Basketball Picks for Today: Winnin’ with Swingin’

SJ is locked and loaded for Saturday NCAA and NBA hoops.

Season Record:

2011 NFL:  48-33-7 (+34.75 units)

NCAA:  16-12-1   (+/- 0 units)

NBA:    1-1   (+0.7 units)

All bets are weighted between 1 and 5 units.

Last Week:

Where our big money free picks rescued us during the football season, as well as a torrid run near the end, they are hindering our progress in NCAA hoops.  Last week another highly rated play flamed when the Murray State Racers turned from Cinderella into a pumpkin in a game that we just wanted to stay close.  Yes, it was close throughout but eventually Marquette dribbled out of the gymnasium with a 62-53 victory and the all important cover.  That was our play of the day and it cost us 4.4 units.

Let's just get all the bad news right out of the way and talk about our inability to cash with Over 128 in the Louisville/New Mexico game.  As stated in my article last week (just so you know I'm not passing the buck) this was not my play.  It was actually a strong play from a handicapper whom I respect very much and who has been absolutely burying the books in college basketball.  So, in the interest of full disclosure and not wanting to steal anyone's thunder, I revealed that this was the case and I was putting my fate in his capable hands.  That's what you get when you fall backwards and expect to be caught by your buddy standing directly behind you but he gets distracted and you crack your head on the concrete.  Same thing here and our trust cost us 3.3 units.

So those were our two losers but we did get well with the other three.  Syracuse -4.5 positively buried Kansas State which clicked for 2 units.  We then cashed with Kentucky as 11 point favorites over Iowa State for 3 units.  And finally, in our lone NBA play the Nuggets -6 over the Celtics put 3 units towards the positive side of the ledger.  After all that, we wound up only +0.3 units but had a whole lotta fun in the process.  Adding a little color, preferably green, to our wallets will be even more fun this week so let's take a look at what Saturday March 24^th holds in store for us.

4:30 PM ET - Florida vs. Louisville 

Coaches Billy Donovan and Rick Pitino will be getting an early start to their 25^th Providence College reunion when the Friars made an improbable run to the Final Four.  Donovan was a plodding white kid who had basically given up and Pitino was the young flashy coach who built up his self-esteem.  The two have been best friends ever since.  Nice story Swinger but what the hell has that got to do with today's game?  Nothing, but just thought I'd share  a sweet little story before I give you the hand grenade to drop in your bookmakers bunker, baby (nothing like a little alliteration to make a point).

The teacher is 6-0 in head to head matchups over the pupil but Pitino's squads were always deeper than those Donovan could trot on to the court.  But today's game is different.  Donovan has a nice backcourt with freshman Bradley Beal and three point sniper Kenny Boynton.  Pitino's current Louisville edition upset the highly touted Michigan State Spartans but that was due to a suffocating defense and a dominating performance by the Sultan of Swat himself, Gorgui Dieng, who matched an NCAA school record for blocked shots in a tournament game with seven.  MSU was confounded but the Cardinals had trouble offensively as well until they started burying treys.

This matchup will be a bit more difficult for Louisville because Bradley Beal is simply unconscious.  The Cardinals may have shot their load  against MSU and they will be more susceptible to the bombs from downtown that both Beal and Boynton are capable of raining.  Florida has a better percentages in field goals, three pointers and free throws than Louisville but Louisville does have the shutdown defense.  Nevertheless, with a total that currently sits at 131 ½ this indicates a game that will be more offensive minded than Louisville would like.  Yes, the Cards have won and covered seven in a row but the Gators have dismantled their tournament opponents by scores of 71-45, 84-50 and finally 68-58 over Marquette.

The Florida Gators are too good offensively and are capable enough defensively to shutdown Louisville and advance to the Final Four.  Play Florida -0.5 (-120) for 4 units.

7:05 PM ET - Ohio State vs. Syracuse

The Orangemen have already gotten two scares in having only played three games in the tournament thus far.  They were headed for an early exit against 16^th seeded UNC-Asheville but escaped, rebounded with a nice win and cover over Kansas State but then had all they could handle in a one point victory over Wisconsin.  The  absence of Fab Melo has manifested itself throughout and they will miss him more than ever tonight against the Buckeyes.

Ohio State has the perimeter presence to rain the treys and make Syracuse play catch up.  They are big enough down the middle to cause problems for the Orange on both ends of the court.  The Buckeyes should win this one convincingly but we will play it safe and on the money line so we don't get nipped if it's a close contest.  Play Ohio State -145 on the money line for 3 units.

7:05 PM ET  Atlanta Hawks vs. Washington Wizards

The Hawks have won and covered against the Wizards in both meetings this season and have won 9 of their last 10 straight up against Washington, having covered in 7 of those 10.  The Hawks have won their nine games against Washington by an average of over eleven points per game.  In other words, when these teams play, Atlanta wins and they win big.  The Hawks are playoff bound while the Wizards are moribund. 

Now before you go to the ATM to gather your bankroll to plunk on the Hawks, understand they are playing in the second of back to back games and that is always cause for pause.  We will tread a bit more lightly than I would like and play Atlanta -3 for 2 units.