2011 NBA Playoffs

The Los Angeles Lakers are the favorite at the Greek.com, listed at +265 to win the Title. This means that for every $1.00 bet you would receive back $2.65 plus the original $1.00 wager if the Lakers won. Moreover, they are the clear favorite in the Western Conference at -115, which is essentially 1/1 odds having to wager $1.15 to win $1.00. 

The remaining competitors in the Western Conference are San Antonio listed at +245, Oklahoma City Thunder listed at 745, the Dallas Mavericks listed at 1015, the Denver Nuggets listed at 1615, the Portland Trailblazers listed a 3050, and the New Orleans Hornets and Memphis Grizzlies both listed at 6550. So, even though the Lakers limped into the playoffs they are clearly the team to defeat in the Western Conference. 

The Eastern Conference betting odds show the Miami Heat to be the team to beat despite being the second seed, but only by the smallest of margins. The Heat are listed at 165 then closely followed by the top seeded Chicago Bulls listed at 185. In third spot are the Boston Celtics listed at 385, then the Orlando Magic at 785, and ‘any other team’ combining the Philadelphia 76ers, New York Knicks, and Indiana Pacers listed at 1615.

So, safe to say that those three teams have little chance to make it to the conference final and that the NBA odds makers are looking for a showdown between the Heat and the Bulls to represent the Eastern Conference in the Championship game.

Eastern Conference

Philadelphia 76ers versus the Miami Heat

This series has the heavily favored Miami Heat listed at -2200 over the underdog Philadelphia 76ers listed at 1400. I love upsets, but this is not the matchup that will produce one. The Heat may have struggled at times during the regular season and looked like a team in complete disarray with the big three of Lebron James, Dwayne wade, and Chris Bosh trying to adjust to one another’s talents and learn how to play together. However the Big Show lights are on now and I have no doubt that the Heat are going to take their game to the highest level possible. 

Rebounding will be a dominant reason the Heat cruise through this opening round matchup. They rank 10th in total rebounding, averaging 50.5 total boards per game and are equally consistent in both home and road games this season. The 76ers do an adequate job rebounding, but they will have a mountain of troubles containing the Big Three on the offensive glass.

Moreover, the Heat guards are among the best rebounding guards in the NBA. The fact that Philadelphia will have to keep all five defenders focused on solid rebounding will reduce their chances to utilize their strong fast break. 

Philadelphia ranks third in the NBA, averaging 17.6 fast break points per game. Miami has the athleticism to attack the offensive glass and still get back on defense on missed shots. 

Game 1 opportunity

The current line for Game 1 shows the Heat favored by 10 1/2 points, but I strongly believe that is just too many for the Heat to cover in this game. Game 1 is often a very nervous anxious time for a favorite, especially the Heat, who have tremendous pressure to win the Championship and are playing their first playoff game together as a team. 

Supporting the 76ers cause to cover this spread is a strong system that has gone 35-11 ATS for 76% winners since 2005. Play on road dogs of 10 or more points revenging a road loss to the current opponent and is well rested playing six or less games in 14 days. 

Sixers cover Game 1, but the Heat will win the game and the series. 

A winning start for the picks as the Heat won but the Sixers kept it closer than the books had predicted. They covered the eleven points but lost 89-97 on the night with Heats superstars proving to be just too much.

Many people had the Sixers keeping it close in game 2, but it seems the Heat have found their playoff gear and with LeBron James having outscored the entire Philadelphia five on his own by half time there was only ever going to be one outcome. Miami 94, Sixers 73! 2-0 to the Heat.

Game 3 continued in the predicted fashion, as the Big 3 took home the 100-94 win. This win did not come easy however, as the Heat trailed most of the game. As ScottK called it, the 76'ers put forth their best effort but still fell short of overtaking the talented Miami team.

Dwayne Wade finished with 32 points and 10 rebounds, while LeBron posted 24 with 15 rebounds.

Many people had the Heat on a sweep, but in game four the Sixers held their lead, just, to finish out 86-82 and live to play another game in the 2011 Playoffs.

Miami was clearly ready to put this one away and start focusing on the Celtics. While the 76'ers hung around, they just couldn't seal the deal as the Heat took a 97-91 win.

NBA fans are in for a treat as the Heat go on to face the Celtics.

Indiana Pacers versus the Chicago Bulls

There are a multitude of reasons the Indiana Pacers will not win this series. Let's start with the fact that any team that does pull off an upset series win has to steal a game on the road. The Pacers sport a weak 13-27 record and will have trouble even defending their home court against he vastly superior Chicago Bulls. The Pacers rank 28th in assists per game and their failure to distribute the ball and have crisp ball movement will make an already top-level Bulls defense even better. 

The Pacers sport the worst field goal percentage of any of the playoff teams and averaged the highest amounts of turnovers per game in the Eastern Conference. In comparison, the Bulls rank second best in scoring defense allowing 91.3 points per game and have allowed just 89.9 points per game in home games. Bulls sweep this series. 

It was a lot closer than expected and in game 2 between the Pacers and the Bulls I expect them to show their level and dominate.

The books had given the Pacers 11.5 points in this game, but again they showed they can keep it close with a 90-96 loss to cover. However ATS is not so useful in playoff proceedings and the Bulls, largey thanks to Rose, go 2-0. 

Game 3 had fans on the edge of their seats. Bob Harvey called to take the 'under' and even went as far as saying that the first team to 85 would go on to take the win. The Pacers never made it to 85 as the bulls barely squeaked past them with an 88-84 point win. 

The Bulls could have sealed the deal in game 4, but the Pacers had other things in mind. Chicago star Derrick Rose had to leave the game do to an ankle injury, but returned just in time to help the Bulls rally back from behind. His effort was not enough, as Carlos Boozer missed a last second 3 that would have sent the game into overtime.

Bob's pick here in game four was to take the Bulls for the series sweep. While the Bulls more than likely will int this series, it didn't end in the predicted fashion last night.

This one is over folks. Derrick Rose played on a bad ankle, but refused to let it slow him down as he racked up steals, rebounds, blocks, and about anything else he could. Even injured, this guy plays like an MVP and led his team to a 116-89 blowout over the Pacers, sealing the deal in this series. The Bulls advance to round two.

The Boston Celtics hosting the New York Knicks

There has been a lot of media debate on who can win this series. Like the Lakers, the Celtics come into this playoff year showing the age of their team so a few days rest is critical for them to play to full potential in this series. 

The Boston Celtics average starter age at 33 years 250 days does not bode well for them to even get back to the Conference final. Since the 1991-92 season there have only been five teams with an older average starting age than the Celtics. The oldest lineup was the 1999-2000 Utah Jazz at 35 years, 111 days and they lost in the second round. Second oldest was the 2000-01 Utah Jazz at 34 years, 107 days and they lost in the first round. The third oldest playoff team was the 2002-03 Utah Jazz at 34 years and 333 days and they lost in the first round. The fourth oldest playoff team was the 2003-04 Los Angeles Lakers at 34 years 290 days and they lost in the NBA Finals. The fifth oldest NBA playoff team was the 1997-98 Chicago Bulls at 34 years 260 days and they won the Title.

Note that the Lakers and Bulls teams had arguably the best player in the league and one of the best ever to play in Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan respectively. Boston does not have that type of player on its roster and more resemble the aforementioned Jazz teams. 

However, I do like Boston in Game 1 and it is reinforced by a proven money making system that has produced a 53-21 ATS record for 72% winners since 2005. It also features the matchups that Boston will enjoy throughout this series. Play against dogs that are good three point shooting teams making >=36.5% of their shot attempts  and a reliable ball handling team committing less than 14.5 turnovers per game and now facing an average three point shooting team making between 33 to 36.5% of their attempts and an average pressure defensive team forcing 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers per game and with the game taking place after 42 or more regular season games. 

Well this one went against me, the Celtics took a 1-0 lead in the series but the Knicks covered ATS as 6.5 point dogs, losing out by just two points 85-87.

Game 2 in what could be a great series will play out tonight. Joe C likes the look of the Knicks to not only cover but to get the shock win and expects Carmelo Anthony to improve on his game 1 performance.

Who could have asked for a more exciting game 2 than the one we witnessed? Carmelo Anthony was on fire, but with Amare Stoudemire out due to back spasms (he expects to play Friday) and Chauncey Billups still suffering a knee sprain, Anthony had little help.

His 42 point effort wasn't enough to push the Knicks over the Celtics, as Kevin Garnett saved the day for Boston. Doc Rivers and Co. took home the 96-93 win. 

SBR's Joe C. provided two plays on this game, and while the Knicks +7 did cash, they failed to cover on the moneyline, largely in part to Stoudemire's early exit.

Would the Knicks finally pull out a win? They had the home court advantage, but the Celtics didn't let anything phase them, as they eaisly clinched a 113-96 win, largely in part to Ray Allen's 32 and Paul Pierce's 38 points. 

Many had predicted the Knicks to take advantage of being home, and would try to rally together atleast once in this series. This wasnt the case, and heading into game four  0-3, things are not looking good for the Knicks.

Well in the end it wasnt the contest many had hoped for, sure injuries played a part, but the Knicks limped out of the playoffs 0-4. 

Orlando hosting Atlanta

The Atlanta Hawks are a long shot to defeat the Orlando Magic in this first round matchup. The Hawks have the talent and athleticism to compete with every team in the Eastern Conference, but lack the consistent execution to survive in the playoffs. First year coach Larry Drew has done a great job, but he will need this season to learn how to win a road playoff game. 

The Magic have the best overall record against the seven other Eastern Conference playoff teams. Moreover, they are led by a seasoned veteran head coach in Stan Van Gundy. Dwight Howard has posted career highs in scoring and his playoff numbers are consistent and strong. He had an MVP type season averaging 22.9 points per game, 14.1 rebounds per game, and 2.4 blocks per game on the season. 

It will be the Magic defense though that shuts down the Hawks in Game 1. My simulator shows a high probability that the Hawks will score less than 86 points in Game 1. Note that the Hawks are just 1-8 ATS in road games when they score 86 or less points in a game this season.

Well despite Dwight Howard, despite ESPN and despite John Ryan picking the Magic, it was the Hawks that came out and threw the best laid plans from the window. They took game one 103-93!

Dwight Howard wasn't about to let Atlanta spoil things for him again. He scored the last second shot in the first half, giving the Magic a 6 point lead, not to mention 24 points and 11 rebounds in the first half alone! He would finish with 33 points and 19 boards on the night.

Atlanta did manage to fight back within 2 with a minute left, but the effort wasnt good enough as Orlando evened the series with a 88-82 win. The Magic were 9 point favorites, and SBR's Joe C. called it correctly by picking the Hawks to keep it within the spread.

The Magic fell in their third game against the Atlanta, as Jamal Crawford led the Hawks to the 88-84 win. Joe C. recomended that bettors take the Hawks at +2, and sure enough they came out with a big home win to take the series lead, 2-1.

The dogs are having their days! The Hawks are now just one win away from dumping the Magic out of the playoffs and causing quite the upset. Sunday nights game finished up Atlanta 88, Orlando 85.

Dwight Howard might as well have been invisible, as he only provided one fieldgoal for the Magic in tame 5. This didn'e stop Orlando though, as they took a 23 point lead by halftime. They did not look like a team facing elimination as they went on to destroy the Hawks 101-76. The two now prepare for game 5 as the Magic now look to have the momentum.

Western Conference

Los Angeles Lakers hosting New Orleans

Monumental mismatch as the LA Lakers have far too much size and length for the New Orleans Hornets to defend consistently over a 48 minute game and 7 game series. I think the Lakers will sweep and move strongly into the second round of the playoffs. There is no doubt that head coach Phil Jackson wants to retire with his 12th NBA Championship and there is no doubt that Kobe Bryant is still the most indomitable player in playoff situations. 

Chris Paul has guided his Hornets team into the playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons, but experience alone will not be enough to compete with the Lakers. Moreover, the Lakers have posted the best shooting percentage defense and rebounding margin the Western Conference reflecting how tough they can play when in ‘lock down’ defensive mode. 

For Game 1 my simulator shows a high probability that the Lakers defense will be successful and hold the Hornets to 87 to 92 points. Note that the Lakers are a solid 163-84 ATS when they allow 87 to 92 points in a game since 1996. 

Should have known! If the Lakers have a bogey team, it is the New Orleans Hornets and they proved yet again that in spite of the gap in talent any team can win on the night. 109-100!

Game two played out in the predicted fashion. The Lakers were able to bounce back and beat the Hornets, in a game where Kobe walked away with only 11 points. Chris Paul tried his best, but the Lakers managed to hold onto the lead for most of the game, and eventually evened the series with a 87-78 win.

With the series tied at 1 each, the two headed into game three looking to take the series lead. Pau Gasol had been playing horrible up to this point, and in game three it seem that he finally has found his shot again. Gasol scored 17, while Kobe took a break from covering Chris Paul to score 30 points on the night. Bynum did have an injury scare as he tweaked his knee slightly, but at this point he looks good to continue.

Bob Harvey had called for the Hornets to cover in this game, but they failed to do so, as the Lakers pulled out their best shooting performance of the playoffs so far.

Game four saw Chris Paul dominate with a triple double and the Hornets winning by 93-88. Series tied and the reigning champs will need to dig deep.

Truth be told, the Lakers are just to big for the Hornets. While three New Orleans players scored over 20 points, their inability to get inside kept them from getting key rebounds and allowed the Lakers to take the 106-90 win. 

There was some concern surrounding the ankle of Kobe Bryant, his team leading 19 point performance proved that he is fit to play, and will be ready for game 5 where he and the LA can take the series with a win.

Dallas hosting Portland

Somehow, the Dallas Mavericks will have to find a way to win on the road in the playoffs and rid themselves of the horrid 2-13 record in road playoff games. They lose a game at home and it becomes nearly impossible for them to recover and regain home court advantage. Moreover, they rank 24th in rebounding differential and rank 21st in total rebounding averaging 48.5 boards per game. 

Dallas has the second highest payroll in the NBA, but has not advanced past the second round of the playoffs since 2006. The Portland Trail Blazers are tough minded team and LaMarcus Aldridge creates matchup problems for the Mavericks. I think the Mavericks will advance, but it will not an easy task.

In Game 1 Dallas is favored by five points and I like them to cover this number. Note that Dallas is a solid 22-10 ATS after three or more consecutive wins this season; 14-6 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season. Dallas in Game 1 and play them to advance to round 2 of the Western Conference playoffs. 

Phew, back to winning ways! The Mavs were installed as 5.5 point favorites and covered the spread finishing up as eight point winners 81-89.

Game 2 fell right into the same storyline we have seen in most of the playoff games to this point, they were neck and neck. Neither team took a commanding lead untill Dirk Nowitzki sparked a fouth quarter run. His 33 points proved to be the key difference maker in this game, as the Mavericks take the home court win 101-89.

This game went over the projected total of 183, but ScottK had predicted the Trail Blazers to cover the 3.5 point spread. A valient 4th quarter effort by the Mavericks kept this pick from cashing for us.

Many handicappers saw the Mavericks taking game 3 even with the odds against them. Dallas had taken the first two games of the series in straight up wins, while also covering. Well, in the third game the Trail Blazers finally got their act together. Portland took the home win 97-92 and now only trail the Mavericks by 1 game.

It's all tied up, just as Scott predicted. The Trail Blazers, led by Brandon Roy, fought back from 18 down in the fourth quarter to take a 2 point win. The final score of 82-84 fell short of the 187 total that had been set. 

Game 5 saw the Mavericks go hot and the Blazers go cold. It ended 93-82 with Dallas easily covering the 4.5 points on the board.

San Antonio hosting Memphis

This is a series that could see a major upset. The dominant reason is that the San Antonio Spurs lack team speed and were exposed in that area in last year’s playoff to the Phoenix Suns. Memphis has the personnel to run the Spurs off the court. 

The Memphis Grizzlies sport the fourth best fast break scoring team in the NBA averaging 16.5 points per game from fast break opportunities. With every missed Spurs shot the Grizzlies will look to score on the fast break in transition. This higher paced style of game will wear down the veteran Spurs team and Memphis just might be able to win this series. 

The Spurs are not a defensively aggressive style of team and the simulator shows a high probability that Memphis will not commit more than 12 turnovers in this game. In past games Memphis is a solid 24-10 ATS in games where they commit 12 or fewer turnovers this season.

So the upset is on! The Spurs have been on fire most of the season but in the first round of the playoffs they may have met their match. Game one ended with the Grizzlies 101 and the Spurs 98.

All of game two's pre-game hype surrounded Manu Ginobli and his status. Not only did Ginobli play, but he led the Spurs to a victory as he posted a team high 17 points on the night. Veteran Tim Duncan also muscled in 16 points and had 10 rebounds.

As JoeC. called it, Memphis kept it's intensity alive in game two but just couldnt keep up with the San Antonio. The Grizzlies did cover the 8 point spread, but ultimately fell 87-93.

Yet another nail biter as the Memphis Grizzlies slid past the Spurs 91-88 barely taking the 2 point spread. Joe has been pretty spot on with this series, and this game was no different as he took Memphis at -2.

Well I told you it had the potential for a major upset. The Spurs are staring at a first round exit having gone 3-1 down in the series with a loss last night, and a big loss, 86-104.

The Spurs pratically had their season ended as they trailed by 3 with only seconds left. Manu Ginobli wasn't ready to go on vacation yet, and sunk a crucial basket with only 2 seconds remaining. Yet, after some freethrows the spurs trailed by 3 once again, but this time with 1.7 seconds left. Spurs' Gary Neal steped up and took the big shot and sunk it, taking things into overtime. 

The overtime was run by none other than Tony Parker, as he led the Spurs to a 110-103 win, as San Antonio has another chance to get the job done.

Oklahoma City hosting Denver

This is arguably the most competitive of the Western Conference Series and the most difficult to get a read on for wagering. The Oklahoma City Thunder are the youngest team in the playoffs being led by a pair of 22-year olds in NBA scoring champion Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. They almost knocked off the Lakers in the first round last year and now have the experience and further developed basketball skills and team chemistry to carry them into the second round. 

The Denver Nuggets traded Carmelo Anthony to the Knicks and ironically became a better team. I strongly believe it was a relief to those remaining members that the trade saga was over when he was moved to New York and allowed them and the new additions to focus on just playing team basketball. 

The team transformed themselves into the best offensive team in the NBA averaging 107.5 points per game and averaged 122.3 points per game spanning the last three regular season games. However, defense wins in the playoffs and it will be very tough for Denver to outscore the Thunder in four of these seven games. 

Supporting Oklahoma City in Game 1 is a system that has produced a 42-12 ATS record for 78% winners since 1996. Play against road dogs off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as a dog and with this game involving two good teams winning between 60 to 75% of their games on the season.

Well it was a competitive as we hoped, well perhaps a little too close. Thunder took game one in the series but couldnt cover.

In the second game it was all Thunder, as Oklahoma City even had a 19 point lead in the second quarter. While the Nuggets would fight back, for the most part they couldn't get within single digits of Durant and crew, and the rest was history. OKC took the series to 2-0 with the 106-89 win.

ScottK had predicted that Oklahoma City would take the win and beat the spread, and also called for the rest of the team to step up. He couldnt of been more right, as the Durant and Westbrook show had a new supporting cast. James Harden came off the bench and scored 18 with 5 rebounds, while Collison and Ibaka also scored in the double digits.

With more guys getting involved in the OKC offence, this might be a team to watch.

Durant and Westbrook are two highly talented players, but as noted, they are going to need some help if they want to have a shot at the title. 

Help came in the form of Serge Ibaka, as he tied his career high with 22 points, with an added 16 rebounds. The Thunder are up 3-0, and with some much needed help showing up, this team will continue to improve.

The Nuggets just avoided the first round sweep last night as they closed out a tight game 104-101. Ty Lawson had a career playoff high score with 27 and Felton hit four clutch free throws to win it.

All the Thunder needed was a win tonight to end the series, and it didn't come easy. The entire game was a battle back and forth without either side taking a commanding lead. It all came down to the hands talents of Kevin Durant, as he helped the Thunder claw ahead, and after a last second 3 from Aaron Afflalo fell to hit, Oklahoma City took the series. Durant would finish with 41 points.

Scott Krones called it right, taking the Nuggets to cover the 7 point spread.