The Mavericks are coming off a hard-fought win on their floor over the Lakers, and Dallas won't have enough in the tank to get the road cover at the Atlanta Hawks.

As we head down south to the bottom of the map, it’s hard not to witness the love that comes out of Atlanta. They call Atlanta the New York City of the south, and with the resurrection of their home team, it’s no wonder why the dirty birds are flying high.

SBR BasketballThese days a ticket to see the likes of Josh Smith, Mike Bibby, Al Horford, Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford is hard to come by. The Highlight Factory employees would like nothing more than to continue their high wire act against the visiting Dallas Mavericks who come into town riding a five-game winning streak.

Dallas has to be feeling unstoppable after pulling out a squeaker against Kobe and the Lakers. Dallas is 3-0 SU and 1-2 ATS this year after playing the Lakers. That’s not that surprising considering that 12 different teams – Mavs, Cavs, Nuggets, Celtics, Jazz, Suns, Rockets, Clippers, Blazers, Spurs, Raptors and Grizzlies – all had outstanding games after playing the Lakers, going 19-7 SU and 15-9 ATS combined.

Sounds like easy money taking the Mavs in this game right? Well maybe not. The reason as to why it will be different in Atlanta this time is Atlanta has moved up into the top-5 as far as being the most physical team in the NBA. When we say physical, we mean hard-nosed.

Look for the Hawks to use their superior strength in the paint, and force their will on the Mavs who are already challenged by being on the back end of a back-to-back scenario.

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With Dirk Nowitzki averaging 23-12, 28-8, 28-4, 27-12, 23-7 in points and rebounds over the years against Atlanta, Dallas pretty much dominated them. At present Dallas has made some major changes to their lineup and lack cohesion. This lack of chemistry will help the Hawks cause to pick up a win in this game.

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All one needs to do is look at the spread difference over the last five years. Until this time last year, Dallas had always been a heavy favorite on the road against Atlanta by an average of eight points. Atlanta is a 3 ½-point favorite in this game, which we feel is justifiable due to its stellar 22-6 record at home with a corresponding 18-10 ATS record.

  • Atlanta is 17-10 on one day rest, whereas Dallas is 11-18 ATS on the road with one day of rest.
  • Atlanta is 4-1 ATS at home the last five games versus Dallas.

An interesting wagering tip going forward after the completion of this game; Dallas is 4-3 SU but a whopping 0-7 ATS after playing the more physical squads in the NBA this year (Cavs twice,  Celtics, Hawks, Nuggets twice, and Orlando).

Now you know what to do after tomorrow's game when Dallas plays New Orleans on the last day of the month!

Free Pick: Hawks -3½ (-110)