Thursday adding eight rebounds and eight assists while blocking two shots defensively. The Lakers are 5-5 ATS on their home floor in the 2009 NBA playoffs and they hope to build on that to take a 2-0 series lead tonight.

Just when folks begin to doubt the Magic, they seem to respond with a loud vengeance and have lost consecutive contests just once in these playoffs against the Boston Celtics. The Magic are 6-1 SU after a loss this postseason which is a stat that leads me to believe they will have a great bounce-back performance in Game 2.

Look for the Magic to find new ways to defend Bryant while Howard has another 20/20 performance to tie the series heading to Orlando.

Free Pick: Magic +6½ (-110)

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The Cavaliers faced elimination for the first time in the 2009 NBA Playoffs in Game 5, but put their fishing poles on hold by defeating the Magic. Cleveland finally found a way to beat Orlando by closing out on their three-point shooters defensively; while getting its role players going offensively.

Cavs forward LeBron James scored 37 points to mark the second time he has failed to reach 40 in this series; incidentally, Cleveland won both of those contests. If the Cavaliers are to win in Orlando tonight they will need another solid performance from the supporting cast and a bench that scored 15 points in Game 5. The Cavs' cover on Thursday was their first against the Magic in the last 10 meetings.

The Magic have the Cavaliers right where I predicted before this series began and took some heat for being a 'homer.' This game is a must-win for Orlando to reach the NBA Finals or they will be in deep trouble if there is a Game 7 in Cleveland.

Magic forward Rashard Lewis powered his team to a victory at home in Game 4 and turned in another solid performance on Thursday putting up 15 points with eight rebounds. Lewis has made every crucial shot of this series for Orlando and will be a big key to its success tonight in closing out Cleveland. The Magic have covered the last five spreads at home against the Cavs and are 4-1 ATS overall in this series.

My pick before the series was the Orlando Magic in six games and that hasn't changed a bit as Cleveland winning Games 2 and 5 on their home floor was part of the plan. Orlando has found a way to defeat Cleveland on its home floor for the last two seasons and I don't expect tonight to be any different. Look for the Magic to take control of this contest early and answer any charge the Cavaliers might mount late in the game.

Free Pick: Magic -2 (-110)

The Lakers are in trouble after losing home court advantage in Game 2 because the Nuggets haven't lost a home game SU dating back to February 23.

Los Angeles is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and 2-3 ATS on the road in the 2009 NBA Playoffs. Lakers superstar Kobe Bryant did all he could for his squad in Game 2, scoring 32 points to go along with five rebounds and three assists. However, LA couldn't find their best player with the game on the line as he was covered like a blanket by Carmelo Anthony.

Bryant will need a lot of help if the Lakers want to move on to the NBA Finals for a second straight season. One hope for Lakers bettors is the squad's 6-2 mark in their last eight games played on a Saturday.

The Nuggets were able to get a key defensive stop in the final moments of Game 2 and pulled off the victory with a huge jump ball win by Chauncey Billups. Entering Thursday's game the Lakers were 7-0 SU in this postseason when scoring over 100 points, but the Nuggets broke that streak and managed to outscore LA on their home floor. Anthony was again the key player for Denver scoring 34 points to go with nine rebounds and four assists. Melo was guarded by the smaller Bryant and dominated by grabbing five offensive rebounds in the contest. The Nuggets remained undefeated in the postseason ATS in Game 2 as they are now a perfect 12-0 in that category.

Denver is 29-17-1 ATS at the Pepsi Center this season and 6-1 ATS at home when following a narrow victory of 0-4 points. The Nuggets have been extremely impressive in these playoffs and I expect to see that continue in Game 3 against the desperate Lakers.

Look for the Nuggets to run out early on 'The Lake Show' with Billups and Anthony once again taking the lead in scoring. It may be close in the end, but the Nuggets will hang on for their 13th straight ATS victory.

Free Pick: Nuggets -3½

It’s time for America to fall in love again.

The Denver Nuggets have won over the hearts and minds of basketball fans. After five straight years of losing in the first round of the NBA playoffs, the Nuggets are playing the underdog role in the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Lakers. But this dog had its day during Tuesday’s series opener, holding the lead for most of the contest before the Lakers (-6½) snuck away with a 105-103 victory. Denver supporters are now 11-0 ATS in these playoffs and upbeat about their chances of making it a 12-pack when the Nuggets face the Lakers in Game 2 on Thursday night (9:00 p.m. Eastern, ESPN).

The betting odds have shifted following Denver’s performance in Game 1, but the Lakers remain 5½-point favorites (some books had Lakers -5 at press time) with a total of 210.5. Linesmakers will be pleased to see that the betting reports have the public evenly split on the pointspread; the Nuggets were drawing nearly 75 percent of the action on the moneyline at +200.

In this correspondent’s humble opinion, Denver’s near miss in the opener should embolden people to go for the larger payday – although many sharps will find even the moneyline a bit too exotic for their blood, and they’ll remind me that the Nuggets only paid off against the spread in the opener. Fair enough. But at +200, Denver would only have to win more than a third of the time in this situation to be profitable.

The Nuggets were definitely the better team for more than just a third of Game 1. And the throng of reporters outside their dressing room discovered a team sending “the right messages” after their defeat, talking about taking it one game at a time and so on. If you’re a Denver supporter, that’s what you want to hear.

For those who prefer the Lakers, there’s coach Phil Jackson’s frank admission: “I think they outplayed us and we won the game.”

There were a couple of apparently minor injuries to the Nuggets in the opener. J.R. Smith suffered a sprained right knee at the very end of the game, but has proclaimed himself fit for Game 2. Kenyon Martin is also expected to play despite breaking his left ring finger. Denver obviously cannot afford to lose either man in such a tight series, especially Smith at the shooting guard position, where Kobe Bryant already poses a serious enough threat as it is.

If Denver covering the spread in Game 1 was part of the script, then so was the under cashing in on the total of 214 points. The under is now 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between the Lakers and Nuggets. There are more than enough under trends for Thursday’s matchup to justify sticking with what’s been working. Here are just a few:

• 25-9 in L.A.’s last 34 as a favorite
• 6-1 in L.A.’s last seven against winning teams
• 12-4 in Denver’s last 16 as an underdog
• 7-1 in Denver’s last eight against winning teams
• 10-4 in the last 14 Nuggets-Lakers games in Los Angeles

The total for Game 2 has dropped 3½ points, and the betting public is hungry as usual for the Over with nearly 70 percent of the action looking for a high score. Denver will probably manage a little better from the foul line after shooting just 23-of-35 (65.7 percent) in the opener, well below the team average of 76.0 percent. For the Lakers, Andrew Bynum was in foul trouble and only scored six points in 16 minutes, but at this point it’s hard to predict what Bynum will deliver from one night to the next. What we do know is there were 109 points scored in the first half on Tuesday and 99 in the second as both teams made effective adjustments on defense. The stuff that worked will be used again on Thursday.

Get ready for the NBA version of the “Big East” as the Cavs and Magic battle in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Cleveland is favored by 8½ and while that number looks intriguing for an Orlando play, I say the money to be made on tonight’s game is to play the Under.

Two of the three regular season meetings stayed below the number and the one game that topped the total occurred on a very rare off day for the Cavaliers' league-best defense. The Cavs gave up 116 points to the Magic and allowed them to shoot 54%.

Outside of that anomaly the games have predictably stayed on the low side. In fact the slew of low scoring games dates back to the ’07-’08 season in which four of the five series meetings finished below the number.

This should be a great series and I think much closer than the so called “pundits” have projected. In the last five meetings between the Magic and Cavavaliers, Orlando is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS. Exhibit A is Cleveland's impressive 39-2 home court record this year. But the veteran sports bettor will raise you Orlando’s 27 road victories.

Based strictly on this postseason, Cleveland looks like an unstoppable juggernaut posting an 8-0 SU record and 7-0-1 vs the spread. They’ve won all eight games by double-digits. But Orlando is the one team that can slow down Cleveland’s run. Orlando was 3-0 ATS against Cleveland this season even with Lebron James averaging 30 ppg.

My money is on a low-scoring Game 1 and a close win for the Cavs. This series won’t be a cake walk for either team, especially Cleveland. My series prediction for what it’s worth: Orlando Magic in 6.

Free Pick: Magic-Cavaliers Under 184½ (-110)

We knew this was going to happen once the Kevin Garnett story broke.

The now-former NBA champion Boston Celtics were in grave danger of getting taken down a peg minus the Big Ticket. The Chicago Bulls almost pulled it off, and then the Orlando Magic finished the job in seven games to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. As a result, we get a matchup between the two remaining elite teams in the East, not to mention the league’s top two breadwinners during the regular season.

Cleveland (regular season): 66-16 SU, 50-32 ATS, Under 45-36-1
Cleveland (playoffs): 8-0 SU, 7-0-1 ATS, Under 6-2

Orlando (regular season): 59-23 SU, 49-32-1 ATS, Under 46-36
Orlando (playoffs): 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS, Under 9-4

Head-to-head: Orlando 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS, Under 2-1

The Cavaliers are the top story in the NBA this year, a public darling with LeBron James (31.7 PER) providing megawatt star power, and yet the Cavs have maintained their cash flow into the postseason. The Detroit Pistons were no match for them. The Atlanta Hawks were worse. Can the Cavs maintain this level of play against a more challenging opponent?

The season series results aren’t in their favor. But as has been the case with nearly every series in these playoffs, these scores have to be put into context.

• Jan. 29, 2009: Cleveland 88, Orlando 99 (Magic -5)
• Mar. 17, 2009: Orlando 93, Cleveland 97 (Magic +6½)
• Apr. 3, 2009: Cleveland 87, Orlando 116 (Magic -3½)

The first game in question featured Jameer Nelson (20.6 PER) at point guard for the Magic. Although Rafer Alston (15.6 PER) has been a competent replacement, Nelson was an All-Star this year and his offense has been missed. Ben Wallace (12.2 PER) wasn’t with Cleveland for the other two games; Big Ben’s defense still makes him a quality asset with a plus-3.1 Roland Rating, just ahead of Mo Williams (17.2 PER) at plus-3.0.

Williams was an All-Star himself this year (albeit a dubious selection) and one of the reasons behind Cleveland’s ongoing success at the pay window. Over the past two seasons, GM Danny Ferry has surrounded James with the kind of players he needs to win a championship. The sportswriters have already voiced their approval by anointing King James as their Most Valuable Player. Signing Williams at $8.5 million per year was one of Ferry’s most important moves; he was even able to get Joe Smith (14.8 PER) off the scrap heap for a second straight playoff run.

Smith and Wallace join Zydrunas Ilgauskas (18.0 PER) and Anderson Varejao (14.6 PER) to give Cleveland four competent big men to send after Dwight Howard (25.4 PER). A team with the ability to frustrate Howard can reduce the Magic to a one-dimensional perimeter threat. Philadelphia and Boston have both gotten into Howard’s grill during these playoffs, and the Magic have on occasion come up dry from long range. Frontline depth is doubly important in this series because the Magic have something of a secret weapon in Marcin Gortat (17.1 PER), who is showcasing himself with some very good defensive work off the Orlando bench.

These are strong conditions on the ground for an under. Howard is the new Defensive Player of the Year, matched up against one of the slowest teams in the league (85.4 possessions per game in the playoffs) as guided by the new Coach of the Year, the highly defensive-minded Mike Brown. The trends are all leaning under: 22-8 in Orlando’s last 30 games, 14-5-1 in Cleveland’s last 20 at The Q, and 4-1 in their last five matchups against one another.

The opening betting odds for Wednesday’s Magic-Cavaliers opener had the Cavs laying nine points with a total of 187. That’s the same total as their meeting in April. Charles Barkley and the gang at TNT have the coverage for Game 1 starting at 8:30 p.m. Eastern.

As tough as their second round series against Houston was, many of the Lakers (we think) took a crash course in “Playoffs 101.” From Phil Jackson to Kobe Jackson to Shannon Brown, the Lakers were humbled by Houston. Gone is there arrogance and where there was a hole, now there’s a heart.

If their Game 7 performance against the Rockets was any indication, the Lakers learned several valuable lessons leading up to the trendy favorite to win the West, the Denver Nuggets. Per usual there are two schools of thought on how Game 1 will turn out and why.

The Denver congregation will point to its easy series victories over the Hornets and Mavs. They’ll also go on about Carmelo Anthony and his coming out party in these playoffs. You’ll hear how J.R. Smith is going to be a three-point machine and how Nene Hilario, Kenyon Martin and the Birdman will have their way with the Lakers down low.

Let me say: Wrong on all accounts?  Denver advanced at the expense of a dysfunctional Hornets team that phoned in the series. Then they took care of an undermanned Mavericks team had one guy show up every night.

During the regular season the Lakers were 3-1 against the Nuggets. The only loss came in the second game of a back-to-back.

The Nuggets say they’ll turn it up defensively against the Lakers. Does that mean the ‘Melo will suddenly play D for the first time in his NBA career or that Chris Anderson can handle Andrew Bynum down low? No and No.

Then there’s that annoying little thing about George Karl who hasn’t won in LA in five years. And least I forget, Denver is 1-10 at Staples Center over the past two seasons, including a four-game sweep in last year's playoffs.

Here are some other numbers to chew on. Kobe averaged over 30 points per game in the four meetings. Anthony averaged 14 ppg. Pau Gasol is averaging nearly 10 rebounds per game as compared to Nene’s 6 rpg.

In their last meeting of the year on April 9, the Lakers won and covered 116-104. Kobe had 33 points, Gasol 27 and Andrew Bynum netted 16 points. For Denver, Anthony had 23 and Chauncey Billups scored 27. That game should give us a truer read on what is going to take place in this series.

I like the Lakers huge in tonight’s game. It appears Los Angeles has turned a lot of people off with their less than stellar play against Houston and I’m hoping more of those annoyed Lakers fans will continue to throw their money behind Denver.

This will be the best home price we’ll see on LA this series, I guarantee you.

I’m on the Lakers big tonight and for the series. This one will be over in five games with the Lakers and Cavaliers meeting the NBA finals. Just like everyone said they would months ago.

Free Pick: Lakers -6 (-110)

Well, we predicted that the Denver Nuggets would beat the Dallas Mavericks in five games before this series started, and we look for that forecast to come to its fruition tonight in emphatic fashion.

The Nuggets are playing the best basketball in the NBA since early March, and they have been downright invincible here at home. In fact, the Nuggets are 21-5 straight up since March 10, including 15-0 SU at home where they won those games by an incredible average of +15.3 points.

This amazing home run has continued in the playoffs, where they won their three home games vs. the New Orleans Hornets by 29, 15 and 21 points respectively, and they won the first two games of this Dallas series here by 14 and 12 points. Furthermore, Game 2 was not a 12-point game in reality as the Mavericks cut into a huge deficit in garbage time.

Dallas took advantage of an aging San Antonio Spurs team without probably the best sixth man in the NBA in Manu Ginobili in the first round, but they seem outclassed in this series, especially in the games in Denver. Yes, they overcame a 14-point deficit in Game 4 to avoid getting swept, but that was at home and they will not be able to come back if they face a similar deficit tonight, which seems inevitable given the recent Denver home play.

Look for the Nuggets to wrap up this series with a big double-digit victory.

Free Pick: Nuggets -8½ (-110)

I’m locking in right now with the Denver Nuggets in Game 5 vs. the Dallas Mavericks as this spread is only going to climb.

I look at the Nuggets as a more consistent version of the Lakers. You know Denver is going to win and unlike the Lakers, they do have the ability to put teams away and they have in their previous four wins at home.

The Nuggets are on a couple of impressive runs right now. Denver is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine games overall and 5-0 ATS at home over the same stretch. Carmelo and company are also on an overall 8-1-1 ATS streak against the Mavs. Conversely Dallas is 1-5 vs. the number in its last six visits to the Mile High city.

I expect lots of scoring tonight in Game 5. Maybe we won’t see Dirk Nowitzki score 44 like he did in Game 4 or for Carmelo Anthony to hit for 41 again. But somebody or some bodies are going to “tickle the twine” plenty of times tonight.

To me, every other playoff series has been tough to cap. This one I’m seeing clearly, like the size of a beach ball almost. It’s tough to ignore the trends. Denver is playing lights out right now and they’ve been deadly at home. I’m siding with them tonight to wrap up the series and I’m also leaning heavily to a pretty good size play on the Over.

Free Pick: Nuggets -8½ (-110)

I have a graded simulator play on the Atlanta Hawks as they face the Cleveland Cavaliers in the elimination Game 4.

Sure, 15 of 18 teams have completed the sweep when up 3-0 in a series, and those same teams have been a solid 12-5-1 against the spread. Yet, trends many times reverse themselves and this is going to be one of those games demonstrating that fact. Cleveland has shot very well, but they will be a more normal shooting NBA team tonight based on my simulator projections.

The Sim shows a 71 percent probability that Atlanta will lose this game by eight or fewer points, and also that Cleveland will shoot between 43 and 47 percentt. Note that Atlanta is 11-1 ATS in home games when their opponents make between 43 and 47 percent of their shots in a game this season.

Take the Hawks to at least be competitive tonight.

Free Pick: Hawks +9½ (-110)

The King has entered the building.

LeBron James has the world at his fingertips. His Cleveland Cavaliers are on what appears to be a collision course with the Los Angeles Lakers in what would be an epic NBA Finals matchup. James has also been named the league’s MVP, supplanting Lakers superstar Kobe Bryant for the honor of being considered the best in the game today. And he does it all with a winning personality that makes Michael Jordan seem uptight and corporate in comparison.

There’s some work to do before James and the NBA get their Finals wish. The next obstacle: the Atlanta Hawks, a team that nobody should treat lightly after they took the Boston Celtics to seven games in last year’s epic first-round series. Yet the betting odds have Atlanta priced at +1350 to advance past Cleveland (-2300) into the Eastern Conference semis and +11½ to take Tuesday’s Game 1 at The Q.

Those prices haven’t dulled the public’s appetite for LeBron and the Cavaliers. In the first 24 hours of betting, they pulled in 95 percent of the action for the opener with the over getting two-thirds support on a low, low total of 179.5. Defense is very much on the menu in this series; just like Bryant and Jordan before him, James has blossomed into one of the league’s top defenders, thanks in part to the tutelage of NBA Coach of the Year Mike Brown. The under was 45-36-1 for the Cavs during the regular season and 3-1 during their four-game sweep of the Detroit Pistons in the first round.

Atlanta has also enjoyed success this year with head coach Mike Woodson, another defensive specialist who assisted Larry Brown and the Pistons to the NBA title in 2004 – against Bryant and the heavily favored Lakers, no less. The under went a fairly tepid 42-38-2 before the playoffs; against the Miami Heat, Woodson and the Hawks put on the clamps and drove the under to a 5-2 record while winning the series in seven games.

All well and good, but the four games these teams played during the regular season tell a different story. While Cleveland won three of four, it was Atlanta cashing in three times as the underdog with the over at 3-1. The two games at Philips Arena speak volumes for what could happen in this series: The Hawks (+4) won 97-92 in December and lost 88-87 in March. James and the Cavs had relatively little trouble winning the other two matchups in Cleveland and missed going 2-0 ATS by just three points.

You might recall how the Hawks won all three of their home games against the Celtics SU and ATS during last year’s playoffs, while Boston went 4-0 SU and ATS at the Garden. Atlanta’s home/away split for the 2008-09 regular season follows the same pattern:

• Home: 31-10 SU, 22-18-1 ATS, Under 23-18
• Away: 16-25 SU, 21-20 ATS, Over 20-19-2

Playing defense takes a lot of energy, and at this level of play, having a raucous crowd of some 20,000 fans on your side does indeed make a difference. The Hawks had two particularly bad games against the Heat in Miami, but went 3-1 SU and ATS at home to advance to the second round. It’s not too difficult to conclude that Atlanta could be a very tasty pick once this series moves to the south.

But that all depends on how badly Atlanta gets beaten Tuesday night. Although the Cavs are incredibly good wherever they go, home cooking suits them just as well as it does the Hawks:

• Home: 39-2 SU, 28-13 ATS, Under 24-16-1
• Away: 27-14 SU, 22-19 ATS, Over 21-20

The chalk simply hasn’t been keeping up with the Cavs this year. They’re an amazing 38-20 ATS when favored by at least six points and 14-7 ATS when laying at least 11 points. The only remaining argument against Cleveland in this situation is the eight days off between eliminating the Pistons and facing the Hawks in Game 1. A bet on Atlanta here is a bet that James and the Cavs will come out a bit rusty, while the Hawks will be in rhythm after the standard single day of rest between games. There’s some value there; will it be enough?

The only consistent thing about the series has been its inconsistency. Both teams have been guilty of one Jeykyl and Hyde performance after another. Compared to the excitement and drama of the Chicago and Boston series, this is like kissing your grandmother after a night out with Selma Hayek! Atlanta and Miami have provided us with clunker after clunker.

For the first time in the series a team has finally established itself (we think) with back-to-back wins. Atlanta took Games 4 and 5 turning a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 lead and both were double-digit victories.

And where the Hawks have several scoring options – Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby and Josh Smith – the Heat have just one, Dwyane Wade. However he’s not enough and if Atlanta’s coaching staff was paying attention to how Denver shut down CP3, they could make Wade work even harder for his points tonight.

I said going in that Miami was the better team in large part because of Wade. And while I think Wade’s the best player on the court, the Hawks have more depth and are the better team right now.

Atlanta is a slightly better ATS road team (22-21) than Miami is as a home team against the number (21-21-1).

Even though the average margin of victory in this series has been 19 points per game, I’m looking for the two teams to buck that trend tonight. We’re finally going to have a close game and that should translate into a cover and perhaps an outright win for the Hawks.

One final note: Teams facing elimination are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in this year's postseason.

Take Atlanta and the points tonight against the Heat.

Free Pick: Hawks +5 (-110)

You know that old saying, “If it’s too good to be true it probably is?" Here’s another old cliché: “There’s an exception to every rule.”

Philadelphia is laying five points against a beat-up Orlando team that will be without their best player, Dwight Howard. Superman was suspended for Game 6 for throwing an ill-advised elbow with intent to do great bodily harm. He’ll sit, along with shooting guard Courtney Lee, who suffered a fractured bone in his face when he ran into a Howard elbow.

The Sixers have been given a golden opportunity to square this series and force a Game 7 in Orlando, and I don’t anticipate they’ll blow it. Instead of facing Howard and Lee, they’ll see Marcin Gortat and J.J. Redick instead. I don’t know about you but the latter two players don’t worry me much. No NBA team at this point in the season will concede anything. But you couldn’t fault Orlando if they decided to save their ammunition for another day.

Outside of the Game 5 blowout by the Magic, every game in this series has been close. That tells me Philly should have no problem winning and covering tonight.

If your looking to “double up” tonight, the Under is an attractive play as well. The Sixers are 16-25-2 to the low side at home this season while the Magic are 37-50 to the Under this year.

I risked the farm last night on Denver and won. So I’m willing to risk both farms tonight along with my new John Deere tractor. Philly should roll and cover easily.

Free Pick: 76ers -5 (-110)

Houston has been in command of this series since spanking the Trail Blazers on the road in Game 1.

In the last two games here they held Portland to 83 and 88 points, allowing 42% and 45% shooting. They played a physical style that knocked the young Blazers off their game. They ran out of gas in Game 5, though they turned an 11-point deficit midway through the third quarter into a four-point lead early in the fourth.

Now coming home they know this is the game to win, as Houston doesn't want to head out on the road for Game 7. Houston is 35-8 at home, while Portland is 20-23 on the road. Look for a monster, physical effort by the home team...and the series to be over. Play the Rockets.

Free Pick: Rockets -5 (-110)

The Jazz saw their best and last chance to challenge the Lakers evaporate with a Game 4 loss Saturday in Salt Lake City. Instead of squaring the series at two wins apiece, Utah got spanked in front of its home crowd and is on the ropes, facing a 3-1 deficit.

The truth is the Jazz, one of the worst road teams in the league, have little or no chance to prolong the series. Utah lost the first two games of the series falling by double-digits in each game. That continued a season-long pattern of road woes for the Jazz who are now 18-25 SU and 18-25 ATS away from the great Salt Lake.

Granted the Lakers are just 21-22 against the number but this is one of those playoff occasions where the team leading the series, in this case the Lakers, will go for the throat Utah let its chance to make this a series with their Game 4 flop and they’ll pay tonight.

If the Lakers Game 4 victory in Utah is any indication, then it appears Phil Jackson’s club has finally figured how to put a team away. Led by Kobe Bryant’s 38 point performance, the Lakers went wire-to-wire for a 108-94 victory that wasn’t even that close. Bryant scored the Lakers first 11 points and rained 16 of 24 shots hitting them from every distance and every angle.

Jackson also made a lineup change prior to Game 4 in Utah, starting Lamar Odom in place of the ineffective Andrew Bynum. Odom responded with 10 points, 15 rebounds and six assists.

Geography will also play a huge role in tonight’s game, as in the Lakers don’t want to return to Utah for Game 6. I expect this game to play out much like Sunday’s finale between the Cavs and Pistons. Once LA gets out in front it wont’ be a matter of if they win, but by how much.

In the land of “Hotel California,” the Jazz have already checked out. I’ll be stunned if the margin of victory is anything less than 20 points.

Free Pick: Lakers -12 (-110)

The Boston Celtics have proven that they feel they have something to prove vs. the Chicago Bulls here.

What is that? That they can win without Kevin Garnett. That has essentially become their calling card. After losing game one of this series and playing very porous defensively, they've turned it all around and played Celtic basketball. Granted, Game Two was a tight win at home but they bounced back with a huge defensive effort in Game Three and absolutely dominated the Bulls.

They've put the clamps on Derrick Rose and, you can tell by the effort, it's almost as if each and every one of the Celtics is taking this the challenge personally. They've really stepped up their efforts, they are still the defending champs, and we absolutely see line value with them here in Game Four as they're again catching a handful of points against the over-rated Bulls.

Play Boston plus the points early Sunday afternoon.

Free Pick: Celtics +3 (-110)

With the Boston Celtics leading the series 2-1 vs. the Chicago Bulls, this is a critical game for both teams this afternoon in Chicago.

The Celtics tough defense was a key factor in the win in Chicago Thursday night. They held the Bulls to just 37 percent shooting from the floor and forced 22 turnovers. The main culprit was Derrick Rose with seven turnovers, and the rookie struggled, shooting just 4-14 from the floor. The rookie point guard has slowly started to teeter off since his 36 point Game 1 performance.
 
The Celtics are an underdog today and a nice tidbit is the Under has cashed in eight of their last 10 playoff games as an underdog.  The Under also has cashed tickets in six of the last seven meetings in Chicago between the two. Expect a different game today than the first two games in Boston. It should be a lot grittier and the Celtics defense should be at the same level of intensity as the last meeting. As history shows during the mid-point in these playoff series teams start figuring each other out and the scoreboard doesn't light up as often as the opening games.
 
Derrick Rose is a key factor to this team, and Rondo and the Celtics may have rattled his confidence slightly these past two games. It's hard to run the offense when your young point guard is struggling.  The Celtics may have found the key to slowing down the Bulls, they have dropped their past four games putting up 90 points or less and we expect them to try to clamp down again today.
 
We'll play Under 200 when the Bulls and Celtics square off in Game 4.

Free Pick: Celtics, Bulls Under 200 (-110)

Absolutely everything went right for the Hawks in Game 1 of this series. All five starters scored in double figures, as did Zaza Pachulia off the bench, and the defense was simply stifling, particularly in the second half.

Six players reached double digits again in Game 2 of the series, but the defense which held Miami to 36.6% shooting in Game 1 was awful and gave up 55.6% from the floor. Don't blame forward Josh Smith, though. Smith has excelled in this series, recording double-doubles in both outings. He also leads the team for the series in steals (five) and blocks (three). For a team that held its opponents to 96.5 points per game in the regular season, Atlanta should be getting better defensive efforts from guard's Mike Bibby and Joe Johnson.

Though he wasn't the only reason the Heat lost Game 1, Dwyane Wade was a huge part of the problem. He only shot 8/21 from the floor and turned the ball over eight times. Wade still led Miami in scoring with 19 points, but that's not saying much for a team that only mustered 25 total points in the second half.

Game 2 was a completely different story for the former Marquette star though. He shot 11/20 from the field and 6/10 from beyond the arc for 33 points. Wade also dished out seven dimes and hauled in five boards. Keep an eye on both guard Daequan Cook and forward Michael Beasley, each contributing solid minutes to the Heat off the bench. The duo combined for 32 points and 11 boards in Game 2 and can be counted on for more good minutes in the remainder of this series.

It's hard not to like Miami's chances in this series from here. In Game 2, the Heat had the swagger of the team that won the NBA Championship just a few years ago. Miami went 28-13 at American Airlines Arena this season, while Atlanta went just 16-25 away from Phillips Arena. The Hawks are only 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games with Miami, and an even worse 3-12 ATS away from home. Expect the hosts to go ahead in this series on Saturday night.

Free Pick: Heat -4 (-110)

The Sixers enter Wednesday's Game 2 once again an undeservedly heavy underdog to the Magic. After Sunday's 100-98 victory, the oddsmakers still gave the Sixers no love for their efforts.

Forward Andre Iguodala led the Sixers to a win in Game 1 with his 20 points, eight rebounds and eight assists. His 20-foot jump shot with two seconds remaining propelled Philadelphia to the narrow victory. The good news for Sixers bettors is that underdogs are 24-11 ATS in the the last 35 meetings of this series.

The Magic were stunned after blowing an 18-point third quarter lead in Game 1. If Orlando is to cover this gargantuan spread in this spot, they will need a better performance from their top three players. Forward Hedo Turkoglu was completely irrelevant in Game 1 scoring just six points, and he lofted a massive brick while taking Orlando's last shot of the contest.

Also of note is the eye injury to center Dwight Howard who is listed as probable for Game 2. No doubt he'll play, but it could hamper his production. Orlando has reached 100 points just once in their last 10 overall after averaging 101.3 PPG during the regular season.

The Sixers will cover this spread once again and could possibly walk away with another narrow victory come Wednesday night. The Magic are a team in complete disarray after Sunday's loss and with Turkoglu not at full strength they're in deep trouble. Orlando has every reason to come out angry and cover this spread, but Philly's game and will fight the Magic tooth and nail. Grab the heaping load of points with confidence!

Free Pick: 76ers +10½ (-110)

The first round kicks off today as Yao Ming and the Houston Rockets take a trek to the Northwest to face the Portland Trail Blazers.

If you want to talk trends, Portland may be the hottest team ATS and straight up heading into the playoffs. They are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games. They won nine of their 10 final games straight up.  They are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games and 5-1 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning record.

The Rockets are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven playoff games as a road underdog. They finished the season just 1-5 ATS in their last six road games and 0-5 in their last five road games against teams with winning home records.

This is where the absence of Tracy McGrady comes into play. Yes they will have Ron Artest to match up with Brandon Roy, but where is that dominant perimeter punch they are going to rely on? The Trail Blazers shoot very well at home and have options with guys like Roy, Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw, Rudy Fernandez and Sergio Rodriguez who all can bury the big shot. They are very solid in the paint with guys like Lamarcus Aldrige,Greg Oden, Joel Pryzbila and Channing Frye.

They will have their hands full with Yao but head coach Nate McMillan has the bodies to rotate in and out.  There are enough options for Roy to kick it out to since he will guarded by Artest most of this series and Portland's perimter shooters have to hit these big shots since this is their biggest advantage tonight.

In the only meeting in Portland between the two this season, the Blazers won 101-99.  That was when the Rockets still had McGrady healthy . The Rockets haven't advanced out of the first round in over 10 years. It's going to be tough for Houston who lost four of their final six road games to make that happen without T-Mac this year. The only two road games they won down the stretch were against Golden State and Sacramento.

The Trail Blazers are coming in as hot as it gets winning six straight. We'll back this young team and all the energy the Rose Garden will have tonight.

Free Pick: Trail Blazers -4½

The Detroit Pistons and the Cleveland Cavaliers have a history of playing low scoring games against each other, and that should be even further amplified here in the playoffs.

First looking strictly at this season, these teams hooked up four times during the regular season, when teams play looser and thus games are generally higher scoring than playoff games. Despite this, the Under was a perfect 4-0 in those games, and an average combined total score of 171.1 points, which is already nearly four full points less than this posted total.

Secondly, remember that these teams met in a seven-game playoff series two years ago where the home team won every game. Besides the home dominance, the other thing that stood out in those games was defense, and beginning with that series, the last 14 meetings between these teams have averaged 171.2 points with the Under going 11-3.

The personalities of these teams have not changed in the last two years, as evidenced by the four meetings this season, so look for yet another slugfest today with the teams struggling to score more than 170 points again.

Free Pick: Pistons, Cavaliers Under 175 (-110)

Our Saturday NBA playoff selection is on the Boston Celtics at home minus the points over Chicago, as Boston falls into a 35-13 system of mine as well as a 30-8 ATS angle.

Granted, the Celtics will be hard-pressed to win the title this season without Kevin Garnett on the floor (though I'm certain he will attempt to suit up at some point in the postseason).   But they're certainly good enough to win at home in Game 1 of the Playoffs vs. these Baby Bulls.

After all, this is the same Chicago team that in a game it sorely wanted to win on Wednesday vs. Toronto, was blown out by the Raptors.  And that game was on Chicago's home court.

Boston won and covered both meetings at home against the Bulls this season, winning 96-80 as 10-point chalk when the two teams met on Halloween at TD Banknorth Garden and following that up with a 126-108 triumph Dec 19 as 12-point favorites.

Look for an old-fashioned blowout in Beantown this afternoon.  Lay the points.

Free Pick: Celtics -8½ (-110)

You cannot doubt the Cleveland Cavaliers, with Kevin Garnett out for Boston, are the frontrunners in the East here.

They have won the last three times against Detroit and in their last meeting, the Cavs won by six despite shooting only 38% from the floor overall, getting outrebounded by 10 and shooting just 20% from beyond the arc! That rarely happens, and it just shows the distance between these two teams.

Rarely do I lay double digits in an NBA game in the playoffs, even for a free play, but the Cavaliers are clearly the better team in every aspect of stat handicapping.

The Pistons dropped their last three games, and six out of their last 10, and come into a strong home court for the Cavs limping at best. The favorite in this series is a solid 8-1 ATS the last nine times, and I sniff a blowout here in Cleveland Saturday!

Free Pick: Cavaliers -12 (-110)

Conseco Fieldhouse will be the site of tonight’s clash between the Indiana Pacers and the visiting Milwaukee Bucks.

Both teams are home for the playoffs and the Bucks have tossed the proverbial towel since the All-Star break posting an ATS record of 4-12 ATS when playing on the highway. Milwaukee is 4-13 ATS when playing against a team with a win percentage of 40 to 49 percent during the second half of the season the last two years and 0-9 ATS after playing four consecutive home games the last three seasons.

The Bucks are coming in off back-to-back wins at home versus Oklahoma City and an Orlando Magic team that rested players.

The Pacers enter tonight’s contest off a home loss to league-leading Cleveland, 117-109 as a four-point home underdog on Monday night. Prior to that loss the Pacers fought hard against the Atlanta Hawks and managed to get the spread cover in that contest, and they just defeated a Detroit Pistons team that was fighting for playoff position, 106-102 last Saturday night at Conseco.

This Pacers team has shown some fight down the stretch and has not tossed in the towel even though they are not headed to the playoffs. The Pacers had covered four straight before that loss to Cleveland and should bounce back here with a SU and ATS win over a disinterested Bucks squad.

Not a huge fan of the overused “revenge” factor by so many in this business but there are times its valid. Indiana lost at Milwaukee back on February 11, 122-110 as a five-point road underdog, and that win gave the Bucks a 2-1 series lead this season. Not only will the Pacers want to avenge that 12-point road loss but they would like to even the season series.

Database research has uncovered the fact that the Pacers are 29-18 ATS revenging a loss, 21-12 ATS revenging a same season loss, 16-5 ATS revenging a loss of 10 points or more, 22-11 ATS revenging a road loss and 15-4 ATS revenging a road loss of 10 points or more this season. Indiana, coming off a SU and ATS loss in their previous game and now facing a conference opponent on their home floor, has posted a perfect record of 5-0 ATS their last five.

The Bucks as a division underdog have gone 2-9 ATS their last 11. Milwaukee, after going Under in their last game and now a division underdog, is a perfect 0-5 ATS their last five in this situation. Milwaukee is active in an NBA system that tells us to play against division road underdogs coming off a home game, 20-40 ATS; if they won that game their record is 17-33 ATS.

With the Pacers playing with some degree of purpose and the Bucks having tossed the towel and planning their vacations we will back the host as they avenge their earlier loss by double-digits to this Bucks team and even the season series at two apiece. Lay the chalk as the Pacers roll in Conseco to end the 2008-09 campaign.

Projected Final Score: Indiana Pacers-112 Milwaukee-95

Free Pick: Pacers -8 (-110)

The Los Angeles Lakers have been playing defense the last month, and currently on a 12-4 run under the total. That was evident again in a 92-75 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies at Staples Center on Sunday.

Andruw Bynum had a team-high 18 points, Kobe Bryant had 16 points and the Lakers improved to 64-17 with one regular season game left Tuesday against Utah.

They take on a team that hasn't played defense all year. Utah is also in a tough situational spot, playing their fourth game infive5 nights, plus the second of a back-to-back road spot.

The last time these two met was Feb 11 at the EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City.  With the number closing on the Lakers as 1-point favorites, Utah pulled off a 113-109 upset behins Deron Williams' 31 points and 11 assists, and tonight will be payback time for LA. Play the rested Lakers.

Free Pick: Lakers (-110)

The Palace at Auburn Hills will be the site of tonight’s Eastern Conference battle between the Detroit Pistons and the visiting Chicago Bulls.

With the regular season coming to an end on Wednesday night, each game for teams fighting for playoff position become unbelievably important. Seeding in the East playoffs is important from the standpoint of not wanting to travel to Cleveland in your first round series if you can possibly get around it, but the alternatives aren’t much better for the Bulls as they would likely have to face Boston or Orlando.

The Detroit Pistons have had an up-and-down season under first year head coach Mike Curry but they have secured a spot in this year’s postseason. Detroit is money burning 11-23 ATS as chalk at Auburn Hills this season plus the Bulls have covered the three previous encounters with the Pistons during the 2008-09 campaign. Not only have the Bulls won the money in all three meetings this season, they are on a current ATS streak against the Pistons that is now at seven straight.

Chicago defeated Detroit in their most recent meeting back on March 24 at the United Center, 99-91 as a 4½-point home favorite. Many would think we are wrong for backing the Bulls here because of the revenge factor but as many of you know we do not believe in following anything blindly even revenge. Add to that fact the Pistons are 12-25 ATS in home games revenging a road loss the last three seasons. Detroit is 2-12 ATS after a division game, 0-8 ATS off a loss against a division rival, 15-26 ATS after one or more consecutive losses and 1-12 ATS after three straight games forcing their opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers this season.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index only favors the Pistons by 0.9 points in tonight’s matchup and our Math Model Index shows Detroit with only a 1.4 point advantage. With the current line at Bulls +4 we are receiving decent line value here so take the points with the visitor as they get another ATS win against this Pistons team on Monday night.

Projected Final Score: Chicago-103 Detroit-104

Free Pick: Bulls +4 (-110)

The Dallas Mavericks played yesterday, the second of back-to-back big games vs. New Orleans. They've got another big game vs. Houston on deck to close out the regular season, followed by the playoffs.

Dallas is 3-0 in their meetings with the Timberwolves this season, including a 108-88 win on Mar 31 in Minnesota in which the Mavs easily covered as 8-point favorites.  In that game Dirk Nowitzki was the leading scorer for Dallas with 23, adding 12 rebounds while Jason Kidd Dished out 13 assists for the victors.

It should be easy for the Mavericks to look past this evening's lowly opponent. With the T-Wolves at a profitable 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they were road underdogs in the +9½ to +12 range, consider taking the points.

Free Pick: Timberwolves +11½ (-110)

The 76ers are still fighting for playoff position even though they have locked up a spot, and they need this win tonight because they face Boston and Cleveland to close out the regular season.  Philadelphia's recent slide has kept it from overtaking Miami for fifth place in the conference, and it's also put the team in danger of being overtaken by Chicago and Detroit.

Philadelphia is one game behind the Heat, who hosts New York on Sunday. The 76ers last visit to Air Canada Centre was a successful one as they defeated the Raptors 106-96 as a five-point road underdog. That win came way back in November but the Sixers have taken two out of three from the host and also covered the spread in those two wins.

The Raptors are 11-26 against the spread when facing teams with a winning record this season and we expect that trend to continue tonight. Philadelphia is 30-14 ATS in road games when playing their third game in four days the last three seasons and 14-4 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games.

Our TPR Index projects a Philadelphia win and cover by 4.8 points over the Toronto Raptors on Sunday. With one team playing for playoff position and the other having tossed the towel on the season we will back the visitor here tonight as Philadelphia rolls past the Raptors north of the border. 

Graded Selection:  Philadelphia 76ers 99 Toronto Raptors 94

Free Pick: 76ers +1 (-110)

The Pistons got the big win they needed on Wednesday when the routed the Knicks in New York, 113-86, and now Detroit sits in strong position for one of the final playoff spots.

That Detroit needed a big win to stay in the playoff chase this late in the season says a lot about how far they have fallen in the Eastern Conference after being the premier team for several years. The Pistons are 13-26 ATS at home this season and 5-9 S/U in the last 14 games overall.

New Jersey has continued to play hard late in the season with recent wins over these Pistons and the 76ers so far in April. The Nets also played two very close games against Boston and Chicago on the road. New Jersey has been a strong ATS team on the road all season long and the Nets have won 15 games S/U on the road this season, far more than most teams with similar records.

New Jersey is the much better offensive team and Detroit's defense is no where near as strong as it used to be. The Nets are a dangerous team playing as a big underdog and Detroit should let down after playing a great game on Wednesday.

Free Pick: Nets +7 (-110)

The United Center will be the site of tonight’s battle between the Chicago Bulls and the visiting Philadelphia 76ers. The Bulls will be looking to win and get the split on the season series between these two; they won the first meeting of the season on November 30 in Philly, 103-92 as a 6-point road underdog.

Since that win they have lost the two ensuing meetings, including a home loss December 12 when they fell 103-95 as a 1½-point home favorite, and then most recently lost at Philadelphia on March 13, 104-101 as a 3-point road underdog.

The Bulls have been solid at home this season posting a record of 26-12 SU and 21-17 ATS. Since the All-Star break Chicago has been almost unbeatable, posting a record of 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS at the United Center.

The 76ers are playing the final game of the three-game road trip that has seen them lose the first two and they host NBA leading Cleveland on Friday in Philly. Not a good situation for Philadelphia and the Bulls should be able to exploit it and come away with the win and cover.

Database research has uncovered an NBA system that is active for tonight’s contest and it tells us to play against NBA conference road teams coming off a SU loss, ATS win and going Over in their last game; these teams are 8-23 ATS this season. If our play-against team is installed as an underdog, their record is 7-19 ATS, and if they were on the road in their last game their record is 3-12 ATS this season.

Our TPR Index projects a Bulls win by 8.1 points over the 76ers tonight. Our Math Model Index also has the Bulls covering by 2.2 points over the current line of 6 points. Lay the chalk with the host as the Bulls get the SU and ATS win to even the season series against the 76ers.

Projected Final Score: Chicago-109 Philadelphia-96

Free Pick: Bulls -6 (-110)

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be out to avenge a trio of losses suffered this season against the Nuggets when they take the court in Denver tonight.

Interestingly, in all three losses Oklahoma City has managed to take down the money.In the most recent meeting between the two squads, the Nuggets treated their home fans to a 112-99 win over the Thunder.  But it was Oklahoma City (+13½) who treated their backers by the slimmest of margins with the same line posted for this game.

In that game, Carmelo Anthony was the leading scorer for Denver with 22 points while Renaldo Balkman posted a double-double with 14 points and 14 boards.  Jeff Green paced OKC with 19 points as the Thunder played without the services of Kevin Durant.

The Thunder are are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS of late in this floor when playing without rest. With Denver looking dead ahead to a big showdown with the Lakers in Los Angeles tomorrow night, look for the Thunder to to complete its grand slam of pointspread winners in this series tonight. Take the points with the Okies.

Free Pick: Thunder +13½ (-110)

The Orlando Magic and Houston Rockets can both use a win tonight, but with the #2 seed on the line in the Eastern Conference, it might be even bigger for the Orlando side.

Both teams are trying to catch banged-up squads in front of them in their respective conference standings.  Houston is presently fourth in the Western Conference, just a half-game behind their Lone Star rivals from San Antonio who announced yesterday that Manu Ginobli was done for the season.

Over in the Eastern Conference, the Magic are currently the No. 3 seed, just a half-game behind the Boston Celtics who have been without forward Kevin Garnett 18 of their last 24 games and might see Rajon Rondo miss time this week after twisting an ankle in practicec on Monday.

The home court has meant very little in this series with the visitor winning eight of the last 10 meetings outright, a trend I believe continues tonight. I'll go with the Magic to notch the road win and cover.

Free Pick: Magic -1 (-110)

We can expect a low-scoring affair in Houston tonight between the Rockets and the Magic. The Orlando defense has been very strong of late and due to that result, the Under has cashed a ticket in eight of their previous 11 games. They've also remained under in four of their last five road games.
 
Both of these teams are strategically tough on the defensive side of the ball. Houston, led by Ron Artest and Company, aren't slacking on the defensive side of the ball either. Visitors haven't had a friendly time shooting in Houston, being held to just 91 PPG and 41.9% from the floor.

When Houston plays teams that are in the upper tier of the league like Orlando with a winning percentage above .600, the Under is on a strong 9-1 run. We feel this game will play out very similar to their defensive battle with the Lakers the other night where the total came in at 174. It should be a little higher than that in the low 180's.

Expect a tough, gritty old school defensive battle when these two take the court tonight. Play under 188½ on Tuesday in Houston.

Free Pick: Magic-Rockets Under 188½ (-110)

The Oklahoma City Thunder were embarrassed here at home 107-72 by the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday, but we look for a much improved performance tonight as they drop down in class a bit to take on the Indiana Pacers.

Indiana has not performed well on the road this season, going just 10-29 straight up while allowing a horrendous 108.1 points per game. In fact, the Pacers have allowed over 100 points in 12 of their last 13 road games while going 4-9 straight up in those games. Yes, they are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 road games, but they were favored in two of those games and they were a much bigger underdog than this in all the others.

The Thunder will certainly enjoy the freedom here after the suffocating defense that Portland played against them the other night. Remember that this team did shock the Spurs on the road two games ago, so perhaps there was still some lingering hangover effect in the blowout loss to the Blazers. Also, Oklahoma City did cover the number at Indiana in the only other head-to-head meeting this season, losing by eight points as 11½-point dogs.

With the shift in venue to Oklahoma and the Thunder looking to atone for a dreadful home performance, look for a safe win tonight.

Free Pick: Thunder -2 (-110)

The New York Knicks travel north of the border to take on the Toronto Raptors in this right back revenge rematch from yesterday that saw Toronto beat New York, 102-95, at Madison Square Garden.

Today however, the roles reverse with the Raptors dressing up as the favorite. Meanwhile the Knicks will be seeking same season double revenge, a role in which they are 4-1 against the spread this season under Mike D'Antoni.

With Toronto 0-2 straight up and ATS against same season double avenging foes this campaign, look for New York to get their payback here today.

Free Pick: Knicks +5½ (-110)

The San Antonio Spurs visit the Cleveland Cavaliers today receiving a nice amount of points in this road game.

The Spurs have been slowing down as of late, losing five of their last 10 games. In all five of those losses, they were favorites and they lost those games by a margin of four points or less.
 
They've been playing teams tough down to the wire and we think they will do the same against the Cavs today. The Cavs come in here with back to back losses straight up and are in a 0-3 run against the spread. Also, the away team has won the last five head-to-head meetings between these clubs straight up!

The Spurs have been strong on a 6-2 ATS run receiving points on the highway. The Cavs are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.  The Cavs are also struggling laying between 5-10 points going 2-6 ATS in their last eight games in that range.
 
In the first meeting this season in San Antonio the Cavs won 97-86 against a Spurs team without Tim Duncan or Ginobli. Today they are both healthy and that is a huge difference maker. We know the Cavs haven't loss three in a row since last season but expect the Spurs who are still trying to get that two seed in the Western Conference to come out here and compete the whole game.
 
Spurs pulling of an upset isn't out of the question, but we'll definitely take the points.

Free Pick: Spurs+6½ (-110)

The Houston Rockets and the Portland Trail Blazers both know how to play tough defense.

Houston is on a 9-4 run Under the total, and just held the explosive LA Lakers offense to 93 points in a 93-81 defeat. They held LA to 39 percent shooting, and now come home where they play their best defense.

Portland is off another dominant game, adding to their string of blowouts, routing the Oklahoma City Thunder 107-72 on Friday night. They've held two of the last three opponents to 66 and 72 points!

Look for a defensive battle in Texas, play the Blazers/Rockets Under the total.

Free Pick: Blazers, Rockets Under 185½ (-110)

The Knicks New York have performed admirably under head coach Mike D'Antoni this season, especially when playing off back-to-back losses.

That's confirmed by their 17-6 ATS mark in this role as a dog or favorite of three or less points, including 9-0 the last nine games. They are also 8-3 ATS facing the Toronto Raptors when playing off back-to-back defeats, including 5-0 ATS at home.

In the first of back-to-back grudge games in two nights (these two teams will be in Toronto tomorrow night), look for the Knicks to avenge a 111-100 loss suffered most recently in this series. We recommend a 1-unit play on New York.

Free Pick: Knicks -2 (-110)

Our Saturday afternoon NBA selection is on the New York Knicks at home in Madison Square Garden minus the points over Toronto, as we will fade the Raptors off their streak of five SU/ATS wins in a row.

At first glance, one might be tempted to play against New York as the Knicks come into today's game off three straight road losses. But I wouldn't do that if I were you.

Granted, Toronto is "hot," but NBA road dogs of 2½ or more points cover just 37% of the time off five SU/ATS wins. Lay the points with Mike D'Antoni's men this afternoon.

Free Pick: Knicks -2½ (-110)

Our Friday night NBA selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points on the road over the Indiana Pacers.

San Antonio was rocked on their home floor Tuesday by the Oklahoma City Thunder, and that was the second time this season OKC has upset the Spurs.  That's given those in the Alamo City much cause for alarm, so the team needs to come out with a supreme effort tonight to quell such concerns.  I believe they will.

San Antonio comes into Friday night's game off two days of rest, which has been a huge benefit to the Spurs over the last few years (85-52 ATS).  Also, the Pacers are a poor 15-26 ATS off a home win (Indy defeated the Bulls 107-105 in its last game).  Take San Antonio.

Free Pick: Spurs -4 (-110)

The Houston Rockets travel to take on the Lakers in Los Angeles with same-season triple revenge on their minds at the Staples Center this evening.

Los Angeles has won all three meetings this year beginning with a 111-82 win way back on Nov 9 here at Staples.  The next two meetings came in Houston with LA winning 105-100 on Jan 13 and102-96 just a few weeks ago on Mar 11.  Kobe Bryant has scored 23, 33 and 37 points in the previous meetings.

With Houston a stellar 21-5 SU and 17-9 ATS in games off a loss this season, including 5-0 ATS when taking three or more points, look for the Lakers to fall to 3-7 ATS at home on Friday nights here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Houston.

Free Pick: Rockets +5½ (-110)

TD Banknorth Garden will be the site between Eastern Conference rivals Atlanta Hawks and the host Boston Celtics. The Hawks come into this contest having just lost at Philadelphia on March 31, 98-85 as a 2-point road underdog.

Atlanta was riding a seven game win streak during the middle part of March with wins over Detroit, New Orleans, Utah, Portland and Dallas but has since lost four of their last six overall, though one of their two recent wins came against the West leading LA Lakers at home. Even with their recent losing skid it appears that the Hawks will get home-court advantage during the first round of the playoffs and will likely face either Philly or Miami.

Atlanta is 43-32 SU and 42-32 ATS overall this season including 14-23 SU and 19-17 ATS on the road averaging 97.0 points per game while allowing 99.7 points per game. The Hawks have done well ATS when facing teams with a winning record going 22-13 ATS this season in that situation and they are 15-6 ATS as an underdog of 3½ to 9½ points during the 2008-09 campaign.

The defending champs enter tonight’s contest off a double overtime win at home versus Charlotte on Wednesday, winning 111-109 as a 7½-point home favorite. Their ATS results in that contest, failing to cover, have become commonplace of late with them posting a record of only 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games at home. The win over Charlotte Wednesday night triggers a few technical situations that are bad news for Celtics backers in tonight’s contest.

First we see that Boston is 17-42 ATS in home games after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more, 59-86 ATS in home games after allowing 105 points or more and 30-56 ATS after a close win by three points or less since 1996.

These teams have met three times this season with the last two being played in Atlanta.  Boston won those games straight up 99-93 and 88-85 while splitting against the spread. The first meeting this season took place here with Boston winning 103-102 as an 11-point home favorite. The Hawks are 0-3 SU against the Celtics this season but 2-1 ATS and we expect another close one tonight.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects the Celtics with a 2.97 point advantage over the Hawks and our Math Model Ratings Index also signals a Boston win but not a cover with an edge of only 3.4 points over Atlanta.

Take the points as the boys from ATL take the Celtics right down to the wire and cash the winning ticket for us on Friday night.

Projected Final Score: Atlanta-87 Boston-90

Free Pick: Hawks +6 (-110)

I’ve avoided the Los Angeles Lakers like the plague this season but this is one spot where I’m going to side with Kobe Bryant and Company.

The Lakers have already clinched the Pacific Division title and the Western Conference championship but they’ve still got some goals within reach that should provide motivation down the stretch. LA is one victory away from the 60-win plateau, something they haven’t accomplished in nine years.

The Lake Show is also in a race with Cleveland for the best record in the NBA. For good measure a win tonight would give the Lakers a season sweep of Houston, something they haven’t done in seven years. The Lakers have plenty of reasons to play hard over the next seven games.

The Lakers are also a much better offensive team than they showed in the losses to the Hawks and Bobcats. I believe that’s why we’re getting the favorable number. Los Angeles is putting up 106 ppg and I suspect they’ll be firing on all cylinders to put to rest any fears that the “Laker Nation” might have.

Houston is coming off a loss at Phoenix where the Suns simply ran them off the court. It was out of character for the Rockets who boast one of the better defenses in the league. The “matchups” favor the Lakers as well. LA has been one of the few teams to keep Yao Ming and Ron Artest in check. If they do that again tonight, they’ll win going away.

LA has taken the first three meetings SU and ATS, scoring in triple digits each time. In the only game played in Los Angeles, the Lakers rolled to a 111-82 win, holding Houston to 38% shooting and forcing Tracy McGrady into a 1-for-11 performance while limiting Artest and Yao to a combined 20 points. Pau Gasol was a beast that night scoring 20 points with 15 rebounds.

Take the Lakers at this bargain basement price.

Free Pick: Lakers -5½ (-110)

The Portland Trail Blazers hit the road to start the first game of a four game road trip tonight in Oklahoma City against the Thunder.
 
These two teams don't usually light up the scoreboard when they hit the court against one another. The Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the two, and 8-0 in the Thunder's last eight home games, 7-2 in their last nine overall. We know they just pulled the upset against San Antonio, and the Under has cashed six out of their last eight games following a straight up win.
 
The Under has cashed a ticket in five of Portland's last seven games on the highway. The under is also on a 6-0 run when they play teams with losing records.

For some reason Portland has struggled in OKC, losing their last three visits here straight up. The last three games they've met here the totals have averaged just 187 points. We'll back all the strong trends in this one and play Under 193.

Free Pick: Trail Blazers-Thunder Under 193 (-110)

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been an Under machine lately, and we look for that pattern to continue at home tonight vs. a defensive oriented team in the Portland Trail Blazers.

The Under is 7-2 in the last nine Oklahoma City games overall, as well as a perfect 8-0 in the last eight Thunder home games. This is not entirely due to bad offense either, as the Thunder are coming off of one of their better defensive performances in a shocking 96-95 upset of the Spurs on the road in San Antonio.

This is not to say that the offense has not been a major contributing factor to this amazing Under run, as Oklahoma City has now gone 16 consecutive games without reaching 100 points. After playing respectable offense in the first half of the year, the offense is now sputtering to the point where the Thunder have averaged just 92.4 points on 42.5 percent shooting the last five games.

Things do not figure to improve tonight vs. a Portland defense that is allowing only 95.1 points per game for the entire season. Sure, the Blazers have allowed over 100 points in three of the last four games, but two of those came vs. fast paced teams (Suns, Jazz) and the third one was in overtime. We look for them to play closer to their normal season average here tonight.

Blazers road games are averaging a combined 191.4 points this season, and given the current struggles of the Oklahoma City offense, you could probably shave a couple of points off of that average here.

Free Pick: Blazers, Thunder Under 193 (-110)

The Wachovia Center will be the site of tonight’s clash between Eastern Conference foes with the Philadelphia 76ers hosting the visiting Milwaukee Bucks.

Milwaukee is certainly not going to see any postseason activity with a 32-43 record on the year, but they did improve over last season’s 26-56 campaign. This Bucks team saw a five-game improvement on the road this season compared to last season, posting a record of 12-27 SU on the highway this year compared to 7-34 last season). Needless to say, they are not playing for anything, couldn’t even call it pride at this point with such a consistent loser over the last five seasons.

The Bucks had lost five straight both SU and ATS before pulling the mild upset at New Jersey on Monday night 107-78 as a 3-point road underdog. We do not expect any surprises from them tonight as they have struggled against the Sixers in both meetings this season with Philly winning both SU and ATS in each contest.

In the last meeting back on January 7, Philadelphia defeated Milwaukee 110-105 as a 7-point road underdog. In that game the Sixers shot 51.5 percent from the field and 53.3 percent from behind the arc. Philly’s guard play has overwhelmed the Bucks this season averaging 52 percent from 3-point land against them.

In their last meeting, the Bucks shot 47 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from behind the arc on their home floor; when they played in Philly in December the Bucks only managed 43.2 percent from the field and a horrible 13.3 percent from behind the arc on 2-of-15 shooting.

Philly has won and covered the last four meetings between these two teams and none more important maybe than this one as the Sixers are trying to avoid playing Boston in the first round of the playoffs, meaning every win is crucial. This is especially true when you look at their upcoming schedule which has them playing five of their last seven on the road, including two against the Cavaliers and one against the Celtics.

We will lay the points here as the Sixers roll past a Bucks squad playing out the balance of another losing season.

Projected Final Score:  Philadelphia-114 Milwaukee-90

Free Pick: 76ers -8 (-110)